The protest continues in Iraq where a civil disobedience movement has paralyzed roads, oil infrastructure and administrations since 3 November. Protesters still claim "the fall of the regime" incarnated by the political class, considered corrupt and incompetent.
The country has again turned violent with clashes in central Baghdad on Monday (November 4th), which have claimed new lives among the protesters. Since October 1, date of the beginning of the popular uprising, about 270 people have been killed, mainly demonstrators - according to the data compiled by AFP, the authorities having stopped communicating a current balance sheet.
On the side of the political class, the impasse is total and the different camps which dominate the Parliament delay to agree to decide the fate of the Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi, rejected by the street.
The influential Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr, who has been demanding since the beginning of October the resignation of a government he helped to form a year ago, also seems overwhelmed by the situation.
To understand what is happening in Iraq, France 24 interviewed Adel Bakawan, director of the Center for Sociology of Iraq, University of Soran and author of The Impossible State of Iraq, Editions of L'Harmattan (March 2019)
France 24 - By standing on the side of the street, Moqtada al-Sadr can offer a way out of the crisis in Iraq?
Adel Bakawan: While it is undeniable that Moqtada al-Sadr is one of the major figures on the Iraqi political spectrum, he can not yet embody the solution. This spontaneous protest movement was forged outside its circles of influence, limited to the Shia community, unlike the 2016 protests it had initiated. The majority of today's protesters are essentially from a new generation left to their own devices. She has not known the totalitarian regime of Saddam Hussein and is out of step with the political elite in power. Many people are aware that Moqtada al-Sadr is part of this elite which he himself demands to leave. It must be remembered that while Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi, who is now being lashed out by the protesters, is in this position, it is largely thanks to the decisive support of Moqtada al-Sadr. Without him, he would not have had a majority in Parliament.
Yet Moqtada al-Sadr sided with the demonstrators from the beginning of the crisis. He even participated in a demonstration in Najaf last week.
Moqtada al-Sadr is a pragmatic fundamentalist religious leader. He analyzes the local, regional and international balance of power, before changing his positioning according to his interests and those of his mobility. If he adopted all the demands of the protesters at the beginning of the demonstrations, demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister and the organization of early elections, he has since moderated several times his position, proposing only to replace Adel Abdel Mahdi. It must also be said that he tried to exploit the demonstrations at the expense of his rivals, including Hadi al-Ameri, leader of the pro-Iranian paramilitaries of Hachd al-Shaabi. His position is very complex and sometimes makes him inaudible because he wants to be both in opposition, presenting himself as the defender of the excluded, and at the same time at the heart of power (his movement is the first force in Parliament). If he is undeniably a very popular personality in the Shiite community - he can count on a strong, militant, broad and faithful base - he is nonetheless left out of this sphere, he is rejected like all the political class in the country.
How do you see the next events? Is there a scenario that can lift the country out of the crisis?
The country is at a dead end. At this time, there is no prospect of a way out of the crisis, neither on the side of power, nor of the protesters who maintain radical demands. Ulcerated by the socio-economic situation of the country, they continue to demand the fall of a regime that they accuse of being corrupt and the source of their misfortunes. And they are determined. Despite all its political weight, Moqtada al-Sadr, nor any other political actor, can not weigh the fate of the protest movement. Nobody can decide on its continuity or its end in the place of the population.