Russia has not abandoned the plan to radically reassure radical Islamists if they do not radiate radically on their own initiative. President Putin said something like this after the Istanbul summit. The meeting was above nowhere. Four great powers. Russia, Turkey, France and Germany. The USA and England were shining with the absence of them, but even better without them, all the more so since the United States goes to the polls in a week and now they don’t care. There was not a third partner of Russia in Astana - Iran.
Two themes dominated: one official, Syria, the other undeclared, the murder of a Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi (or Khashukji, in the Turkish manner). The rulers of the three European powers were interested to hear from President Erdogan personally how he is going to tame Saudi Arabia - and he has the means, the desire, and the acute need for this.
The discussion of Syria went on against the background of the shootings in Idlib. In September, Presidents Putin and Erdogan agreed to introduce a truce and create a deconflict zone 15-20 km wide in this Syrian province. The extreme Islamist militants had to leave the zone of contact with the army of Damascus, as well as withdraw artillery and tanks. Some groups obeyed, while others said that Putin and Erdogan are not a decree.
At a meeting in Istanbul, President Putin repeatedly stressed that he was pleased with how Turkey was implementing the September agreement. However, he said every time, still far from calm in Idlib. Putin was very polite and very diplomatic that Russia did not refuse the option of resolving the idlib problem by force. So it costs you to put things in order there, if you don’t want them to “crunch their skeleton in our heavy, tender paws”. Moreover, Syrian President Bashar Asad prefers a forceful decision - he does not believe in the possibility of reaching an agreement with the militants.
Assad can understand. The militants worked out an action algorithm. In all negotiations, they begin with the demand “Assad must leave,” after which the negotiations cease and the militants begin to appeal to the world community so that it does not allow bloodshed. This script has already passed more than once, and there was no great benefit from it. It may well be that this will happen this time.
There were neither Syrians nor Iranians at the meeting of the four great powers in Istanbul - and there can be no agreement without them. Merkel and Macron spoke so arrogantly that one could think: Assad had already captured the forces loyal to them and were going to judge him in Damascus, as Saddam Hussein had once been. Suppose, they say, the Syrian people decide the fate of Assad.
They insisted that the new Syrian Constitution be written under the supervision of the UN and with the participation of the parties to the conflict. Bashar Asad agrees with the participation of the rebels in the drafting of the Constitution, but so far the opponents of the regime could not agree among themselves.
Only enmity to Assad united them, and this is not enough. But Assad does not want the UN to lead the constitutional commission - he understands that the UN does not prepare anything good for him. Nothing good is being prepared for him, and Merkel with Macron. The two rulers said they would not allow the Syrian government army to attack Idlib militants, and especially the himatak against Idlib’s defenders. Attacks of militants on the army, they consider in the order of things.
Merkel suffered another electoral defeat the other day, Macron is losing her prestige among the people at great speed. In the meantime, a new wave of migration to Europe is rising. Therefore, Merkel and Macron would be glad if the movement of Syrian refugees home to Syria began. At the same time, they emphasize that the refugees will not be driven home, everything will pass exclusively voluntarily. And voluntarily the refugees will go home if they overthrow Assad, they say.
Everything would be bad for Assad, but there are light spots. One of them is the hostility that President Erdogan is experiencing against the Kurds in Syria. These Kurds are under American auspices and are closely related to Kurdish militants operating in Turkey. If it were not for this hostility, the Turks would have agreed with the Americans - at the expense of Damascus, and maybe at the expense of Moscow.
Another bright spot is the appearance of Russian air defense in the Syrian theater of operations and, accordingly, the cessation of Israeli bombing attacks. On the hand of Assad and strife in the United States, where people are already taking up arms.
Russia still supports the government of Bashar Assad, but not unconditionally. Russia believes: peace in Syria should be achieved through negotiations and reconciliation of the parties, when free elections at the end of the constitutional process will determine the composition of the government and the candidacy of the president. These words soothe the Europeans. But soothing words are one thing, but practical solutions are another. In the end, one of the parties will have to accept.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.