What signal did the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and State Supervision Commission publish on the website of the high-end liquor before the double festival?
On September 22, the National Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection published an article stating that near the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, news of domestic high-end liquor prices and price hikes represented by Moutai and Wuliangye continued. To an all-time high.
Public opinion is concerned that the price of high-end liquor will continue to rise, which will surpass the demand for normal human relations and banquets, and promote the resurgence of unhealthy trends such as public funds for eating and drinking, illegal collection and gifting of festival gifts.
As the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection issued a document naming high-end liquors such as Moutai and Wuliangye, alerting to unhealthy trends, individual liquor stocks suffered a sluggish performance yesterday and the overall decline.
Yesterday, the liquor sector led the decline at the opening, and individual stocks were green. Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Shuijingfang once fell by about 5% in the morning.
However, a rebound followed. As of the end of the afternoon, except for ST who was willing to be warned of a risk, most of the rest ended up with a small drop.
And "stock king" Moutai continued to strengthen, closing down only 0.94%.
From the end of March to the beginning of this month, Moutai's stock price rose nearly 80%.
Although there has been a recent correction, it is still at an all-time high, with a total market value of more than 2 trillion yuan, ranking first in A shares.
phenomenon
Moutai has been increasing prices every week since August
Hongxing Erguotou is also making high-end liquor
The overall supply of high-end liquor is in short supply, and the price of Moutai market is unusually strong. After August, prices have been rising every week.
Take Feitian Moutai as an example. Although the official guide price is 1499 yuan per bottle, the market retail price is close to or even more than 3000 yuan per bottle.
"Our 53-degree Feitian Moutai has an original box price of 3,100 yuan per bottle, and a bulk unit price of 2,880 yuan. If you buy it later, the price may increase." Reply to the inquiry received by Kweichow Moutai Store.
At the same time, Feitian Moutai in many tobacco and liquor retail stores in Beijing is in a tight supply.
According to an article on the website of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, near the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, news of domestic high-end liquor prices and price hikes represented by Moutai and Wuliangye have continued, and the prices of many liquor products have reached historical highs.
Public opinion is concerned that the price of high-end liquor will continue to rise, which will surpass the demand for normal human relations and banquets, and promote the resurgence of unhealthy trends such as public funds for eating and drinking, illegal collection and gifting of festival gifts.
Take 53% Feitian Moutai as an example. The official retail price of a single bottle is 1499 yuan, but the actual price has doubled.
"In the past two months, Feitian Moutai has been rising by about 50 yuan per week, far exceeding the price increase of last year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day." A Moutai dealer told reporters.
Market research institutions analyzed that due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter of this year, the massive reduction in people going out directly affected the consumption of liquor.
However, the demand for high-end liquor has been continuously released since the second quarter. Not only has the price of Feitian Moutai increased, but the wholesale prices of Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have also shown an upward trend. The overall supply of high-end liquor is in short supply.
"There is an expectation of price increases. Even if they can't rise, the dealers will not lose money. The goods hoarded in their hands can then be sold as vintage wines at higher prices." The aforementioned Moutai dealers said that the continued high price of wine intensified. The hoarding and reluctance of some dealers.
A reporter from the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission noticed that some merchants would also "buy Maotai at a reasonable price" as a gimmick to attract customers.
Beijing Wangfujing Department Store recently held a carnival event, one of which is to supply Moutai at a reasonable price, but it is required to purchase more than 1,000 yuan in the mall to have the chance to draw lots to be eligible for purchase.
Winners must hold their ID cards to purchase, and each person is limited to one bottle, and can only buy once in a year.
Even so, customers are still in line.
The e-commerce Tmall Supermarket also opens the Feitian Moutai from time to time at a price of 1499 yuan.
The reporter tried to snap up the purchase at 8pm on September 21, and it was sold out as soon as it started.
Most of the netizens who successfully grabbed it before showed the joy of "winning the lottery" in the comment area.
According to media reports, September was originally the peak season for liquor sales. This year, some high-end brands controlled volume and price limits, causing market prices to rise further.
Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe, etc. have all issued price increases notices, and Red Star and Shede Wines have recently launched high-end new products to seize the market.
It is worth mentioning that the red star Erguotou, known for its cheap and affordable prices, was also criticized by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. This was also surprising and sparked heated discussion.
The Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that the Red Star Erguotou recently announced that it would strongly launch high-end liquor. Its official flagship store showed that the retail price of the Red Star 1949 master was 699 yuan/bottle, and the Grand Master 1949 was 799 yuan/bottle, which has completely entered the list of high-end liquors. Obviously it runs counter to its development vision of "being the master wine on the people's table".
September has always been the peak season for liquor sales. Recently, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe Shares, and Shuijingfang have issued notices of price increases.
However, the Red Star Capital Bureau visited the market and found that, except for the unusually strong price of Moutai, most other liquors are not as strong as expected. For example, Yanghe, Shuijingfang, Fenjiu, etc. can be shipped at the price before the price increase. If there are more orders, The price can be further discounted.
Take the recent price increase of Shuijingfang as an example. Although the official announcement of a price increase of 20 yuan, the actual selling price of the market terminal is much lower than the "guide price."
The Red Star Capital Bureau visited the market and found that the actual transaction price was equivalent to a 30% to 80% discount to the guide price. It can be seen that the terminal market did not buy it, and there was even a phenomenon of "price inversion".
Observed
In history, high-end liquor has been named many times and each time it caused a strong market shock
What is the impact of liquor being named?
The Red Star Capital Bureau noted that high-end liquor has been criticized many times in its history, and each time it caused strong market shocks.
On the evening of July 15 this year, the "Learning Group", a new media platform under the People's Daily, published an article "Who is paying for the changed taste of Moutai?
"The article pointed out that, from big tigers to small flies, Moutai appeared frequently and became the "hard currency" of official corruption.
One is that Moutai has face.
Under the influence of bad habits in the past, drinking Moutai has become a symbol of identity and status; second, hiding Moutai has value.
From the original hundreds of yuan, all the way up to several thousand yuan, Moutai seems to get rid of the identity of consumer goods and become a wealth management product; the third is to give Moutai a place.
If you don’t buy something, you don’t buy something.
On the second day after the article appeared in the paper, liquor concept stocks plummeted across the board. More than a dozen stocks including Yanghe, Laobaiganjiu, Kouzijiao, Jiuguijiu, Shuijingfang and other stocks collectively dropped their limit. Kweichow Moutai also rarely fell 7.9%, and the market value of 174 billion yuan evaporated in a single day.
In earlier history, eight years ago, in 2012, the market price of Feitian Moutai once exceeded 2,500 yuan.
However, by the end of 2012, the central government issued the "Eight Regulations", and high-end liquor was once criticized by the media and all walks of life, which had a huge impact.
The consumption of high-end catering and high-end liquor has dropped significantly.
At the end of the year, the liquor industry encountered a plasticizer storm, which caused the liquor industry to be hit hard again. As a result, the entire liquor industry entered a cold winter, and the stock price also fell continuously.
On September 2, 2013, affected by factors such as "restrictions on consumption of the three publics" and "strictly checking on public funds for eating and drinking", Kweichow Moutai's high volume limit fell, which became the first down limit for Moutai in more than a decade since its listing, and caused other liquor stocks to follow the storm.
During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day of the year, the retail price of Feitian Moutai also fell to the bottom. At its lowest, it only sold 850 yuan per bottle, and Wuliangye also fell to about 650 yuan per bottle.
perspective
Often associated with violations of regulations and disciplines, 383 cases were investigated and dealt with in the first July of this year
What is behind the high-end liquor being named?
If the two "price hikes" of high-end liquor are just market behavior, it is understandable.
However, in recent years, violations of regulations and disciplines related to high-end liquor have often caught the public's attention.
According to an article from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, on September 14, Shi Fenggang, former secretary of the Party branch and director of the village committee of Xinzhuang Village, Xindian Town, Fengtai District, Beijing, was sentenced to life imprisonment for organizing and leading a triad organization, corruption, etc. Confiscate all personal property.
In the capture footage disclosed by the media, the Feitian Moutai in the cabinet in his home has become a hot spot of public opinion.
On August 31, China Procuratorate published an indictment on the corruption and bribery case of Bai Xuemei, the former party secretary and chairman of the CPPCC Fugu County CPPCC in Shaanxi Province. The old news of receiving 19 boxes of Feitian Moutai was once again turned over by the media.
In the view of Deng Lianrong, the vice president of the China Association for Integrity and Legal System Research, the price of high-end liquor, which has been rising year by year and has been stored for a long time, is no longer a catering product in the usual sense. Its value has the attributes of luxury goods and collectibles and has become a lot. The "hard currency" in people's minds.
"Once the price of high-end liquor is far beyond the public's acceptable range, it may change back to'buyers do not drink, drinkers do not buy', dispelling recent efforts to consolidate and implement the spirit of the eight central regulations and correct the achievements of the'four winds'. "Deng Lianrong said.
A private business owner in Haiyan County, Zhejiang Province, Mr. Shen once gave some leading cadres two bottles of Feitian Moutai in the name of "New Year's greetings" before the Spring Festival in 2019, and 7 people actually accepted them. They were separately received in March this year. Be punished accordingly.
From January to July of this year, the national investigation and punishment of violations of the eight central regulations on mental issues monthly report data, illegal collection and delivery of valuable special products and gifts and gifts, illegal grants or subsidies or welfare, illegal eating and drinking three types of problems ranked in hedonism, luxury. The top three.
Among them, there is only one item of "Illegal collection and delivery of valuable and special products gifts". A total of 383 problems were investigated and dealt with nationwide, 444 people were dealt with, and 331 people were given party discipline and government affairs.
According to an article on the website of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies in Shanxi, Shandong, Guangdong and other places have notified a batch of typical cases including eating and drinking of public funds, illegally accepting precious and special products and gifts before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. .
At the same time, various localities have also sent special supervision and inspection teams to large supermarkets, hotels, etc. to obtain sales records and invoices to check whether there are any problems with units using public funds to purchase shopping cards, high-end drinks, public funds for eating and drinking, and illegal reception.
"On the one hand, wine companies should return to market rationality, attract users with high-quality products, and maintain the healthy development of the market; on the other hand, they should continue to strengthen supervision, investigation, and notification of violations of rules and disciplines by party members and leading cadres, and continue to consolidate and expand the effectiveness of style construction. , To prevent the invisible mutation of the "four winds" from rebounding." Deng Lianrong believes.
"The state's restrictive attitude towards luxury and waste caused by high-end liquor consumption has a certain inhibitory effect on high-end liquor consumption in the short term." Liquor industry analyst Cai Xuefei told Red Star Capital Bureau that Chinese liquor has experienced multiple rounds of price increases, especially At the level of wine companies in disadvantaged areas, the blind high-endization is out of the daily needs of the people and has a certain negative impact.
The guidance at the national level is conducive to the healthy development of the industry, and is of certain value for the cooling of high-end liquor at the moment.
Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Li Weiming
Comprehensive website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and State Supervision Commission