There is an interesting story about food in America.
It is the so
-called'five-second rule'
that it is hygienically safe to eat and eat food that has fallen on the floor within '5 seconds'
.
If you pick up food quickly, it won't be contaminated with bacteria or viruses.
Will it be?
Scientists set out to experiment.
The conclusion was,
"Within 5 seconds, you can get bacteria or viruses or get into food
.
"
What was important was not'how many seconds', but'what floor'.
Isn't it natural?
It's okay to stay away from the sterile lab floor all day long, but if it's a coronavirus-infested floor, even a second can be dangerous.
Scientists have concluded that the'Five Seconds Rule' is nothing more than an effort to be comforted in the name of'science' by eating food that has fallen to the ground.
As the American social psychologist Leon Festinger points out, maybe humans are not rational beings, but rationalizing beings.
●
It was Hong Nam-ki, Deputy Prime Minister of Economic Affairs Hong Nam-ki, who reminded me of this “5 seconds rule” to be comforted in the name of “science”.
Hong, Deputy Prime Minister is the sixth in the property market inspection between ministers, saying "assessment that one month appeared in the past now, own and after measures 8 · 4 Supply", "recent actual transaction statistics confirm the results, but also the price rises cases,
substantial The trend has eased a lot, including deals with lower prices in the region,
” he said.
How much have you been looking forward to'stabilizing the house price'?
It was absolutely nice and fortunate.
In fact, through a press release, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance
also delivered an
example of'Recently Falling Transactions in Major Area Apartments in Seoul'
.
It seemed that the effect of stabilizing house prices in all areas of Seoul, including Gangnam, Songpa, Mapo, and Nowon, was in full swing.
At least until you find the statistics yourself.
● I
'm happy to
see only what I want to see
.
Until you go to the actual transaction inquiry site of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and find the price of the apartment complex yourself.
The reality was a little different from the description of the Ministry of Science and Technology.
1. Banpozai, Seocho-gu (84.94㎡): KRW 2.85 billion (25 floors) in early July → KRW 2.44 billion (18 floors) in August
As stated by the Ministry of Equipment, this apartment in Seocho-gu, it is true that the actual transaction price of the 84.943㎡ complex has fallen from 28.5 billion won to 24.4 billion won.
By the way, the 84.998㎡ complex, which has almost the same area, increased the sales price from KRW 2.71 billion to KRW 2.8 billion.
There are also places to the right, but only the places that have fallen are selected and delivered.
Moreover, if the house price has plunged by more than 14% (4.1 billion won) in one month, there is a high possibility that it is an unusual transaction.
Local realtors also estimated that "the buyer is likely to be a family member, relative, or acquaintance who is in fact a special relationship."
When asked about this, the person in charge
said
,
"It could be a quick sale from a multi-homed
person
or a corporation, but I couldn't confirm whether it was a normal transaction or an illegal special transaction. There are some houses that record the highest and rise, but I do not deny it, but some of them have fallen anyway. Is not there?"
Asked.
My head was tilted to see if it was appropriate as an example presented by the head of the Korean economy.
2. Songpa-gu Recenz (27.68㎡): KRW 1.15 billion (5th floor) in early July → KRW 8.95 billion (19th floor) in August
It is true that this apartment in Songpa-gu also fell from KRW 1.1 billion to KRW 8.95 billion, as explained by the Ministry of Equipment.
However, if you look at the table above, on the same day on August 11, there was also a transaction of 1.07 billion won (blue).
Even though the two transactions, worth KRW 895 billion and KRW 10.7 billion, were concluded on the same day, the Ministry of Information and Transportation reported that the house price is on the decline with only the lower price among them.
This is a point that can cause an optical illusion, making the fall appear bigger than it actually is.
Hopes and expectations for the stabilization of the house price will all be the same, and there is nothing to understand in that regard, but it remains regrettable if both prices were explained as they are.
3. Mapo Raemian Prugio Complex 3 (59.92㎡) in Mapo-gu: KRW 1.4 billion in July (4th floor) → KRW 1.1 billion in early August (7th floor)
Mapo-gu The example of this apartment is more difficult to understand.
The Ministry of Equipment said that the
contract was
lowered from 1.4 billion won to 1.1 billion won (red), but if you look at
the bottom number (blue), the contract was again at the original price after only four days.
In short, the house price has not fallen at all.
However, it has to be seen that the unfavorable value has been deliberately subtracted to show that it has fallen.
In fact, it seems possible to point out that the statistics were'manipulated'.
4. Bulam Hyundai in Nowon-gu (84.9㎡): KRW 680 million in early July (19 floors) → KRW 590 million in early August (17 floors)
The case of Nowon-gu is also unfortunate.
The Ministry of Science and Technology said that this apartment's 89.4m2 decreased from KRW 6.8 billion to KRW 590 million, and it was a case of a decline in house prices.
However
, looking at the smaller area of 59.4㎡, the house price rose by about 10% during the same period.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy cited only one case that was also lowered.
It's a recurring story, although everyone's desires for the house price to go down are the same, but showing only what actually went down is a strictly different matter.
Of course, the trend of slowing and stabilizing house prices amid rare transactions is correct, and we sincerely hope for more stability in the future and will do so, but the appearance of the officials in charge of subtracting only such dramatic figures will be difficult to gain public recognition.
● The ability to see as it is. In
fact, the debate over statistics about house prices continues in the current regime.
When the Citizens' Alliance for Economic Justice Practices (Kyungsil-ryeon) claimed that apartment prices in Seoul had risen 52%, twice that of the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations, after the Moon Jae-in administration was inaugurated, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport rebutted that the next day only rose 14.2%.
This debate continued at the National Assembly and is still ongoing.
In addition, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said it undermined the credibility of national statistics when Gyeongsil-ryeon claimed that the rate of increase in land prices rose by 2,000 trillion won in the two years since the Moon Jae-in administration was launched.
Recently, it was argued that "because of the current regime, the publicly announced land price of buildings with more than 100 billion won in Seoul is only 40% of the market price, not 67%, as the government claims."
The government's claim may be correct.
Many of the people will want the government to be right.
This is in the hope that the reality is less sad.
However, as I explained earlier,
the moment I think
,
'The government will only select and show statistics that suit your tastes', trust will inevitably collapse.
The lightness of statistics is unbearable.
Moreover, even more so if that is the remark of the Deputy Prime Minister of Economy, which is the economic control tower of Korea.
Such distrust in economic authorities can spread not only to real estate but also to other fields such as disaster subsidies, as if Corona 19 spreads.
It is necessary to see a situation positively.
It becomes a hope for a brighter tomorrow.
But
more important
than
that is the ability to
see'as
is'.
How foolish would it be if you lost a coin in a dark alley and found the coin there because it is bright under the street lamp on the street?
The people look forward to seeing it as it is, explaining it as it is, and showing solutions in it.
We hope for the stability of the real estate market, not an optical illusion.