On this night, Shinzo Abe decided to sign an eternal peace with Russia. And maybe he did not dare. The history of approaches to the signing of the world and, accordingly, to the solution of the question of the northern territories (they are also the southern Kuriles) has been around for many decades, and it is not very clear why in January 2019 the Gordian knot will suddenly be taken and chopped.
In principle, a peace treaty that satisfies both parties is better to have than not to have - no one disputes this. The question is how to achieve mutual satisfaction, under what conditions. As well, and why all of a sudden such a rush and fever - "grab the station, the suitcase leaves."
With every political decision, it is customary to calculate the possible pros and cons that will follow from it, compared to the status quo. Obviously, the justification of peace with Japan should be of this kind: “We did not have various benefits (attached list) of the peace treaty with Japan. Now we have them. ” But it is with the specification of the benefits there is a great lack of clarity. Either they forget to tell (and this is interesting), or the treatise on the world is in itself the highest good (as a tomos for Poroshenko), for the sake of which you give everything - and it is not a pity. Persuasiveness does not add.
But it is on the official level. On the unofficial, picoikolettsky (i.e., “Briand is the head” and “Black Sea will be declared a free city”), the transfer of possible future benefits still takes place.
The first benefit concerns everyone and that the fact that, having signed the peace, Japan will cancel the anti-Russian sanctions for the Crimea, or at least significantly soften them.
After such speeches, all that remains is to ask: “Where is the estate and where is the flood?” The hypothetical peace treaty is aimed at finally resolving the problems that have been going on since 1945, when Japan capitulated to the United Nations. Anti-Russian sanctions (in which, by the way, Japan is not very zealous, rather in the genre of “yes, let it go”) is a manifestation of the solidarity of the united West, dissatisfied with the modern features of Russian politics, in particular the annexation of Crimea. At least this is the official explanation.
Moreover, such countries as Italy, for example, have joined the sanctions (formally, and so have no particular zeal), which in general are not shared by any contradictions with Russia. It comes for the sake of solidarity with western partners who might otherwise take revenge, and Azonia, happy, saw all these sanctions in a coffin. And not only she. Question: why Japan, even the one who signed the peace treaty, is not built in exactly the same way? You can, of course, dream of breaking through the chain of imperialist states, but with what joy?
The second benefit is also associated with the breakthrough of the imperialist blockade, however, not all Russians will be able to enjoy it, but only the owners of large and super-large states that fit the market very successfully. Now they are not doing well, because their former safe havens from Cyprus to Maine and from the Bahamas to the Hebrides have now ceased to be so. Everywhere wool and knock the US Treasury, so that in the zone of the dollar and the euro there is nothing to catch.
Everything is unreliable, and the threat of dispossession is constantly hanging. It is necessary to shift to the yen zone - in it we will keep our assets. We will sign a peace treaty with Japan, where in the secret protocols we fix security guarantees.
The scheme is reliable, with the exception of a small nuance. Suppose the Japanese, like true samurai, will remain faithful to this protocol. But will the Americans really not notice or pretend that they have not noticed anything? It is more likely that when a sufficient number of Russian assets are gathered in the yen zone, the Minister of Finance, joyfully rubbing his hands, will say: “I have gathered you together for how many years!” And he will slam.
And what can samurai be able to do here, even if they themselves were quite disposed towards Russian offshore money? Although this is not a fact - it often happens that a service already rendered does not cost anything. Especially when the agreement is delicate and fixed in a secret protocol.
So those in the hope of glory and good should make new efforts to explain the extraordinary benefits that will follow after the signing of a peaceful treatise with the Land of the Rising Sun.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.