The postponement of the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from the villages of Zolotoye and Petrovskoye is not due to the fact that the shelling could not be stopped, as announced by the president of Ukraine. The decision to postpone the fulfillment of one of the prerequisites for the meeting of the Norman Four put forward by Moscow is a reaction to the actions of the Ukrainian right-wing radicals. The leader of the National Corps party and the ex-commander of the Azov regiment Andrei Biletsky established a checkpoint near the Zolotoy Zolotoy, in addition, his people took control of the village itself. Biletsky promised that his thugs would necessarily occupy those positions from which units of the Armed Forces would be withdrawn in order to block the process of separation of forces.
This is the first serious crisis that the Zelensky team faced. Moreover, the fact that Azov is a unit of the National Guard, a structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, gives the situation special legal specificity. This is an open rebellion. The Ukrainian leadership decided to create demilitarized zones in two settlements, the military personnel of one of the official units left the command and stood on the contact line in disagreement with the policy of the authorities. From a legal point of view, a number of criminal offenses have been committed. Biletsky and his people should be immediately detained and taken to jail.
But nothing of the kind happens. Both Zelensky and Interior Minister Arsen Avakov chose not to notice the flagrant demarche of the nationalists. Experts believe that the head of the power department, who was believed to control the National Guard, is playing his game in the hope of strengthening his position. It is highly likely that he expects to “sell” to the president a solution to the problem in exchange for retaining his ministerial position for a long term. Talk about Avakov’s imminent resignation has been going on for a month now.
The Norman Four summit in Paris, scheduled for October 25, was in jeopardy. If by October 14 (this is a new date for the withdrawal of AFU units) something could not be done with Biletsky, then the summit will definitely not take place. Its failure will be a colossal foreign policy failure of Zelensky, who for a long time insisted on the speedy conduct of negotiations within the framework of the Norman format.
The situation has several development options. If Biletsky’s nomination to Zolotoye is a thoughtful move by the Minister of the Interior, there’s a chance that Zelensky will “buy” from Avakov the quick surrender of the neo-Nazi from Azov.
If the latter acted independently (and it seems that this is exactly how things are), then it is necessary to conduct a military operation in order to remove the annoying and discrediting obstacle to holding the Norman meeting. This task is not very difficult, because, as Ukrainian media write, there are only a dozen fighters in Zolotoy.
However, it is highly doubtful that Zelensky would go into open conflict with the radicals. Until now, he frankly gave every time, when they accused him of betraying national interests and surrendering all the won positions, political and military, to the enemy. After agreeing on a single revision of the Steinmeier formula, the president began to explain that the formula is not what is written in it, but something completely opposite. As for the elections in the Donbass, Ukraine will be able to gain control over the border with Russia, and the law on the special status of “certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions” should be rewritten altogether.
The fact that Bankova was afraid to give a proper legal assessment of Biletsky’s actions is a direct indication of the weakness of the ruling team. 900 shells fired in recent days on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic, including Donetsk itself, are also evidence of open disobedience of the armed forces, in which the same right-wing radicals set the tone.
Nevertheless, the minimum chance that the president will be able to resolve the unexpected crisis remains. The oligarchic business that is behind Zelensky and runs Ukraine on his behalf may be determined to fight back the neo-Nazis. Otherwise, they actually lose power over the country. It is again intercepted by the radicals, who do not enjoy any serious support from the population and therefore have failed to show even a minimal result in the parliamentary elections. This will be the next coup in Ukraine, only less noticeable than in 2014. Nationalist forces do not need to seize government buildings and drive the president out of the country. They are able to rule the state from Zolotoy and Petrovsky.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.