Chinanews client, Beijing, July 28th (Reporter Li Jinlei) Recently, three indicators of the Chinese economy have changed from negative to positive!

  First, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has changed from falling to rising.

  According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 27, the profits of industrial enterprises in the second quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the first quarter was down 36.7%. Especially in May and June, profits increased by 6.0% and 11.5% respectively, and the growth rate accelerated month by month. .

Data map: On July 21, a busy scene of an automobile production workshop in Chongqing. Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Chao

  Second, the total operating income and total profit of state-owned enterprises achieved monthly year-on-year growth for the first time during the year.

  According to data released by the Ministry of Finance on July 23, in June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises increased by 7.1% year-on-year, and the total profit increased by 6.0% year-on-year.

  Third, for the first time, central SOEs achieved positive monthly net profit growth.

  According to data released by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission recently, the central SOEs achieved a net profit of 166.48 billion yuan in June, an increase of 64.63 billion yuan from May, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and for the first time this year they achieved positive monthly net profit growth.

  The positive growth of profits means that these companies are making more and more money, and it also confirms the continued recovery momentum of the V-shaped rebound of the Chinese economy.

Data map: On July 20, merchants learned about machinery and equipment at an exhibition in Quanzhou, Fujian. Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming

  Why can the profits of industrial enterprises increase substantially?

  Investigating the reasons, Zhu Hong, a senior statistician at the Department of Industry of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that first, the growth of industrial production and sales has accelerated, and the expansion of enterprise scale has brought increased profits; second, the decline in industrial product prices has narrowed; third, unit costs have fallen; fourth The profits of key industries such as iron and steel, oil and gas exploration, petroleum processing, and nonferrous metals have improved significantly.

  Data show that changes in industrial product prices in June affected the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size, which rebounded by 5.3 percentage points from May. Moreover, in June, the cost per hundred yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.22 yuan year-on-year, which was the first decline this year, and eased the pressure on business operations caused by the sharp increase in the previous cost.

  In addition, affected by multiple favorable factors such as improved market demand, recovery of industrial product prices, reduced cost pressures, and the effects of relevant support policies, the profits of key industries such as steel, oil and gas exploration, petroleum processing, and non-ferrous metals have improved significantly.

  In June, the profit of the steel and non-ferrous industries increased by 35.3% and 24.1% year-on-year, respectively, and fell by 50.5% and 49.3% respectively in May; the profit of the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 55.0%, and the decline was 83.1 percentage points smaller than that in May; the profit of the petroleum processing industry An increase of 1.86 times, an increase of 8.9% in May.

  The research report of Everbright Securities believes that the main industries where industrial profits have improved are the recovery of cyclical industries such as petroleum processing, chemical industry, steel, non-metallic mining, machinery manufacturing, and electric power. Driven by the recovery of production infrastructure and real estate investment, such industries Profits are expected to be sustainable.

  Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out at a press conference on July 23 that various indicators of industrial economic operation have come out of their troughs. As the situation of epidemic prevention and control continues to improve and the resumption of work and production is progressing steadily, the implementation of various policies and measures has been effective since the second quarter, and the industrial economy has shown sustained and recovery growth.

The picture shows the container terminal of Xiuying Port in Haikou. Photo by Luo Yunfei

  Will the profits of industrial enterprises continue to improve in the second half of the year?

  It is undeniable that although the profit situation of industrial enterprises in the second quarter has clearly recovered to improve, profit growth still faces many uncertain factors.

  Zhu Hong said frankly that overall, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, market demand is still weak, and enterprises still face many difficulties in production and operation. In the first half of the year, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises still fell by 12.8% year-on-year, and the profit growth structure needs to be further optimized. At present, the global epidemic is still spreading, the international economic and trade situation is complex and severe, and the sustainability of industrial profit growth is still uncertain.

  However, Xin Guobin said that as the country expands the fiscal deficit and the scale of local government special debts, increases tax cuts and fees, and strengthens financial support for enterprises, the supporting role of infrastructure investment will be further strengthened to ensure employment and promote employment. Consumption policies will continue to be effective, and new industries, new business models and new models spawned by the epidemic will inject new momentum into economic growth. Therefore, we have the confidence and ability to continue to maintain the stable and positive trend of the industrial economy.

  Everbright Securities analyzed that the export industry is affected by the overseas epidemic and the uncertainty of Sino-US relations, and there will be certain uncertainties in the follow-up. On the whole, under the premise that the domestic COVID-19 epidemic is under control, it is expected that the continuous improvement of the production side will still lead to the improvement of profits, while the current demand side recovery is slightly slow, and the improvement of profits may be correspondingly slow. At the same time, it is superimposed on the low industrial profit in the second half of last year. Base, industrial profits will continue to improve.

  Another analysis believes that entering the third quarter, due to the influence of the southern flood season, industrial production and profit data will fluctuate slightly, but it will not change the trend of economic recovery. In addition, we should also pay attention to fluctuations in overseas demand. (Finish)