Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 26 (Wei Wei) The State Administration of Foreign Exchange released the "China Balance of Payments Report for the First Half of 2020" on September 25, stating that since 2020, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown a "rising-declining-rising "Two-way fluctuation trend.

In just over three months from May to the present, the dollar index has continued to fall.

In September, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market rose above the 6.8 mark.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar also allows people who need to study abroad or travel to exchange foreign currencies, but how should investors who hold U.S. dollars manage their money?

  USD/RMB central parity chart source: China Currency Network

Multiple outlets need to make an appointment for cash withdrawal

  "There are no more US dollars in cash. If you make an appointment today, you will not be able to withdraw cash until after eleven at the earliest." A teller at a Bank of China branch in Chaoyang District, Beijing, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client.

  The lobby manager of another branch of China CITIC Bank also stated that the exchange of US dollar banknotes requires an appointment one day in advance. “There are relatively few foreign currencies in the branch, and the withdrawal can only be made by appointment. The upper limit of US dollar withdrawals per day is US$5,000, and customers mostly withdraw US$4900."

  Since August, the renminbi has appreciated sharply. On September 25, the central parity of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.81, that is, one U.S. dollar was exchanged for 6.81 yuan.

In fact, since May of this year, the dollar began to depreciate, and it has depreciated by more than 3,200 basis points so far.

  The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client learned that some citizens who plan to study abroad and travel abroad choose to exchange dollars at this time.

Ms. Li, a Beijing citizen, said that it is more cost-effective to change to US dollars now than before, and that it can save 15,000 yuan compared to May.

Most US dollar wealth management yields are less than 2%

  For investors who have idle US dollar cash in their hands, US dollar deposits and US dollar wealth management are the choices of many people. What is the current yield of such products?

The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client inquired about multiple banks and found that the current bank’s US dollar deposits and wealth management products have relatively low yields and a small number of products.

  In terms of deposits, according to incomplete statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, most banks have 1-year fixed deposit products with an interest rate of 0.8%-0.9%.

For example, Bank of China and China Merchants Bank have the same annual interest rates for 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year USD lump-sum deposit and lump-sum withdrawal products, which are 0.05%, 0.15%, 0.25% and 0.35% respectively.

The annual interest rates of CITIC Bank’s 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year USD lump-sum deposit and withdrawal products are 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively; Industrial Bank’s 3-month, 6-month and 1-year The annual interest rates of 1-year USD lump-sum lump-sum products are 0.7%, 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.

  Among them, the Bank of Communications' “remittance interest” USD deposit product has a higher interest rate, with an annual interest rate of 1.1% for 3 months (inclusive) to 6 months (exclusive), and 6 months (inclusive) to 1 year (exclusive) ) The annual interest rate is 1.3%, and the annual interest rate is 1.8% for one year.

  In terms of financial management, the interest rates of US dollar wealth management products launched by various banks are slightly higher than those of deposits, but the expected annualized yields of wealth management products within one year are mostly lower than 2%.

  For example, a structured deposit with a maturity of 94 days in China CITIC Bank has a starting point of US$1,500, and the expected annualized rate of return is between 0.8% and 1.1%; the minimum purchase point of China Merchants Bank’s USD daily gold product is US$3,000, which is nearly 1 The monthly annualized rate of return is 1.24%; another U.S. dollar daily Yuexin aggressive 180-day product has an investment rate of 1.25% on the previous day, but the initial purchase amount is as high as $18,000 (about 123,000 yuan).

In addition, the Bank of China’s Bank of China has accumulated a long-term annualized return rate of 2.08% for 7 days (USD version), but the quota is tight, and it can only be purchased on working days.

Expert: RMB may continue to appreciate in the future

  What issues should be paid attention to when investing in foreign currency financial management?

First of all, according to the new asset management regulations, bank financial management must "break the rigid exchange" and transform to net worth, and US dollar financial management is also included.

  Professor Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, believes that US dollar financial management needs to gradually shift to a net value type. The net value is not only to break the rigid exchange, but also to make financial products more transparent, suitable for investors to continue to track financial status .

For investors, the income of US dollar financial management is not good, and the depreciation of US dollar is superimposed, so US dollar financial management currently has certain risks.

  In addition, a bank account manager said that the yield of RMB wealth management products is generally around 4%, while the yield of foreign exchange wealth management products is relatively low.

And the cost of foreign exchange exchange needs to be considered. Under normal circumstances, the exchange cost is about 0.5% of the principal.

Due to the low rate of return of foreign exchange financial management, the profit margin is limited without considering the exchange rate trend. Therefore, US dollar financial management is only suitable for those who have idle US dollars.

  Will the RMB appreciate in the future?

Huang Dazhi, a senior researcher at the Suning Institute of Financial Research, pointed out to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that since September, the epidemic in many European countries has occurred twice, and China has already contained the epidemic and the economy is gradually recovering. If the fourth quarter can continue to maintain stability, the yuan Or will continue to appreciate.

  According to the analysis of Oriental Jincheng's research report, in the short term, although the US dollar index may still strengthen in stages, China's economy continues to recover and the improvement in the value of RMB asset allocation will further ensure the stable operation of the RMB.

The market's positive expectations brought about by the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate have further enhanced the attractiveness of RMB assets, which will further support the trend of stable and steadily rising RMB exchange rates and two-way fluctuations in the short term.

Based on various factors, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate index against a basket of currencies will appreciate to a certain extent in the short term.

  Pan Helin believes that a substantial appreciation and devaluation of the renminbi are not good for the economy, so a stable renminbi exchange rate that fluctuates within a certain range is the best result.

Now that offshore vehicles are driving onshore vehicles, the appreciation of the renminbi may be suspended in the future.

However, it is not necessary to convert to the US dollar at this time, because the macro level still does not support the strength of the US dollar, and the RMB may stabilize within a certain range.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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