(Economic Observation) China's stock market has a weak start in April.
China News Agency, Beijing, April 1 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) On the first trading day of April, China's A-shares failed to start, and the main stock indexes fell. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Index fell 0.57%. Under such a start, coupled with the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic overseas, what will happen to A shares in the second quarter has aroused widespread concern in the market.
In this regard, Shen Zhengyang, an analyst at Northeast Securities, told reporters from China News Agency that the performance of A shares was weak that day, mainly because the epidemic was still spreading overseas. Investors were worried about the development of the epidemic itself and the impact of the epidemic on the world economy. Risky assets are conservative.
This year, as the epidemic spreads across the globe, global stock markets also seem to have suffered a severe setback. In the first quarter, overseas stock markets experienced in-depth adjustments. Most countries' stock markets fell more than 20%. Among them, the stock markets of Russia, Brazil and other countries fell more than 30%.
As the leader of global stock markets, despite the recent rebound, U.S. stocks still suffered a major setback. Throughout the first quarter, U.S. stocks rarely experienced four circuit breakers. The Dow Jones Index also posted its largest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 1987.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that this round of global stock market quake will be in three stages. The first stage is the liquidity depletion stage, and most assets will be sold off. The second stage is the rebound stage and also the differentiation stage. The third stage is the completion stage of the great earthquake. At present, the global capital market has entered the second stage and has started to rebound. Only when the inflection point in Europe and the United States emerges will the global stock market enter the third stage and usher in market stability.
As for A-shares, the overall performance of the first quarter showed strong resilience. The major stock indexes fell less. The GEM index also outperformed other major stock indexes worldwide with a rise of about 4%.
In addition to the smaller decline in the index, the A-share market also experienced a structural market in the first quarter. Yuan Xi, fund manager of Galaxy Fund, said that before the Spring Festival, A shares continued the trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and the technology sector performed well. After the Spring Festival, especially during the rapid outbreak of overseas epidemics, the market began to worry about the global economic crisis, and the sector that was more obviously affected by external demand had a huge adjustment, while medicine, food and beverages, which were mainly domestic demand, performed relatively well.
Regarding the judgment of the A-share market in the second quarter, Zhu Zhiyong, an analyst at Aijian Securities, is optimistic. Zhu Zhiyong said that after undergoing the shock adjustment in the first quarter, the A-shares have accumulated the momentum of recovery in the second quarter. It is expected that the structure of structural opportunities will continue in the second quarter, and the new economy represented by new infrastructure is still the focus of market attention.
In this regard, Guo Nan Futures analyst Zhang Nan also held similar views. Zhang Nan said that the recent positive news on the stock market has continued to increase, including the improvement of China's manufacturing data in March. The current global economic stimulus policy is overweight, and the Chinese stock market is expected to stop falling and repair. As China continues to resume production and resume work, the market is expected to usher in a better policy window in the second quarter, and the broader market is expected to gradually stabilize at 3,000 points in the first half of the year. However, it is also necessary to observe the global fermentation of the epidemic, and beware of the decline in the linkage between stock indexes and peripheral markets.
China and Thailand Securities analyst Chen Long also believes that under the impact of the epidemic, U.S. stocks experienced a sharp correction in the first quarter, mainly due to the liquidity crisis caused by the concentration of leveraged funds that have tended to extremes. With the introduction of the liquidity policy, the liquidity crisis in US stocks has been lifted. In view of the liquidity crisis in the US stock market, global risk appetite is expected to gradually recover from extremely pessimistic expectations, which also provides a possibility for the rebound of A shares in the second quarter.
Chen Long further pointed out that standing at the end of March, the overall valuation of A-shares was at a historically low level, and some index valuations were close to the historical levels. The factors supporting the rebound of A shares in the second quarter mainly include: countries have introduced unprecedented economic rescue policies to cope with the crisis and promote global risk appetite; it is expected that Chinese officials will increase their efforts to stabilize growth policies in the second quarter, and A share market risk appetite will also follow Promotion. (Finish)