Every morning, Etienne Lefebvre decrypts one of the most important economic news of the day.
The accounts of the SNCF return in the green since the beginning of the year. Is the company finally on the right track?
In any case, Guillaume Pepy was able to savor the figures published yesterday, the last before he bows out. The attendance of the TGV is in good shape: + 11% in the first half, compared to 2017 (the figures for 2018 were skewed by strikes). The traffic also leaps in the TER. And profitability is at the rendezvous, thanks to record filling rates: 77% on average for the TGV, and up to 89% on the South-East axis in June. So how to explain this express cure of the TGV, who was the big patient three years ago? This is the success of low cost Ouigo, whose park continues to expand. 50% of customers who use it would not have taken the train otherwise. It is also the success of a more rational policy: fewer loss-making services, and double-level trains wherever demand is strong. Symbol of this return to grace: the unexpected order of 12 new TGV trains.
And this time, it is not to please Alstom?
No, there is even urgency according to the SNCF. Nothing to do with the famous order of autumn 2016, carried out directly by the State to save the site of Belfort. TGVs that had to circulate to start on the line Intercités Marseille-Bordeaux because the SNCF did not really need! Well finally, they really served at high speed. And the announcement of this Wednesday is really timely for Alstom. The SNCF had already made a mega order of 100 new generation trains, what is called "the TGV of the future", but not before 2023 and in the meantime, there were two years of hole in the load plan. The hole is filled. A concern less for Belfort, where we are worried about the future of the site of General Electric.
A table as bright, it is rare concerning the SNCF?
Rest assured, there are still black spots. And big ones! Freight first. Turnover continues to decline, despite rail highways that combine rail and truck transport. And then the opening to competition is approaching for the transport of passengers, with the fear of seeing new players truster the most profitable lines. Finally, the debt is still growing, to more than 50 billion. Then the state will take a large part (this is provided in the reform voted last year) but in return, the SNCF must improve productivity, and it is only at the beginning of the road. With pension reform coming (the end of special schemes is scheduled), the social climate will be heavy. The successor of Guillaume Pepy will have some serious challenges.