Europe 1 with AFP // Photo credit: Magali Cohen / Hans Lucas / Hans Lucas via AFP 4:02 p.m., January 25, 2024

The number of job seekers increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. France has 5.406 million unemployed people.

For the year 2024, projections show that this phenomenon is expected to continue to progress due to weak economic activity. 

The number of unemployed continued to increase in France at the end of 2023, although less quickly than during the summer, and is expected to continue to increase this year due to weak economic activity, with great concern for the construction sector.

5.406 million job seekers

The number of unemployed (category A, without activity) increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter throughout France (excluding Mayotte), after an increase of 0.6% in the third, according to figures published Thursday by the Ministry of Labor .

The number of people registered with Pôle emploi (which became France Travail on January 1) without activity and actively looking for a job increased by 4,800 over the quarter to reach 3.033 million.

Including reduced activity (categories B and C), the number of job seekers increased by 1%, or 54,000 more registered, and stood at 5.406 million.

For its part, Urssaf recorded a 1.4% decrease in hiring declarations for more than a month in the fourth quarter, after a stabilization in the third.

But according to the director of statistics of the social contribution collection body, Alain Gubian, this "does not fundamentally modify the orientations of the employment market" with a level of hiring which "remains much higher" than before. -health crisis.

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The construction sector anticipates 90,000 job losses

Unemployment is affected by the slowdown in economic activity with a certain lag.

In December, the Banque de France anticipated a rise in the unemployment rate in France to 7.8% in 2025, while the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) sees it at 7.9% at the end of this year, compared to 7.4% in the third quarter of 2023. This rise is due “to a drop in  economic activity linked to the increase in the key rates of the European Central Bank,” Nathalie Chusseau

,

economics professor, explains to AFP. at the University of Lille.

As a result, “we anticipate a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 in the number of jobs” over the year 2024, specifies Nathalie Chusseau.

Good news, the expected drop in inflation this year will lead central banks to put an end to the increase in key rates, which "will restore purchasing power to households and boost demand, therefore production and activity", according to the academic.

But "there is still a big black spot: the drop in activity linked to the housing sector", the French Building Federation anticipating 90,000 job losses in 2024.

Increase of 5.9% over one year for those under 25

At the end of 2023, the number of unemployed job seekers increased especially among young people.

In mainland France, the increase is 5.9% over one year for those under 25, while unemployment fell by 0.6% for people aged 25 to 49.

For seniors (50 and over), it fell by 2.9% over one year, but increased by 0.6% over one quarter.

Job seekers who have reduced activity (categories B and C) are more numerous in all age groups, although their number is also increasing more quickly among young people.

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Entries at France Travail increased in all categories by 2.7% compared to the previous quarter.

The government, which aims to achieve full employment by reducing the unemployment rate to 5% in 2027, also hopes that the transformation of Pôle Emploi into France Travail - with more cooperation between the different aid organizations the search for a job-- will make it possible to reverse an unemployment curve that is on the rise again.

“It is good news to have an organization which tries to coordinate all the actors linked to employment” including local missions for young people and local authorities, believes Nathalie Chusseau.

But for the results to be there, “it must go hand in hand with economic activity which is in better shape”.