Recently, many cities in China have canceled or relaxed the housing purchase restriction policy——

What is the response of the property market to the "relaxation" of purchase restrictions?

On November 11, Kunming announced the abolition of the relevant real estate policies introduced in 2 and 2017, which means that another megacity has canceled the policy of restricting the sale and purchase of commercial housing. Since September this year, more than 2018 mega and mega cities in China have adjusted and optimized the purchase restrictions of commercial housing.

What will be the impact of the "relaxation" of purchase restrictions, coupled with the new policies of the property market such as "recognising the house but not recognising the loan" and lowering the down payment ratio of the second house launched in the second half of the year? The reporter of this newspaper conducted an interview.

A number of second-tier cities have lifted purchase restrictions

Under the purchase restriction policy, residents should not only look at their own financial level, but also see whether they are qualified to buy a house. On August 8, Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province issued 25 new real estate policies, clarifying that from the date of the issuance of the measures, the number of housing units purchased by resident families will no longer be restricted, and the transfer of all commercial housing (including the original restricted housing) will no longer be restricted. This practice has attracted widespread attention in the market. Since then, a number of large and medium-sized cities in China have successively introduced relevant policies to optimize and adjust the original housing purchase restriction policy.

Some cities have explicitly abolished the housing purchase restriction policy. For example, Wuhan, Hubei Province has cancelled the housing purchase restriction policy within the Second Ring Road, and Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, has proposed to cancel the purchase restriction policy in the whole city.

Most hotspot cities have optimized housing purchase restriction policies. For example, Chengdu, Sichuan Province issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing Policies and Measures to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", proposing that the Sichuan Tianfu New Area directly administered area, the southern park of Chengdu High-tech Zone, Jinjiang District, Qingyang District, Jinniu District, Wuhou District, and Chenghua District continue to implement housing purchase restrictions and unify them into one purchase restriction area. Other areas will no longer review the qualifications for home purchases. Hangzhou Municipality issued a notice clarifying that the scope of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou has been reduced from the previous Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Xihu District, Binjiang District, Xiaoshan District, Yuhang District, Linping District, Qiantang District and Fuyang District to Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Xihu District and Binjiang District.

According to the monitoring of the China Index Research Institute, the relaxation of purchase restrictions in various places since September mainly involves the full liberalization of purchase restrictions, the reduction of purchase restriction areas, the cancellation of purchase restrictions for specific area segments, and the optimization of purchase restrictions for talents or families with many children. In terms of city lines, at present, second-tier and new first-tier cities in China, including Nanjing, Suzhou, Qingdao, etc., have announced the cancellation of purchase restriction policies. In the specific areas of first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the current purchase restriction policy has also been adjusted to a certain extent. For example, Jinshan District, Shanghai, has made it clear that the housing purchase policy for talents in key transformation areas will be implemented in three key areas: Binhai City, High-tech Community and Tingfeng Community. Guangzhou proposes to adjust the scope of the implementation of the housing purchase restriction policy, shrinking the tax social security period for the purchase of the first house by non-registered residents from 9 years to 3 years, and lifting the purchase restrictions in some areas of Huangpu, Panyu, Huadu and Baiyun Districts.

"The recent relaxation or cancellation of housing purchase restrictions in various places is one of the means of real estate regulation." Zhao Xiuchi, dean of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Real Estate Research Institute of the Capital University of Economics and Business, said, "Real estate regulation is to introduce corresponding policies and measures according to the supply and demand of real estate in different periods, so as to balance supply and demand and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." In the stage of hot property market and high housing prices, the introduction of purchase restriction policies has suppressed investment demand to a certain extent; When the property market is cold, the cancellation or relaxation of purchase restrictions is conducive to promoting the release of rigid demand and improving demand, and then plays a role in boosting the property market. At present, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and the real estate market in some areas is oversupplied, and the potential of the demand side needs to be further released. The adjustment of the purchase restriction policy in response to the latest changes in the property market is a measure aimed at boosting market confidence and promoting the recovery of the property market. ”

Some cities have shown signs of recovery in the property market

It has been more than a month since the purchase restriction policy was adjusted in most cities, how has the real estate market reacted?

"After Nanjing announced the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy on September 9, the number of customers who came to consult second-hand housing increased significantly. Some customers can 'sell the old for the new' and enjoy a certain percentage of the house purchase subsidy. Since mid-September, several of the clients I have shown have been sold. A real estate agent in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province told reporters.

According to Jiang Haiqin, deputy director of the Nanjing Municipal Bureau of Housing Security and Real Estate, Nanjing has introduced a number of property market policies aimed at meeting the needs of different groups of people at different stages of buying houses. Judging from the data, the average daily transaction volume of commercial housing in Nanjing, the number of new customers of second-hand housing and the number of people showing it have all increased, and the market activity has improved.

In Guangzhou, where the housing purchase restriction policy has been relaxed, the property market has also shown some signs of recovery. According to the statistics of Guangzhou Central Plains Research and Development Department, in October, there were 10,6521 online signatures for new houses in Guangzhou, an increase of 43% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 23%, hitting a new high in the past five months. In terms of second-hand housing transactions, data released by the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association showed that in October, there were 5,10 online signatures for second-hand residential properties in Guangzhou, an increase of about 9361.9% month-on-month and 6.41% year-on-year respectively.

The adjustment of the purchase restriction policy in some cities coincides with the traditional peak season of the real estate "Golden September and Silver October", and the market reaction is more obvious. Statistics from Hunan Central Plains Research Institute show that during this year's National Day, 1387,19 commercial residences were traded in the five districts of Changsha, with a transaction area of 76,22 square meters, up 23% and <>% year-on-year respectively.

In addition to the "relaxation" of purchase restrictions, some cities have recently launched a number of supporting policies for the property market to reduce the burden of housing for housing groups with rigid and improved needs.

For example, Zhengzhou, Henan Province proposed to reduce the down payment ratio of housing loans, clarifying that for residents who take out loans to purchase commercial housing (including stock housing), the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is uniformly adjusted to no less than 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the second set of housing is uniformly adjusted to not less than 30%. Ningbo, Zhejiang Province proposed to adjust the housing sales restriction policy, optimize the identification criteria for the number of individual housing loans, adjust and optimize the differentiated housing credit policy, and adjust the down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans. The Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Administration issued a notice clarifying that if the employee family loan is the first housing provident fund loan, the minimum down payment ratio will be adjusted from 30% to 25%.

A number of new policies for the property market have been superimposed to promote the initial positive development momentum of the property market. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of real estate investment, the real estate investment data in September improved month-on-month, and the decline in the area of new real estate construction also narrowed. Judging from the transaction of commercial housing in 9 large and medium-sized cities in September, the total online signing data of new and second-hand houses turned positive in September, with a month-on-month increase of 9.70%, which is the first time that it has turned positive after declining for five consecutive months since April. "Judging from these indicator data, we believe that the role of real estate optimization policies is continuing to be released and has a certain positive effect." Sheng Laiyun said.

There is still room for policy optimization in the property market

Industry insiders believe that a number of new real estate market policies have been launched in many places recently, which has played a positive role in improving housing sales in the short term and boosted market confidence to a certain extent.

According to the "September Survey Report on Residents' Willingness to Buy Homes" released by the China Index Research Institute, in September, all parts of the country began to introduce relaxed policies to increase residents' demand for housing purchases, reduce residents' housing costs, improve future market expectations, and drive the increase in home purchase intentions. However, the report also pointed out that in September, residents' willingness to buy a home showed a trend of rising first and then declining, and after the introduction of heavy policies such as recognising houses and not recognising loans, reducing the proportion of down payments, and relaxing purchase restrictions in high-energy cities, residents' willingness to buy homes showed a pulsing increase, with the willingness to buy a home reaching 9% at the beginning of the month, and then the willingness to buy a home showed a rapid decline, falling to 9%.

According to Zhao Xiuchi's analysis, the cancellation or relaxation of property market policies such as purchase restrictions is conducive to improving residents' expectations and willingness to buy houses, but whether this willingness will turn into house buying behavior still depends on the family's ability to buy houses, income levels and local housing price trends.

"In order to continue to boost market confidence and promote its transformation into home purchase behavior, it is necessary to continue to adjust outdated policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, and sales restrictions, and superimpose other favorable policies for the property market to reduce the cost of home purchases for home buyers." Zhao Xiuchi said, "At present, cities or regions that have not made adjustments to the purchase restriction policy still have a large inflow of population, and there is still more demand for rigid and improved housing." Maintaining the existing purchase restriction policy can avoid the siphoning effect of these cities on small and medium-sized cities. In some cities where the real estate market is obviously oversupplied, purchase restrictions can be appropriately canceled or relaxed to stimulate housing demand. ”

In the view of Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, there is still room for optimization and improvement of the housing purchase restriction policy in some first-tier cities. "Shanghai Jinshan District, Guangzhou and other places according to their own population development trends and other factors, the introduction of targeted housing purchase policies, to boost the property market expectations to play a certain role, but the central urban areas of some cities are still implementing the purchase restriction policy, not convenient for the second-hand housing market to buy and sell, to a certain extent affected the property market activity. Next, first-tier cities can further relax policies such as purchase and sale restrictions for housing in suburbs, new urban areas and other places, promote property market transactions in remote areas of first-tier cities, especially enhance the activity of the second-hand housing market, so as to meet the housing needs of citizens and promote the healthy and stable development of the property market. ”

Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that this year's real estate market, on the whole, is "high in the front, low in the middle, and stable in the back", and policy measures such as "recognising housing but not loans" and "reducing the down payment ratio and interest rate" have had a positive effect. "In view of the real estate market situation, the state has made a series of important arrangements, including building a new model of real estate development, implementing the 'three major projects' such as affordable housing, and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination. We will work with relevant departments to guide local governments to conscientiously implement these major deployments, strive to meet the housing needs of the people, and promote the stable, healthy and high-quality development of the real estate market. Ni Hong said.

Liao Ruiling