Even in the cold of spring, spring flowers burst forth.

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) announced on June 20 that it has bloomed as a representative cherry blossom cluster in Jinhae. In the case of the normal year, it will fly early six days compared with the flowering on March 26. Cherry blossoms in Nam-chun-dong, Busan, also began to bloom on the 20th. It is six days earlier than last year.

In Seoul, you can see forsythia and azalea without difficulty, and magnolia and cherry blossoms can be seen in sunny places. This year's spring blooms are early in the year because the March temperature was much higher than normal and sunshine hours were long.

If spring flowers bloom early, there is a possibility that the spring flowers may be smaller in the spring flower festival period. Considering that it takes 5 ~ 6 days from the first blooming of cherry blossoms to full bloom, Jinhae cherry blossom, which started to bloom on the 20th, is likely to be full before April 1, when the harbor will start.

● Spring flower blooming time, how fast it was?

How fast did the spring flowering bloom more and more recently bloomed? How soon will global warming continue in the middle of the 21st century, or in the second half of the 21st century? Do not you think that it is necessary to advance the festival period in order to see the flowers during the spring flower festival? Is it possible that the cherry blossom festival starts in April and that it will be held in March?

According to the Meteorological Agency's analysis of the spring flowering season in Seoul, it is believed that the forsythia bursts on March 28, in the case of normal years (1981 to 2010). The earliest year since 1973, the Pinhae began to bloom on March 19, 1990, and the earliest flowers bloomed on April 8, 1975. On average, rhododendrons bloom on March 29, similar to forsythia, and cherry blossoms burst on April 10 (see table below).

<Seoul The earliest / latest publication since 1973 (Source: Meteorological Agency)>

The timing of spring flower blooms varies greatly from year to year, but as global warming progresses, it tends to be continuous and generally accelerated (see figure below). In the 1970s, cherry blossoms in Seoul, which had been on average around April and December, are now blooming on April 6th. During the past 45 years, the flowering time has been accelerated for about six days. In the 1970s, the average azalea, which bloomed around April 3, has recently burst into a bloom on March 27. Flowers are blooming early about seven days. On the average, in the 1970s, on the 30th of March, Wongari has recently bloomed on March 28th. It will be two days faster. In the seventies, foraging had been expected to bloom on average four days earlier than azaleas, but on average, they have bloomed almost at the same time.
● What is the timing of spring flower blooming on the Korean peninsula in the 21st century?

If global warming continues in the future, how will the timing of spring blooms on the Korean peninsula change?

The results of research conducted by the National Center for Agriculture and Forestry, the National Forestry Academy, and Kyung Hee University show that the flowering time of spring flowers such as forsythia, azalea, and cherry blossom will be accelerated to some extent (Kim, Jin-hee, etc., 2013). The research team calculated how the timing of spring flower blooming on the Korean Peninsula would change in response to global warming if RCP 8.5 does not reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The average number of open days for each period in the early 21st century (2011 ~ 2040), mid 2041-2070 (2071-2070), and late 2071-2100 period are calculated and the average year of spring flowers (1971-2000) Compared to a few days earlier.

According to the calculation results, the average flowering time of forsythia on the Korean Peninsula, which was on April 6, will be pulled to March 29 in the early 21st century, and flowers will flow on March 22 in the middle and March 12 in the latter half. done. Compared with normal years, in the latter half of the 21st century, the average flowering time of Korean forages will be 25 days faster. In particular, it is expected to flower about 35 ~ 40 days earlier than usual in the west coast, south coast and east coast.

Looking at the entire peninsula by region, it is predicted that from the middle of April to the end of April in the vicinity of the summit of Mt. You will be able to see forsythia throughout the peninsula. What is interesting is that from the middle of the 21st century, the south coast and Jeju Island are expected to have foraging in February (red colored areas). In particular, in the latter half of the 21st century, it is expected that most of South Korea except for Gangwon and Inland mountainous areas such as Seoul, Gyeonggi, Chungcheong, Honam, and Yeongnam will have forage in February (see the figure below).
The flowering time of the azaleas in the 21st century is expected to be very similar to the flowering time of forsythia. On average, the rhododendrons in the late 21st century are expected to be on March 13th, similar to forsythia. When we look at the average of the entire peninsula, we bloom 25 days earlier than usual. In particular, southern and coastal areas are expected to be 35 to 40 days earlier than normal.

It was predicted that the flowering time of each region would be very similar to that of foraging. From the mid-21st century, azaleas can be seen in the vicinity of Mt. Paektu, and in the latter half of the 21st century, azaleas are expected to be found in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Chungcheong and Honam regions in late February (pictured).

The average flowering time of cherry blossoms was 14 April on average in the Korean peninsula. The 21st century shows that flowers bloom faster than foreskins and rhododendrons. According to the average of the Korean peninsula, the flowering date of the early 21st century is expected to be 8 days earlier than the normal year on April 6, with flowers blooming on March 31 on the middle, and 26 days on average on March 21.

By region, cherry blossoms are expected to start blooming in late February from some parts of Jeju Island and the south coast, and cherry blossoms are expected to be seen in March and most parts of central and southern areas except Gangwon Province. In particular, it was predicted that cherry blossoms could be seen all over the Korean peninsula except for the vicinity of the top of Mt.
If the global warming progresses at the same rate as the research results and the flowering time of spring flowers is accelerated, the forsythia and azalea festivals should be pulled all over in February, and the cherry blossom festivals currently held in April will probably take place in March in the latter half of the 21st century. In the future, the words "forgiveness" and "azalea festival" and "March cherry blossom festival" may never be awkward. Of course, the study assumes that the greenhouse gas will continue to be emitted at the same rate as it is now. If the greenhouse gas is actively cut down, the rate of warming may slow down and the speed with which the landing date may be accelerated.

It is expected that the speed at which the spring flower reaches north will be about 30 km per day. Considering that the flowers have begun to bloom from the southern coast of Korea around 20th, it is expected that cherry blossoms will be seen in Seoul at the end of this month or at the beginning of April at the latest. Cherry blossoms are likely to be in full bloom even before the April Cherry Blossom Festival begins. Although spring flowers tend to be sensitive to the temperature in March and tend to vary greatly from year to year, there is a strong possibility that the spring flower festival without spring flowers will increase more gradually if the spring flower festival period is not shortened to meet the global warming pace.

<References>
* Kim Jin Hee, Chun Jung Hwa, and Yun Jin Il, 2013: The Prospect of Spring Flowers in the Korean Peninsula under the New Climate Change Scenario, Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 50-58