Expectations for the growth of global maritime trade depend on the development in combating Corona and the spread of the vaccine

Dubai Chamber: 12.9% growth in the UAE's non-oil trade in 2021

The Dubai Chamber’s analysis focused on global seaborne trade.

From the source

A recent analysis of the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry expected that the performance of the UAE's non-oil trade during the second half of 2020 will achieve a tangible recovery, based on data from the International Monetary Fund, the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Federal Customs Authority. The growth rate of the UAE's non-oil trade in 2021 was about 12.9%.

The analysis indicated that the expectations of recovery in the second half of 2020 came as a result of the stimulating and supportive trade policies adopted by the UAE government, in addition to the easing of closure measures in many major economies, and the resumption of trade by China by the beginning of the second half of 2020.

Emirati excellence

The report showed that, given the expected transformations in this sector against the background of the emerging Coronavirus pandemic, and the structural transformations that preceded it, the UAE's commercial maritime transport sector is in a good position to face the expected repercussions of the epidemic crisis on the global industry, pointing out that the UAE has made huge investments in Infrastructure, including the adoption of the latest technological solutions in this sector, in anticipation of rapid and anticipated changes in the sector.

Maritime trade

The Dubai Chamber’s analysis focused on global seaborne trade, based on the data of the UNCTAD Navigation Report 2020, which stated that the global maritime trade sector since 2019 has lost momentum due to many factors, the most important of which is related to the trade tension between China and the United States, And the state of uncertainty in economic policies, which led to a decline in growth in global economic output, merchandise trade, and, accordingly, maritime trade.

According to the analysis, the vulnerability of maritime trade in 2020 has increased further due to the spread of the new Corona virus epidemic that has severely affected the maritime sector, due to the disruption in global value chains, and the strict measures taken by global governments to contain its spread.

The analysis pointed out that the UAE's non-oil seaborne trade constitutes about 83% of the country's total non-oil commodity trade.

Global slowdown

According to the analysis, the growth of the volume of international maritime trade (seaborne) slowed in 2019, reaching 0.5%, which is the lowest growth rate since the global financial crisis that occurred in 2008 and 2009.

The growth rate decreased to 2.8% in 2018, reaching a total of 11.08 billion metric tons.

Against the backdrop of the poor performance in 2019, the short-term outlook for maritime transport, and thus trade, worsened in early 2020, as the unprecedented spread of the Corona epidemic, and the economic repercussions of this, strongly affected the outlook for 2020 and beyond.

According to the analysis, the global maritime trade volume is estimated to decrease in 2020 by about -4.1%, and the reason for this is due to the outbreak of the epidemic, and its impact on world economies, travel, transportation, consumption patterns, in addition to industrial activity and supply chains.

Despite this, and in contrast to the growth rate of global seaborne trade in 2018 and 2019, the trend of the UAE's non-oil trade volume showed strong growth rates of 8.5% and 13%, respectively, in defiance of the slowdown in the direction of global trade that began a year ago. 2018.

a future vision

The analysis indicates that the disruptions caused by the epidemic will have a lasting impact on maritime transport and trade, and that the effects of maritime transport will be a structural transformation in this field, including, for example, shifts in supply chain design, globalization patterns, and changes in consumption habits. Spending, and an increased focus on assessing risks and building resilience.

The UNCTAD report also shows that many companies in the trade and maritime transport sector have already begun to evaluate options on how to ensure preparedness with the expected reconfiguration of supply chains as a result of the pandemic. This includes investment in warehousing and warehouses, and thus the space that is expected to become more important to ensure Adequacy and safety of inventory.

Positive indicators for 2021

The analysis pointed to positive indicators for the year 2021, most notably the expectations of global maritime trade based on data from "UNCTAD" and the International Monetary Fund, which expected a strong positive growth rate of 4.8%, depending on the prevailing conditions and development in fighting the pandemic and spreading the vaccine.

This expectation depends on an increase in the demand for shipping commercial goods, which is mainly derived from developments in the global economy and trade, at a time when this matter is closely related to the success of efforts and strenuous efforts aimed at containing the spread of the virus, and thus easing measures and restrictions, and the resumption of economic activity. Global subsidized mainly from government spending.

Diversification of supply sources

The analysis of the "Dubai Chamber" emphasized the importance of diversifying the sources of supply, routing and distribution channels, by moving from one country to multi-site sources that focus not only on reducing costs and delays, but also on managing risks and flexibility, in addition to adopting more of the latest technological solutions that It has become an urgent necessity, as the repercussions of the epidemic crisis showed that the leading companies in terms of technological absorption are more able to withstand the storm, such as e-commerce and online platforms, blockchain solutions, and the logistics of third parties that support information technology.

The UAE's commercial maritime transport sector is in a good position to face the expected repercussions of the epidemic crisis on the global industry.

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