According to news from the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on July 16, the relevant person in charge of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs answered reporters' questions on hot issues in the agricultural product market. The person in charge pointed out that, overall, due to successive years of high yields and sufficient stocks, the rice, wheat and downstream rice noodle markets in my country have been affected by the epidemic since the beginning of this year. The prices have remained basically stable, which has also won the initiative for epidemic prevention and control. Judging from the later trend, this year's wheat harvest again, the quality of new wheat is generally better; the area of early rice has obviously recovered, the area of sown grain in autumn is basically stable, the harvest of the whole year is based, and it is expected that grain prices will remain basically stable.
In the first half of this year, China's agricultural product market has withstood the test of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic. The supply of agricultural products is generally stable and orderly, and the price changes are basically normal. However, some varieties are affected by the superposition of international market transmission, domestic supply and demand contradictions and other factors. fluctuation. A few days ago, the person in charge of the Market and Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs answered questions from reporters on hot issues.
Question: What is the overall situation of my country's agricultural product market supply in the first half of this year? Is the supply of agricultural products guaranteed?
A: Since the beginning of this year, my country’s agricultural products have generally been adequately supplied and the market has been operating smoothly. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in February due to seasonal factors and the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 6.7 points to 135.7 (in 2015 as 100), and then prices continued to fall, the index fell to 112.92 in June The month-on-month decline was 2.03 points and the year-on-year increase was 3.11 points, which was already significantly lower than the January level. Among them, the supply of rice and wheat is sufficient, and the prices return to normal after short-term fluctuations; the supply of corn and domestic soybeans is tight on a periodic basis, and prices have risen significantly; the price of imported soybeans has fallen and the supply is basically normal; the production of live pigs has continued to accelerate and the supply of pork market has gradually Increased, affected by consumption stimulus, wholesale pork prices have risen for 6 consecutive weeks after falling for 15 consecutive weeks, and are now approaching the staged highs of February this year; prices of "vegetable basket" products such as vegetables and fruits show periodic fluctuations, generally in line with normal years Seasonal law; the price of beef and mutton is still running at a high level, the monthly trend is stable and weak, and it has increased compared with the same period of last year; eggs due to the rich profit of breeding last year and the large amount of laying hens, plus the impact of the epidemic this year The price has dropped significantly; the prices of aquatic products have risen steadily, and the prices of individual varieties have increased significantly year-on-year; cotton and sugar prices have been weakened by the consumption downturn and the decline in the international market, and prices have generally weakened; consumption of edible vegetable oil during the epidemic has significantly decreased, and recent consumption With some recovery, prices have turned from weak to strong.
At present, China's summer grain harvest has achieved a bumper harvest. The planting area of the main grain crops is basically stable, and the stocks of rice and wheat are sufficient, which is roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of the people of the country. The production capacity of hogs continues to recover, and the stable production and supply of "vegetable basket" products are solidly promoted. The supply of most international bulk agricultural products is generally sufficient and prices are running at a low level. The basis and conditions for maintaining the overall stability of the agricultural product market in the second half of the year are better. Food and vegetables are generally guaranteed.
Question: After the outbreak of the epidemic this year, some people are worried that food is not enough to eat, and grain grabbing and grain hoarding have occurred in some places. What is the situation in my country's ration market? Will food prices rise sharply?
A: The fluctuations in food prices are closely related to the lives of ordinary people, and the degree of social concern is high. In late March of this year, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the domestic economic and social order recovered, and the demand for rations in the food market increased, coupled with the influence of some countries to restrict the export news fermentation, some cities appeared panic hoarding rice noodles, resulting in domestic rice and wheat And the short-term price increase of downstream products is more obvious. However, in general, due to successive years of high yields and sufficient inventories, the impact of the epidemic on rice, wheat and downstream rice noodle markets in my country has been very limited since this year, and prices have remained basically stable, which has also won the initiative for epidemic prevention and control. In mid-April, as the country increased policy grain input and the capacity utilization rate of grain processing enterprises increased, the tight supply situation in the market eased significantly, consumption gradually returned to rationality, and the overall ration price stopped stabilizing. According to monitoring, the average wholesale price of late indica rice in May was 1.98 yuan per catty, down 4.8% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year; japonica rice was 2.17 yuan, up 1.9% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year; Zhengzhou grain wholesale market ordinary wheat was 1.20 yuan per catty. It fell 1.8% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year. In June, the prices of rice and wheat rebounded slightly, but the overall situation remained basically stable. From the later trend, this year's wheat harvest again, the quality of new wheat is generally better; the area of early rice has obviously recovered, the area of sown grain in autumn is basically stable, the harvest of the whole year is based, and it is expected that grain prices will remain basically stable.
Q: The price of the corn market has continued to rise this year. The auction rate of the State Reserve auction is high and the premium is high. What is the trend of the corn market in the later period?
A: After the Spring Festival this year, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation improves, the downstream demand for corn continues to pick up, and the market purchases and sales are booming. In addition, the market’s expectation that China’s corn supply will be tightened this year has increased, and corn prices have continued to rise. The purchase price of corn in the main production areas of Northeast and North China rose to more than 1 yuan and 1.1 yuan respectively. Since the national pre-reserve corn auction sales started on May 28, the cumulative turnover for 5 consecutive weeks was 23.95 million tons, with a transaction rate of nearly 100%. The average transaction premium was 170 yuan per ton, and the premium rate exceeded 10%, driving the corn market to continue to strengthen. In June, domestic corn prices continued to rise slightly. The average monthly wholesale price in production areas was 1.03 yuan per catty, up 1.4% from the previous month and up 7.2% year-on-year; the average monthly wholesale price in sales areas was 1.11 yuan per catty, up 2.9% from the previous month and up 9.4 year-on-year %.
At the same time, due to the global spread of the epidemic, the plunge in crude oil prices, and the sharp drop in fuel ethanol demand, the international corn price has fluctuated and declined. The price of imported corn has been significantly lower than domestic prices. In June, the average FOB grade 2 yellow corn FOB US$158 per ton, although up 5.3% month-on-month, fell 10.7% from the February before the outbreak, down 19.8% year-on-year; foreign imports with 1% tariffs in import quotas The landed after-tax price of corn shipped to ports in southern China is 0.80 yuan per catty, which is 0.30 yuan lower than the domestic price of corn. Driven by the price difference, from January to May, my country's cumulative corn imports were 2.77 million tons, up 16.0% year-on-year. From the later trend, as the country continues to auction corn for temporary storage, and the previous auctions of corn are successively released from the warehouse, and the imports of corn and sorghum have increased, the supply of corn market will increase significantly, and the price continues to rise. Good buying and selling rhythm, it is not appropriate to continue to stock up on bullish.
Q: China is a major soybean importing country and is affected by the international epidemic. Does my country's soybean imports have been significantly affected? How is the domestic soybean market going?
Answer: my country's imported soybeans and domestic soybeans are mainly crushed and eaten, and the market operates relatively independently. From the perspective of imported soybeans, the global spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has suppressed the demand for soybeans, coupled with the depressed oil prices, which has suppressed the demand for biofuels. The global soybean supply and demand relationship is loose, and the overall market price is weak. It is objectively conducive to my country's soybean import growth. In June, the average closing price of the main soybean contract of the Chicago Board of Trade (July 2020) was US$319 per ton, up 3.2% month-on-month, down 2.1% from February and down 2.1% year-on-year. According to customs statistics, from January to May, my country imported 33.88 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, of which imports were 9.38 million tons in May, an increase of 39.7% month-on-month and an increase of 27.4% year-on-year. It can be said that my country's soybean imports are limited by the global epidemic, and the import quantity and prices are basically normal. From the perspective of domestic soybeans, the price of domestic soybeans continued to improve this year due to the strong demand for food, and the recent highs have stabilized. According to monitoring, in June, the average purchase price of domestic edible soybeans in Heilongjiang was 2.55 yuan per catty, down 0.2% month-on-month and up 40.7% year-on-year. From the later trend, with the implementation of the first phase of the economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, soybean imports from the United States are expected to increase, coupled with high US soybean stocks and increased planting area, it is expected that the price increase of China's soybean imports will stabilize in the second half of the year; Entering the market, the supply of domestically produced soybeans is expected to increase and prices are expected to stabilize at high levels.
Q: The price of pork has been rising continuously recently. What is the trend in the later period?
A: Since this year, pork market prices have generally shown a "V" trend. Since the Spring Festival, affected by the continuous growth of production capacity and the slow recovery of consumption caused by the epidemic, the pork wholesale market price continued to fall to the end of May, a continuous decline of 15 weeks, and the average weekly price fell to 38.71 yuan per kilogram, a cumulative decrease of 22.9%. Since June, as the catering industry resumed operations, factories resumed work, schools resumed classes, pork consumption increased significantly, prices began to rebound, and the average price of pork wholesale market was 47.73 yuan per kilogram in the 28th week of 2020 (July 6-12) The price rose by 4.0% month-on-month and 105.0% year-on-year. The month-on-month price has risen for 6 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of about 9.02 yuan per kilogram. The current price level is close to the stage high of 50.5 yuan in February this year.
From the later trend, as of May, my country's live pig inventory and piglet supply have recovered for four consecutive months, meaning that after July, slaughter will increase significantly and pork market supply will improve. However, pork consumption has gradually entered the peak season in the second half of the year, and pork prices will generally rise seasonally from June to September each year. This year, when the consumption growth after the epidemic prevention and control situation improves, this may increase the pressure of the periodic rise. At the same time, it is expected that pork imports will increase by 1 million tons this year and poultry output will increase by 1 million tons. Taking into account factors such as the resumption of hog production, increased pork imports, and sufficient quantities of substitutes such as poultry meat, the market supply is guaranteed.
Q: Affected by the epidemic this spring, the prices of vegetables and fruits have increased significantly. What is the overall market situation for vegetables and fruits in the first half of the year?
A: In the first half of this year, the prices of vegetables and fruits rose first and then fell, and the fluctuations basically conformed to the regular law of the year. Affected by the epidemic before and after the Spring Festival, the labor costs of fruit, vegetable production, transportation and sales have increased. The production and sales of some areas are seriously disconnected, and the products in the production areas are unsalable and the prices in the sales areas have increased. In February, the national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 5.71 yuan per kilogram, up 10.4% month-on-month and 17.2% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 5.72 yuan per kilogram, up 4.0% month-on-month and down 4.7% year-on-year . After March, with the effective prevention and control of the epidemic, the logistics in various places gradually became smooth, and the vegetable prices showed a significant seasonal decline. The price fell by more than 10% for three consecutive months, and the vegetable prices quickly dropped to the normal level. In June, heavy rain continued in the south, strong convection weather occurred in the main summer vegetable production areas such as Hebei and Shandong in the north, and the price of vegetables was affected by the disaster. The average wholesale price of 28 vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 4.03 yuan per kilogram. It was up 3.3% month-on-month and 5.2% year-on-year; of which, the prices of 17 kinds of vegetables rose month-on-month. Judging from the regularity of previous years, the vegetable prices generally entered the upward range in July and August during the "summer off season", and this year is expected to be no exception. According to the forecast of the National Meteorological Center, the precipitation in Northeast China, North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan and other places in July is more than the same period of the previous year. The secondary disasters caused by heavy rainfall and heavy rainfall may adversely affect the production and circulation of vegetables. The price of individual products may fluctuate significantly.
In June, as various seasonal fruits such as watermelons, melons, peaches, etc. were concentrated on the market, the supply increased and the prices fell seasonally. The average wholesale price of the six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 5.89 yuan per kilogram, down 6.1% from the previous month. , A year-on-year decrease of 29.8%. It is expected that as seasonal fruit supply continues to increase in the later period, fruit prices will continue to decline seasonally.