Chinanews.com, December 12 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 12 large and medium-sized cities in November. In November, the transaction scale of commercial housing in 15 large and medium-sized cities increased, and the sales price continued to decline month-on-month, rising and falling year-on-year.
Industry analysts pointed out that the real estate market as a whole is still in the consolidation stage. However, the recent implementation of blockbuster real estate optimization policies in Beijing, Shanghai and other places can be said to have "pulled the bow and accumulated" for the adjusting property market. Where will the "arrow" go in the next real estate market?
Data map: Aerial photography of real estate. Photo by Chen Guanyan
"Price for volume" is obvious
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from the performance of new houses, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same decline as the previous month, of which Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, and Shanghai rose by 0.6% month-on-month. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
"At present, the five cities with the largest month-on-month increase in the housing price index are Shanghai, Kunming, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Chengdu, which are generally cities with good urban fundamentals and large potential housing demand. For example, Shanghai's housing price index has the best performance, which objectively shows that the purchasing power is still relatively sufficient; Chengdu's performance is related to the rapid population introduction rate and the enhancement of the city's livable attributes in recent years. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.
Sales Price Index of Newly Constructed Commercial Residential Buildings in 2023 Large and Medium-sized Cities in November 11. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
From the perspective of the second-hand housing market, in November, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 11.1% month-on-month, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 6.1%, 4.1%, 5.1% and 0.1% respectively. Second-hand residential sales prices in second- and third-tier cities fell by 5.0% and 7.0% month-on-month respectively, an increase of 8.0 percentage points from the previous month.
"The pressure on second-hand housing is still relatively large. But on the contrary, the reduction of price bubbles has also increased the cost performance of subscribing to second-hand houses, which is where the current situation can be guided. Yan Yuejin thinks.
It is worth noting that the National Bureau of Statistics specifically mentioned that the scale of commercial housing transactions in 11 large and medium-sized cities increased in November. In the eyes of the industry, this is an obvious manifestation of the current market "price for volume".
"In November, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in many cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose month-on-month, and at the same time, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 11.1% month-on-month, which itself is a direct embodiment of 'exchanging price for volume'." Zhang Bo, president of 4 Anjuke Research Institute, said that once the transaction volume continues to rise, it means that the price has bottomed out, and the next room for house prices to fall is relatively limited.
"Considering the further easing of housing purchase policies in various places in the fourth quarter, the trend of housing price index stabilizing and improving remains unchanged. At the same time, the price concession in some places has been large, which in turn has further reduced the cost of buying a house. Yan Yuejin said.
Sales Price Index of Second-hand Residential Buildings in 2023 Large and Medium-sized Cities in November 11. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
The market situation is expected to improve further
Also on the 15th, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference that with the overall recovery of the economy and the effect of a series of optimization and adjustment policies in the real estate sector, some indicators of the recent real estate market continue to show signs of marginal improvement.
On the 14th, Beijing and Shanghai successively introduced more favorable policies for the property market, including optimizing the identification standards for ordinary houses, reducing the down payment ratio, and reducing mortgage interest rates. "Significantly reducing the threshold for residents to buy a home and the cost of buying a house is conducive to the release of demand for rigid and improved housing." Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, expects that the activity of the Beijing and Shanghai markets will increase significantly, thereby stabilizing price expectations.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said that the policy is aimed at promoting the circulation of second-hand housing, lowering the threshold for buying houses, allowing more people with purchasing power to enter the market, improving the decentralization of second-hand houses and new houses, and alleviating the expectations of owners and developers to sell houses at lower prices, thereby slowing down the trend of increasing second-hand housing listings.
"In addition to the demand-side policies, it is more important to have obvious hedging in the new model, such as the transformation of urban villages, the volume of affordable housing, and the improvement of residents' prospects, so that the market can be stabilized." Li Yujia thinks.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that it is necessary to actively and prudently resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. At the same time, it is also pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for "ordinary and emergency" purposes, and the transformation of urban villages. In addition, it is necessary to improve the relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
"Judging from these policies, in the future, as various regions and departments further deepen the implementation of relevant policies in the real estate field, the policy effect will continue to appear, and the real estate market situation is expected to further improve." Liu Aihua said. (ENDS)