This Tuesday, the mid-term US elections will be a test for Donald Trump. Even if they are legislative (renewal of the entire House and a third of the Senate) and local elections (governors, mayors, etc.), they will take the pulse of an economically prosperous nation but socially torn.
In the United States, those who wish President Trump's disavowment put their hopes in the wrath of women candidates, propelled by the #MeToo movement, revolted by the violence that plagues politics. Trump, the misogynist, will he be defeated by feminine determination? It's a bit more complicated.
Certainly, it is indisputable that women change the electoral landscape. More and more, they engage in politics, determined to shake an old America hostile to abortion and even to contraception, minorities, arms control, the fight against global warming.
Thus, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, candidate in the House in New York State: young (29 years), Latina, feminist, charismatic, very sensitive to issues of education, health, social inequalities. This is the new icon of the generation of Millennials who want to be proud of a country where blacks, Hispanics, immigrants of all origins, LGBT minorities, gradually supplant the white nation of old. A demographic reality that shocks some of the voters and throws them into the arms of Donald Trump.
This new and more diverse America is determined to influence elections: there are 234 women in the House of Representatives, twenty-two in the Senate (thirty-five seats are available), and twelve in the governorship. A record number. Most are democrats.
No illusion
Yet, in spite of this undeniable energy, we must not expect a great electoral upheaval. The Ocasio-Cortez camp should score points in the House, maybe even get a narrow majority, but nothing is done. As for a Senate changeover, it is very unlikely: there are few Republican seats at stake and therefore little chance for Democrats to pick up new ones.
No illusions, Trump's America holds the power firmly: she has her hands on the White House, the Senate and the Supreme Court which, after the brash confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, is rooted very right for three decades. The November elections will not change either the will of Trump, with 47% approval (85% among Republicans) to run for a second term.
Especially since the economy is flourishing and a large part of Americans do not recognize themselves in any party, disinvest in politics and do not vote. And especially as despite the momentum of Millenials , the Democratic Party is torn between moderates, heirs of Obama, and radicals, disciples of the indestructible Bernie Sanders.
One thing is certain: these elections reveal a deeply divided America on its essential values, its conception of society and its vision of the world. Between Democrats and Republicans, any idea of compromise seems abandoned.
The novelty is that this political divide coincides in part with another division: 58% of women support Democrats, but only 42% of men. As if the political confrontation was also manifested by a form of war of the sexes. There is no doubt that Donald Trump is the catalyst. There is no doubt that American democracy will be weakened.