The People's Bank of China: August social financing increased by 3.58 trillion yuan
The August financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China on September 11 showed that at the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 213.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the end of the previous month and higher than the same period last year. 2.2 percentage points, maintaining double-digit growth for six consecutive months; August social financing increased by 3.58 trillion yuan, 1.39 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; August RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase 69.4 billion yuan.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, finance has continued to increase its support for the real economy, and the growth rate of M2 is still significantly higher than the same period last year.
"On the whole, the M2 growth rate maintains a reasonable growth, which will help support the real economy while preventing risks. In addition, the narrow money (M1) in August increased by 8% year-on-year, setting a new high since March 2018. The rebound of the new orders PMI index and the improvement of PPI in August indicate that there have been positive changes in business activities," said Wen Bin.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that the new RMB loans in August rebounded seasonally from the previous month, while the year-on-year increase was driven by medium and long-term corporate loans and residential loans-the former reflects the effect of policy guidance and the improvement in the financing needs of the real economy The latter is attributed to the pick-up of consumer demand and so on.
In terms of social finance, August social finance increased substantially both month-on-month and year-on-year.
Among them, government bonds have become the main force driving the expansion of social financing in August, driven by the issuance of local government special bonds.
"The M2 growth rate continued to decline at the end of August, directly due to the large-scale issuance of local government special bonds in August, and fiscal deposits increased sharply year-on-year. At the end of August, the M1 growth rate hit a 30-month high, reflecting that the economic restoration process is progressing rapidly. The business activities of such market entities tend to be active." Wang Qing said.
According to Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, August financial data performed strongly.
From the perspective of social financing and credit structure, monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the real economy, and the financing environment of the real economy continues to improve. This shows that the effects of a series of relief support policies have continued to be released and the demand-side recovery has gradually accelerated.
At the same time, it also indicates that the domestic economy will continue to recover and expand.
"This month's financial data has eased the market's concerns about the'turn' of domestic monetary policy to a large extent. The domestic monetary and credit environment has maintained a suitable pattern. Judging from the historically low domestic money market interest rates, domestic liquidity remains reasonably sufficient." Zhou Maohua said.
Wen Bin also said that in the recent market, there are concerns that the monetary policy will converge too quickly, which will bring negative effects. However, the performance of credit and social financing in August indicates that July was less than expected. It is more caused by disturbance factors. Monetary policy is still affecting entities. The economic recovery has formed greater support.
"In the next stage, the monetary policy will be more focused on precise guidance." Wen Bin said that in terms of total amount, we will insist on not engaging in flood irrigation, and credit and social financing will maintain a moderate and reasonable growth. The annual incremental plan for integrating 20 trillion yuan in credit, there is still room for nearly 4 trillion yuan in social financing and 5.6 trillion yuan in credit for the remaining four months. As the economy recovers, the remaining increment will continue to be guaranteed The enterprise forms a strong support.
In terms of structure, precise support for key areas and weak links will be the main focus of the policy, and the importance of increasing support for mid- to long-term credit to manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises, and preventing and resolving financial risks will become more prominent.
(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Yao Jin)