Xinliang has been listed one after another, and prices have gradually fallen——

　　Domestic corn supply and demand situation continues to improve

　　Our reporter Liu Hui

　　Since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as changes in the relationship between corn supply and demand, a rebound in grain demand, increased market expectations, and ample social funds, domestic corn prices have continued to run at a high level.

In order to ensure the smooth operation of the market, the relevant state departments have increased the supply of corn by continuously introducing policy-oriented corn and increasing the import of corn and its substitutes.

Since August, the supply and demand situation has improved and the price of corn has dropped as the new southern grains have been listed successively.

　　The increase in rigid demand is an important reason for the increase in corn prices this year.

Experts believe that this year, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the stock period of the aquaculture industry has been extended, the demand for feed has increased, and the sales have grown rapidly.

Moreover, as the destocking of temporary corn storage is about to be completed, some market players worry that the corn production and demand gap cannot be filled. Corn prices are expected to rise, and inventories are generally increased. Some speculative capital chasing the increase in speculation has virtually increased corn demand.

　　In the past few years, my country's corn output has grown rapidly, with prominent periodic surplus problems and high inventories.

In order to promote the destocking of corn, on the one hand, the state has promoted structural reforms on the agricultural supply side and market-oriented reform of corn purchasing and storage, actively reducing the corn planting area, accumulatively reducing the corn planting area by more than 50 million mu; on the other hand, the main corn production in Northeast China The development of deep processing industry in the district, and the gradual recovery of live pig production this year, the rigid demand for corn has increased.

Between "one decrease and one increase", the gap between corn production and demand has widened, and the relationship between supply and demand has changed from overproduction to tight balance between supply and demand.

Experts believe that as the task of destocking corn is completed, the next step is to focus on the recovery growth of output.

　　It should be noted that the expansion of the corn production and demand gap does not mean that there is a gap in my country's corn supply.

Wang Xiaohui, deputy director of the National Cereals and Oils Information Center, believes that my country's corn stocks are abundant and control measures are abundant, and the market gap can be filled through control measures such as policy-based corn release, corn imports, and inter-variety adjustments.

　　Policy-based corn is an important channel to meet market supply.

It is understood that since May 28 this year, the National Grain Trading Platform has continuously put 4 million tons of temporarily stored corn every week, and it has been put on for 15 weeks by early September.

China Grain Reserve also put some one-time reserve corn on the market.

At present, the total transaction volume of policy corn is 64.75 million tons, and the transaction volume can make up for the gap in production and demand, and there is a large surplus.

The country's continuous supply of corn has changed the gap previously generally expected by the market to a certain extent.

Judging from the auction results in early September, 4.01 million tons of corn were put in that week, and 1.35 million tons were sold. The transaction rate was only 33.6%, while the previous transaction rate was close to 100%.

　　The increase in imports of corn and alternative grains can effectively guarantee the stability of domestic market supply and the reasonable range of market prices.

According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first half of this year, my country imported 3.65 million tons of corn, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; imported 1.77 million tons of sorghum; and imported 2.445 million tons of barley, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%.

Imports of corn distillers grains were 19,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%.

The import of cassava (mainly dried cassava) was 1.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.9%.

　　Changes in the price ratio between corn and wheat will prompt feed companies to use wheat instead of corn as feed, which can ease the pressure on domestic corn supply to a certain extent.

It is understood that when the corn market price is high around 2011, the amount of wheat used as feed reaches 30 million tons.

According to the current corn price level, the demand for some companies to use wheat as feed material is increasing. The National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates that between 2020 and 2021, there will be about 17.5 million tons of wheat used as feed.

This is not only conducive to digesting part of the overdue storage of rice and wheat that are not suitable for consumption to feed companies, but also able to balance the supply and demand of the feed grain market.

　　Since August, new grains in the main corn-producing areas such as Huanghuai, North China and Northeast China will be listed from south to north. There is a situation of simultaneous supply of old and new grains in the market. The domestic corn market supply has improved significantly, and prices have dropped. .

　　However, the market is generally optimistic about new corn prices this year.

Wang Xiaohui believes that there are two main factors that currently support corn prices: First, the rigid demand for corn has increased.

Domestic pig production capacity continued to recover.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the stock of reproductive sows and pigs have both increased year-on-year.

Processing capacity continues to increase, and corn feed consumption and industrial demand are strong.

Second, the market has basically consistent expectations for the gap in corn production and demand. Especially under the normalized epidemic prevention and control situation, market entities are sensitive to bullish factors and have an amplification effect.

However, affected by factors such as the introduction of policy-oriented corn and the successive listing of new grains, the corn market will also face pressure that cannot be ignored, which may have a certain inhibitory effect on later price increases.