What if Bin Salman had overcome his current plight and become king of Saudi Arabia?

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It is no secret that Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is undergoing a severe and existential crisis for him. His popularity has declined greatly following the case of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and his hideous liquidation in his consulate in Istanbul. After this case, the world almost lined up against him and denounced Accusing him of involvement in it, and no one is left behind except the owner of the White House, US President Donald Trump, who does not guarantee one of his positions and determine his policies, especially if all the papers unfolded and revealed the truth about the file of Khashoggi.

But what is more important is that if Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the royal family can overcome this crisis and pass through the most difficult phase of the royal family, Recent decades? What if the young prince - who has the unbridled ambition and keenness to receive the throne - became king of Saudi Arabia and the author of the first and last word officially after he controlled the joints of the state in the name of his father and indirectly?

Two assumptions about Saudi politics if bin Salman becomes king

If the young prince manages to overcome the Khashoggi crisis and reach the throne in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom will be faced with two different realities. These two different realities and the contrasting of the two stems in fact from Bin Salman's understanding and understanding - if he becomes king - and what lessons he has learned from the Khashoggi crisis and other The crises that Saudi Arabia has experienced in the last four years in particular. If the Saudi Crown Prince becomes king of Saudi Arabia, it is no more than two things. Either the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has been considered the lessons of the past and its events, or he is still insisting on his "shocking" political approach to the Saudi interior and abroad.

1 - Hypothesis of the preaching of bin Salman of his previous mistakes and correct his policies
In the event that Prince Mohammed bin Salman was considered one of the mistakes of the past and his lessons, and the failure of his repeated policies, he may succeed and restore the relative political stability of the region. Approved in the Kingdom. In this case, Bin Salman's first step will be to stop the war in Yemen, to end the siege imposed on Qatar, to call for a constructive and genuine dialogue with it, to stop the hostile rhetoric towards Iran and to find other ways to deal with it instead of attacking it. . It may also open a new page with Turkey as a country of regional and global significance and influence.

Of course, this Saudi revision of its foreign policies follows a change in dealing with the current of Arab revolutions and the so-called political Islam groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic movements such as the Renaissance, Hamas and the Yemeni reform. There are no doubt that these supposed changes will create new problems for Saudi Arabia with Egypt and the UAE in particular, but with certainty, these future and potential problems will not be as severe and dangerous as the Saudi crisis is now in crisis with Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Arab world towards its leadership and current strategy. At the internal level, the most important step that Saudi Arabia might take if it decides to change its policies is to release political and social detainees, advocates and activists in Saudi Arabia and to open a new page that contributes to a kind of community reconciliation.

But there is an urgent question here: How is the Saudi Crown Prince's mentality, which planned to assassinate journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the atrocity that Turkish and American sources talked about, to absorb the lesson and reconsider its stalled policies and strategy in the region? Ministers of a sovereign state to resign, or someone who has suddenly decided to lead a quadripartite alliance to block a sister country and make demands that lack rationality and a sordid childish outlook on politics, how such a ruler can grasp the lessons of the past and rethink his own reality and wrong approach. This is why we tend to believe that Bin Salman, in the event of overcoming the current crisis - and not being isolated and dismissed - as is the case in this regard - it will be more brutal and shocking in its internal and external policies, and the spirit of revenge will be entrenched against all those who consider it an enemy in a Khashoggi crisis And other crises, because in short he is captive to the spirit of psychological tyranny and there is no system of his life and ethics, and all his affairs resemble the disorder is not arranged in which he follows without a face as stated by the Kawakibi in "nature."

2 - the hypothesis of not preaching bin Salman mistakes of the past
Based on the concrete evidence in Saudi policies under the leadership of the Saudi Crown Prince in the last four years, we tend to believe that Bin Salman will not be considered one of his previous mistakes. He will be more aggressive in his internal and external policies, and the region and the Saudi interior are coming to a new reality. The young prince is king.

The Saudi interior

Saudi Arabia is expected to experience a severe social crisis. Saudi society is known for its strong religious and tribal traditions, while the Saudi leadership seeks to change this society and its traditions and to spread "non-political secularism" (which is limited to social life and formality). Individual authoritarian rule will create Saudi Arabia a problem with the powerful religious establishment, as well as the conservative society. This social and internal rift may result in a state of societal hatred which is a deadly poison and the biggest cause of intolerance, delay, Ibn Khaldun in his introduction.

After all the criticism and distortion that Saudi Arabia has suffered because of Bin Salman and his policies, it is difficult for the world to appreciate and respect this country if the Saudis insist on Toliya bin Salman as King of Saudi Arabia

Reuters

The reality of the region if Bin Salman became king of Saudi Arabia

Under the rule of Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia will witness further conflict and conflict. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Qatar will continue and the fierce media war will continue. The Cold War between Saudi Arabia and Iran will continue if there are no practical mechanisms for negotiation and dialogue between the two important Islamic countries. That the situation in Yemen will continue to be the same as the war and internal conflict and chaos in the provinces of Yemen, especially the southern provinces controlled by Saudi Arabia and the UAE and its Yemeni allies. The state of war, whether diplomatic or military, will continue between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.

the world

What Saudi Arabia is expected to face at the international level is also more weakness and decline in playing a real and important role. After all the criticism and distortion that Saudi Arabia has suffered because of Bin Salman and his policies, it is difficult for the world to appreciate this country and respect it if the Saudis insist on Tuliah bin Salman Saudi. The world under bin Salman may witness more conflicts, especially if Bin Salman remains on his path without a radical rethinking of his policies. In this context, the Washington Post reported Tuesday (December 11th) The case of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi for the world, for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "If Bin Laden remains convinced that he will not face any significant consequences for his brutality, we can expect more bloodshed in Saudi Arabia, Yemen and even elsewhere," he said, .