Education, tourism, house purchase, social culture and entertainment have become popular consumption in the near future——
Where is the money spent on renewed consumption?
More than half of 2020, with the effective control of the epidemic, residents have rekindled their enthusiasm for consumption.
The People's Bank of China recently released the "Urban Depositors Questionnaire Survey Report", showing that 23.4% of residents tend to "spend more" in the second quarter of this year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. As residents have become more optimistic about the economic situation, the proportion of residents who tend to consume more is on the rise, and residents' willingness to consume has become stronger.
Where is the money going to be spent? The central bank report shows that when asked about the projects that plan to increase spending in the next three months, 29.8% of residents chose "education", 19.7% chose "tourism" and "buying a house", and another 16.7%. Residents chose "social culture and entertainment".
Education is the main expenditure, and the online market is booming
"Since our children entered high school, we have hardly been idle for a day, sending our children to various training classes." The daughter of Ms. Sun from Beijing will be entering the third year of high school this fall. In addition to the school curriculum, she also reported to her daughter. Many extracurricular classes. "Children have been outside to make up lessons since the first year of high school, and the number of words is turned outside. There are 2 hours of piano lessons on weekends."
Children's education consumption has always been the bulk of the consumption expenditure of many Chinese households. The "Report on the Consumption Power of China's Commercial Education and Counseling Market" shows that at the pre-school, primary and secondary education stages, Chinese households spend 20.6% of household expenditures on education; 14.6% of households account for more than 50% of household expenditures.
Ms. Sun worked out an account. This semester, she applied for 3 college entrance examinations and a round of online review courses for her daughter, which cost 13,000 yuan in total. In addition, there will be one-on-one tutoring classes on weekends, costing 1,000 yuan for 2 hours, and almost 10,000 yuan a month. "Children’s education is now the biggest expenditure in our family, and most of the monthly salary is used to give the children tutoring classes." Although the expenses are high, but seeing the children's grades continue to improve, Ms. Sun feels that the money is spent. It's worth it.
According to surveys by relevant agencies, the national extracurricular tutoring market revenue in 2019 is about 475.1 billion yuan, and it is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2020. The demand for extracurricular education has created a revenue growth of 100 billion yuan in the industry.
While the market for offline tutoring continues unabated, online education has gradually become a new trend. In the first half of this year, affected by the epidemic, the scale of online education users showed explosive growth. The "Statistical Report on China's Internet Development Status" shows that as of March this year, the number of online education users in China reached 423 million, an increase of 110.2% from the end of 2018. The relevant person in charge of GSX told our reporter that as of March 31, the number of people paying for regular GSX courses had reached 774,000, an increase of 307.4% over the same period last year; revenue was 1.297.6 billion yuan, an increase over the same period last year. 382%. "At present, GSX has established a comprehensive and relatively mature curriculum system to help students achieve'no suspension of classes' during the epidemic prevention and control period."
"After the school was closed, the children took online classes at home every day. The school's online classes lasted from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., and after dinner, they would have 1 to 2 hours of extracurricular online classes. We just signed up for 3 courses other than the number of languages. A round of review classes in the class started the intensive preparation for the third year of high school." Ms. Sun said.
The property market runs smoothly, buying a house improves life
"Now that I have lived in this house for more than 10 years, I want to change to a bigger one. Compared with the housing prices in Beijing in recent years, I feel that the housing prices have been relatively stable in recent years, and the'road of changing houses' began." Aunt Liang told our reporter that she had seen more than 10 communities and hundreds of houses, and had just ordered a second-hand house of 154 square meters in early July.
Xiao Zhao, the sales manager of Lianjia, told our reporter that the store she is in mainly maintains a community built in 2015 outside the North Fifth Ring of Chaoyang District. Affected by the epidemic, a total of 3 sets were sold in the first three months of this year, and one set was not sold in February when the epidemic was the worst. In April, there were gradually signs of recovery, and 7 sets were sold. "The first peak of this year has been ushered in from May. The customers who visited the house on weekends were arranged from morning to night, and many customers were off work to visit the house. In May, 14 units were sold in this community. In June More than 10 sets have also been sold."
It is reported that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing exceeded 8,000 sets in May, and the transaction volume reached 4,000 sets in the first ten days of July, and there was even a record of 2,000 sets sold over the weekend. Xiao Li, the sales manager of Ryetian Real Estate, said: "The Asian Games Village has also seen a rise in transaction volume in the past two months, especially the large units sold very well. In the past year, 10 units of villa units could not be sold, but 5 units were sold in the last two months. "
Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department of the People’s Bank of China, said: “Overall, the real estate market has been greatly affected during the severest period of the epidemic, and it has basically returned to the state before the epidemic.” According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 1 —In June, investment in real estate development nationwide was 6,278 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while it was down 0.3% from January to May. Among them, residential investment was 4,635 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from January to May.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in the first half of the year, the supply area of commercial housing in Beijing was 3.14 million square meters, the transaction area was 2.31 million square meters, and the supply-sales ratio was 1.4. The supply volume was significantly greater than the transaction volume, and the property market was in a state of oversupply. Many housing agency sales managers believe that the current real estate market is relatively stable, with the majority of customers changing houses. "People who buy houses and invest are almost out of sight. They are all buyers who live in." Xiao Li said.
In recent years, adhering to the principle of “no speculation in housing and housing”, the “one city, one policy” regulation mechanism has been implemented in many places to stabilize the real estate market. At the same time, it will actively guide commercial banks to optimize their credit structure, and control the financial resources invested in real estate within an appropriate range. "In the early years, everyone was very concerned about the proportion of new loans made by commercial banks to the real estate industry in various loan increments. It used to be as high as 40%. In recent years, under the guidance of corresponding policies, this proportion has declined year by year. The ratio has dropped to 25%." Zou Lan said.
Expert analysis shows that as housing prices stabilize and residents' consumption levels increase, buying a house to improve their lives will become the consumption choice of some families.
Traveling to watch movies, the cultural tourism market is picking up
Travel expert Xiao Liu hasn't traveled far for half a year. Xiao Liu works in a public institution in Beijing. She originally planned to make a domestic tour in the first half of the year and another outbound tour in the second half of the year, but the epidemic disrupted her plan.
The epidemic has severely hit the tourism industry, and it has also made it difficult for consumers who like to travel. "The first half of the year was suffocated. In the past few days, inter-provincial travel has been restarted. The level of emergency public health emergency response in Beijing has been adjusted from level two to level three. In the second half of the year, I am going to have fun in the country." Xiao Liu said.
In June, China Eastern Airlines launched the "Fly on Weekend", that is, after consumers spend 3322 yuan to purchase the product, they can redeem economy class on all domestic flights except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan on any weekend before December 31 this year. There is no restriction on the number of redemptions. Once the product was launched, the market received a great response, with consumers redeeming more than 65,000 air tickets in the first weekend. "I grabbed China Eastern Airlines' "Fly on Weekend", which can travel multiple times in China, and the price is also right. I plan to go to Shanghai in August and another trip to Tibet in October. This will definitely be worth the fare." Liu said. The relevant person in charge of China Eastern Airlines stated that "Flying as you wish on weekends" is expected to boost the aviation economy, fill the gap in the market, and simultaneously generate a new round of travel demand for passengers, so that consumers, airlines, tourism services and other related industries can benefit together and promote economic development Steady recovery.
Airlines such as HNA, Chunqiu, Jixiang and China Xia followed closely to launch "Flying as You Like" projects, attracting a large number of consumers. Wang Yan, a postdoctoral researcher from the Research Institute of Circulation and Consumption, Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed to our reporter that the major airlines launched the "Fly with Heart" program to provide residents with the convenience of weekend trips, superimposing summer vacation, National Day holiday, Hainan outlying island passengers' duty-free shopping policy Due to adjustments and other factors, the tourism consumption market is expected to usher in a certain degree of recovery growth in the second half of the year.
In addition, the central bank's questionnaire survey report shows that 16.7% of residents choose to increase consumer spending in the "social culture and entertainment" field.
Xiao Chen, who is still in college, usually likes to meet friends to sing karaoke or play room escape. "I like this kind of offline entertainment venue very much. I can relax my mind and make new friends. But the KTV and escape rooms I often go to have not been open for a long time. I haven't gone to play for a long time. When I resume business, I prepare to be the first Time to make an appointment with friends to consume." Xiao Chen said.
Behind the growth of leisure and entertainment consumption, it is inseparable from the general trend of consumption upgrade. Wang Yan analyzes: “On the one hand, as the income level of Chinese residents continues to increase, residents’ consumption has gradually upgraded from the traditional fields of food, clothing, housing and transportation to fields of culture, tourism, elderly care, and leisure. The epidemic has not changed the trend of consumption upgrades in China, and service consumption will continue in the future. It is an important growth point for domestic consumption. On the other hand, in the first half of this year, tourism and other leisure and entertainment consumption is one of the areas with the largest decline, and a large amount of entertainment consumption demand has been suppressed. As the epidemic improves, this part of consumption will show compensation increase."
The increased willingness to consume reflects that residents have stronger confidence in the overall economy. As China's economic situation continues to improve, residents have more positive and optimistic expectations about the economy, and they are more inclined to increase consumer spending, which will bring lasting impetus to China's economic development. "Especially under the combined effect of consumption promotion activities such as consumption festivals and shopping vouchers, as well as various consumption policies, the consumption environment of residents continues to improve, and the willingness to consume will continue to increase." Wang Yan said.