Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 7 (Yao Rufei) Today (7th) at 24:00, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Many institutions predict that the current round of refined oil price adjustments will likely be stranded.
Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Gas Station
Since August, OPEC has decided to reduce production from 9.7 million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels per day. According to Reuters' Chinese website, due to oversupply concerns, OPEC and its allies are expected to reduce their production cuts in August, but the increase in global new crown cases indicates that the pace of demand recovery will slow down.
On the 5th local time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that as of the week of July 31, crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels to 518.6 million barrels. So far, US oil inventories have fallen for two consecutive weeks.
Longzhong Information analysis pointed out that the economic recovery in Europe and Asia is still expected, the US commercial crude oil inventories have continued to decline, and international oil prices have continued to rise, but the increase in EIA gasoline inventories and the severe overseas epidemic have suppressed the increase.
According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since this year, there have been 14 rounds of domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2020. Specifically, there have been two upward adjustments, three downward adjustments, and nine strandings. A total of 1,630 yuan/ton for gasoline and a total decrease for diesel Cost 1570 yuan/ton. Among them, the six rounds of adjustments from March 31 to June 11 were all stranded because the crude oil price in the international market was below $40 per barrel. If this round of refined oil price adjustments are stranded, the domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2020 will show a pattern of "two ups, three downs and ten strands".
Longzhong Information Li Yan believes that the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on August 21, 2020. The recent positive factors in the international crude oil market have the upper hand. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments will be higher.
Zhongyu Information predicts that the domestic refined oil market will not experience significant fluctuations in the next price adjustment cycle. At present, it seems that the crude oil market will develop for the better, but under the situation that the contradiction between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated, the room for future oil price increases may be limited. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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