The long-delayed and long-proclaimed Turkish operation in northern Syria has begun. After an aerial bombardment, Turkish troops crossed the border and began to advance deep into the former US occupation zone. Turks fight with pro-American forces in the territory east of the Euphrates River and push them from the border. The backbone of pro-American forces is made up of Kurdish nationalists: they decided to use the civil war to carve out a piece of Syria.
The patriots of Syria have a dual attitude to what is happening. It’s good that the Americans are being persecuted. The Turks are pressed by Kurdish nationalist police: they not only entered into a close alliance with the United States and Israel, but, according to some reports, carried out violent ethnic cleansing of the local Arab population, trying to create Syrian Kurdistan. But if a zone emerges in the territory liberated from the Kurds, in which anti-Assad Islamic militants will dominate, the result will be disastrous. Radish horseradish is not sweeter.
The campaign that has begun is accompanied by a large amount of military propaganda. Kurds shout about the upcoming "genocide" and about "ethnic cleansing." The Kurds recall their victories over Daesh *, but also threaten to activate the "caliphate" in a new way. They express this threat in the diplomatic language - we have, they say, thousands of captured Islamist fighters, we will have to release them if the Turks advance, but this does not make the threat and blackmail more acceptable.
Europeans oppose the Turkish offensive. This is a violation of Syrian sovereignty, they say. For some reason, they did not recall Syrian sovereignty when American divisions and their Kurdish allies were deployed there. Brussels does not like the Turkish plan to move millions of Syrian refugees back to Syria - in the territory freed from Kurdish-American troops. Brussels wants refugees to remain in Turkey and gradually penetrate into Europe. And since the citizens of the European Union, unlike their leadership, do not want an influx of Middle Eastern refugees at all, authorities say that the Turkish operation will cause a new wave of refugees in Europe.
In the United States, President Trump has taken a sane stand - for curtailing a military presence in the Middle East. “Enough senseless Middle Eastern wars,” he said. But Trump's opponents want America to fight further.
They call Trump's reasonable and half-hearted decision to withdraw American troops from the north of the occupation zone "a stab in the back" and "betrayal of the Allied Kurds."
Trump does not see the need to fight for the Kurds, but even his Ministry of Defense - the Pentagon - does not agree with him.
Turks say their plans are limited: push the Kurds back from the border, disrupt the Syrian Kurdistan’s venture, and transfer refugees from Turkey there. President Erdogan knows that his citizens are fed up with millions of Syrian refugees. If he doesn’t figure out how to drive them back to Syria, the Turks can drive him away: a rehearsal of this scenario has already been lost in Istanbul, where citizens voted for the opposition, which promised to make peace with Assad and expel the Syrians.
Israel supports the Kurds. The creation of Syrian Kurdistan (and before that - Iraqi Kurdistan, and if you're lucky - also Kurdistan in Anatolia and Iran) has always been part of the plans of the Israelis. Pro-Israel forces in Europe and America also play for the Kurds. They demand the creation of Kurdistan under the Israeli-American protectorate, having cut it from Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. The implementation of such a plan can raise a wave of refugees in the tens of millions of people, which, of course, is completely satisfied with Israel: it does not take refugees.
Russia's position is the most fair: the Kurds should return under the rule of Damascus. Stop your romance with the United States, become again faithful citizens of your homeland - Syria, and everything will work out for you. Last year, the Kurds sent a delegation to Damascus and discussed reconciliation, but then they did not want to get off the fence, hoping for American support. Now the situation has changed, and they could replay - go to the side of Assad.
Unlike Brussels, Moscow is sympathetic to Ankara’s motives. However, Turkey, of course, is not satisfied with the emergence of a Kurdish enclave on the Syrian side of the border.
Now the Middle East needs reconciliation, Moscow believes. Syria's integrity under Damascus is the key to reconciliation.
At the same time, a process of constitutional settlement will be launched, which will help to peacefully resolve differences between communities. The withdrawal of American troops, and then the Turkish units will bring peace to Syria.
The chances of realizing Moscow’s plans are not bad. One of the main instigators of the Syrian catavasia - Saudi Arabia - was defeated in Yemen and is no longer eager for battle. In the United States, power is paralyzed by the conflict between President Trump and the “deep state,” that is, power structures that use the Democratic Party for their own purposes. President Erdogan is in constant contact with President Putin, as is Iran’s leadership. This allows you to experience cautious optimism, but much will depend on the course of hostilities.
* “Islamic State” (IG, Daesh) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.