Trading in the offline gold market is active.
A few days ago, the international gold price hit a record high, so that the aunts who were bargaining at the bottom of the quilt finally raised their heads. "Aunty bought gold when the decline started in April 2013. It was probably in the range of US$1321~US$1,450 per ounce. From the price point of view, it must have been resolved. If you have held it until now, the investment income is still good. "An insider said.
However, today's spot gold has a sharp swing. On July 28, after the international gold price hit the historically important mark of US$2,000, spot gold in the intraday plunged rapidly, with a plunge of US$70 from the highest point. It went out of the “jumping up and down” market throughout the day, drawing the heartbeat of many gold investors. The acceleration has also allowed the Shanghai Gold Exchange ("Shanghai Gold Exchange") to issue a risk prevention and control notice.
In addition, the reporter learned that the domestic gold market has some formal investment products with leverage. "For example, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D (spot deferred delivery product) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold futures have a leverage of about ten times." Insiders revealed and reminded investors of the risks and returns of the market Proportionally, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.
Photo by Zhang Lu, All-Media Reporter of Guangzhou Daily
Market: Gold and silver volatility increased significantly
"A customer originally planned to come to sell gold in the morning, but because of an emergency, he had to come in the afternoon. Unexpectedly, he sold 500 grams of gold bars and made 5000 yuan less." The staff of a gold store introduced, but this customer was still very Happy, "He bought at only 280 yuan/gram, even if he made a few thousand yuan less, he still made a total of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan."
On July 28, after the international gold price hit the historically important mark of US$2,000, the spot gold in the intraday plunged rapidly, falling by US$70 from the highest point, and out of the "jump up and down" market throughout the day.
"Now that the price of the gold market fluctuates sharply, it can be understood as a high level of shock and consolidation." Chen Zhihao of Qiankun Gold said that the market price is re-selecting its direction, and there is a possibility of a change. On the evening of July 29, the Federal Reserve Monetary Meeting announced the interest rate resolution statement, which may be a more important time node. The market expects that interest rates will remain unchanged, but loose stimulus plans may be introduced one after another, suppressing the US dollar index and pushing up gold prices. However, the short-term buying profit-taking in the market does put the gold price under substantial pressure in the short-term. Therefore, we need to be wary of the sharp fall in the price of gold after a short-term surge.
Zhang Xiao, a senior gold investment analyst at the Gold Research Institute of Jinyafu Group, analyzed that since the rise of gold in June 2019, the continued net inflow of funds, the market has been increasing. For example, after the price of gold hit US$1,700 per ounce in early March this year, it fell by US$250 per ounce in 6 trading days. The next two trading days bounced back at $180 per ounce; the amplitude on July 28 was only more than $70 per ounce. Under the background of gold's record highs, such adjustments are normal. According to the past law of the gold market, even the strongest unilateral market will have a callback, and this kind of callback is often rapid and intense, followed by a steady rise, or even a new high.
Jia Ruibin, director of the Tianfeng Futures Research Institute, told reporters that for the current market, most of the speculation points have already been reflected in the price. Although there is a possibility of rising in the future, it should not be too high.
Looking ahead to the market, Zhang Xiao predicts that this round of gold's rise has a high probability of not over yet. The $2,000 integer mark is the short-term focus of long and short periods. The market outlook will also further increase the volatility. As the points increase, the same proportion of oscillations and amplitudes It will be even bigger. Investors must have psychological expectations and control their positions.
Shanghai Gold Exchange: Adjust the trading margin ratio and price limit
The reporter noticed that in the time when the precious metal market is hot, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has recently issued a series of warnings to warn of risks and increased the price limit and margin ratio of silver and various gold deferred contracts.
On July 22, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued an announcement stating that in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures, it intends to adjust the trading margin ratios and price limits of the silver deferred contracts and the gold deferred contracts.
Regarding the silver deferred contract, according to the announcement, if there is a unilateral market on that day, starting from the close of liquidation on July 22, 2020 (Wednesday), the margin ratio of the silver deferred contract will be adjusted from 10% to 13%. The next transaction The daily limit on the rise and fall has been adjusted from 9% to 12%.
Regarding the gold deferred contracts, the announcement information shows that since the closing of liquidation on July 23, 2020 (Thursday), Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+) N2) The margin ratio of the NYAuTN06 and NYAuTN12 contracts will be adjusted from 8% to 9%, and the limit on the increase and decrease will be adjusted from 7% to 8% from the next trading day. The announcement stated that if there is a unilateral market on July 23 (Thursday), if the margin and price limit adjusted in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures are higher than the above standards, the higher standards will be implemented. .
According to industry insiders, increasing the ups and downs means that transactions can be carried out more substantially. Increasing the margin allows customers to appropriately reduce the amount of positions involved.
"This is mainly to curb speculation." A precious metals futures trader said that under the new rules, the same trading operations will require more margin and the leverage ratio for speculation will also be restricted.
There are some formal investment products in the domestic gold market that carry leverage. How high are their leverage? "Domestic investors participate in gold trading. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange in the investment market have their own leverage in the trading mechanism. This can be understood as free capital allocation, that is, to enlarge the utilization rate of funds. Normally it is about 10 times, and the products in the futures market will be higher." Chen Zhihao told reporters.
Zhang Xiao also said that the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D (spot deferred delivery product) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold futures have a leverage of about ten times. If investors trade such gold varieties, the income in recent time is considerable.
Citizens: buy gold or collect as a wealth
Since the gold market broke down in April 2013, it reached its lowest point in December 2015 and then fluctuated in the range of US$1100 to US$1350 per ounce for more than three years.
"Aunty bought gold when the decline started in April 2013. The approximate price is in the range of US$1321/ounce to US$1,450/ounce. From the price point of view, it must be solved. If you hold it to now, the investment income is still good. "Zhang Xiao analyzed.
According to industry insiders, even those aunts who were covered in quilts in 2013 have not only been uncovered, but they can also have a profit of 30 to 50 yuan per gram. This round of gold prices continued to rise mainly due to factors such as the intensification of the epidemic, geopolitical tensions and the quantitative easing of global monetary policy.
However, many people in the industry pointed out that some people who buy physical gold would not choose to sell it now. "The citizens who bought gold back then did not necessarily go for investment, so they might not sell it if they get rid of it." Jia Ruibin told reporters.
Chen Zhihao revealed that for more people who buy physical gold, the buying concept is not for investment, but as a collection of wealth to retain future generations. Therefore, it will not be sold just because the price of gold rises or falls. Perhaps, in the future, under the trend of hoarding gold to the people, we can offer to consider more hoarding gold for other financial measures (such as mortgages, loans, etc.) to activate these real estates.
Many banks urgently suspend account precious metal trading
Guangzhou Daily (all-media reporter Lin Xiaoli) Recently, international prices of gold, silver, palladium, and platinum have hit new highs, driving the prices of related assets to rise sharply. However, many domestic banks urgently pressed the "pause button" for opening transactions of precious metals in their accounts.
On July 28, a customer of the Agricultural Bank of China received a text message stating that the opening transaction service of platinum and palladium products will be suspended from 8 am Beijing time on August 10, 2020. influences. Coincidentally, ICBC customers recently received text messages stating that starting from 0:00 on July 31, 2020, Beijing time, the bank will suspend the opening transactions of all products of account platinum, account palladium, and account precious metal index. In addition, the reporter learned that Minsheng Bank, Bank of Communications, and Agricultural Bank have similar announcements.
Many banks issued risk warnings
Why does the bank suspend the trading of account platinum, account palladium and account precious metals opening products at this time?
From the relevant announcements of various banks, it is mainly to avoid the risk of large fluctuations in the price of precious metals. For example, ICBC said that the international platinum and palladium prices fluctuate frequently and drastically. To protect the rights and interests of customers, the bank suspends the opening transactions of account platinum, account palladium, and account precious metal indices. Customers are requested to make transaction arrangements and risk control according to their position.
According to the Bank of Communications, in view of the current increasing turbulence in the international financial market, platinum and palladium are the products with lower liquidity and higher volatility, starting from the perspective of preventing risks and protecting the rights and interests of investors. Minsheng Bank said that in view of the recent large fluctuations in the international bulk commodity and precious metal markets, taking into account price risks and liquidity risks, it has suspended opening transactions.
The Agricultural Bank of China issued a market risk alert for account precious metals trading business on July 22, stating that customers are requested to be aware of and pay close attention to market risks, conduct transactions cautiously, reasonably control positions, and timely pay attention to changes in position fund adequacy ratios.
The suspension of position opening is only for new customers
Jia Ruibin, director of the Tianfeng Futures Research Institute, pointed out that the prices of gold and silver have risen sharply recently, and market volatility has increased significantly. Although there will not be a situation similar to negative oil prices, there may also be cases where the external trading margin of individual banks cannot be supported. Circumstances, and once the margin is damaged and forced to close out, it may also cause investor dissatisfaction.
Banks control potential risks by suspending position opening, similar to a futures company that no longer allows customers to open new positions, so as to ensure that there will be no case of over-position.
"For investors, because the suspension of opening transactions is only for new customers, the original customers are not affected when they close their positions. Therefore, for investors who want to invest in precious metals, there is only one investment channel missing. Although things have a certain impact on investors, they can also choose to move to other legal domestic exchanges." At the same time, Jia Ruibin emphasized that the current price fluctuations are fierce and investors must control risks.