"People grab a house" becomes "room waiters"
Rents that have been rising for many years are now falling
Our reporter Cao Zheng
After the Spring Festival, Zhang Liang (a pseudonym), the freelance housekeeper in charge of a community in Chaoyang District, barely received any new houses. The district under his jurisdiction has about a thousand sets of free listings. At present, there are nearly 150 vacancies that have not been rented out, and there are also constantly vacating the unexpired rentals.
This made him a little uncomfortable in the past few years, which has been madly expanding and "grabbing" houses. Affected by the epidemic, the seasonal law of the rental market in key cities such as Beijing has been broken. The traditional peak season is not "vigorous" and volume and price have fallen. Looking at the transaction data in recent years, Beijing has continued to experience a "year-on-year decline" in rents for more than half a year, and rents that have been rising for many years have finally dropped.
10% discount on many rentals
"I haven't encountered it for so many years!" Facing the increasing number of vacant houses after the Spring Festival, Zhang Liang has basically stopped accepting the entrustment of houses.
Even if you don’t pick up a new house, the old “account” is also at a loss: Zirui and the landlord usually sign a commission contract of more than three years, and pay regularly. Now that the house is empty for a day, Zirui has to pay for the day. He explained that due to the epidemic, there was no graduation season in the rental market this year.
More houses and fewer tenants directly affect the rent. In the graduation season in previous years, there were many people and few rooms, especially in some single rooms with good quality. Now, the rent for the two-bedroom apartment in the district he was responsible for was about 8,000 yuan per month, but the set that was sold not long ago was reduced to 7,500 yuan.
When freely signing a contract, it is often agreed in the contract that the annual rent increase of 3%. "Recent rents can be adjusted without increasing rents in the near future, and the rents of newly released houses are also lower than last year." Zhang Liang revealed.
Now the rental market is already "rooms and others". The reporter searched for popular communities in Tiantongyuan, Lishuiqiao, Huilongguan, Yuquanying, Lize and other places on Zirui.com, and found that many communities have a large number of houses for renting. For example, there are more than 130 sets of shared houses in the three districts of Tiantong Xiyuan, and many houses are marked with "10% off rent" to attract tenants. "Direct discounts on rents have been rare in the past few years. The deadline for this one month is just to get tenants to sell quickly!" said an agent.
Rent decline has continued for more than half a year
Why is the peak season gone? After the epidemic eased, Beijing's leasing transactions rebounded rapidly, maintaining a high growth rate from March to May, but due to repeated outbreaks in June, leasing transactions declined again.
"The demand for rental housing for college graduates has decreased. Most colleges have postponed the start of school and graduates have to return to school later." Shell Research Institute analyzed that on the other hand, companies are currently in the process of resuming production and production. In June, the scale of demand for college graduates will be This has weakened, leading to the absence of the traditional peak season for graduation leasing.
Data from my home also shows that in the first half of 2020, Beijing's housing leasing transaction volume decreased by 23.13% year-on-year in the first half of 2019 and 25.72% from the second half of 2019.
Reflected in rents, the average rent in Beijing in June was 84.4 yuan/sqm, down 5.0% year-on-year.
In fact, in the past few years, Beijing's housing rents are also going through a downward adjustment period. "This round of rent decline is the first time since 2012 that rents have continued to fall more than half a year." Huang Hui, an analyst at Shell Research Institute, said that the trend of year-on-year rent declines starting in August 2019 has continued to this day. Beijing's rental decline since 2019 is the result of market supply and demand structural adjustments, reflecting the market supply and demand tending to ease.
The transaction period is about 40 days
Putting a house on the market is harder to rent than in the past. The Shell Research Institute disclosed that the Beijing house transaction cycle in June was 41.4 days, which was basically the same as in May. Although the cycle continued to shorten from February, it was still significantly higher than the average of 32.6 days last year.
From the tenant's perspective, the source transaction cycle has remained high since February, and the source transaction cycle in June was 23.4 days, while 2019 is usually maintained within 10 days. Overall, the lease market in 2020 is more difficult for both parties to the transaction than last year.
According to industry analysis, the market supply and demand pattern has tended to ease, the demand for leasing has been delayed, and landlord leasing expectations continue to decline, constantly changing to the "lessee" market.
"The epidemic in June and the decline in market trading activity may have a certain impact on the owners' expectations in the future." Huang Hui said that the market is expected to show a more stable trend in July. The rental demand for graduates may be delayed until graduation is released, and it is expected that the rental demand for graduates will be reflected in the market in July. However, the rental needs and rent-change needs of other mobile populations may continue to be postponed due to the impact of the epidemic, and will be gradually restored after the epidemic is controlled.