China-Singapore Jingwei client, July 11 (Zhang Meng) On the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for 31 provinces in June 2020. What is the rise in prices in June? In the future, how will the prices of pork and vegetables go?
10 provinces have higher CPI than the whole country
Sichuan data topped the list for two consecutive months
In June, the national CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from May. The increase continues to be maintained in the "2" era.
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client found that by province, the CPI of 10 provinces such as Sichuan, Guangxi, Shanxi, Anhui, Yunnan, Shandong, Qinghai, Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan rose more than the same period last year. The top three provinces with the highest increases are Sichuan, Guangxi and Shanxi, with data of 4.1%, 3.4% and 3.3% respectively. It is worth noting that Sichuan has ranked first in the increase for two consecutive months. In May, the Sichuan CPI rose 3.6% year-on-year.
In addition, Hunan, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, and Henan provinces have the same CPI increase data as the country, all at 2.5%. Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Tibet, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Fujian, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanghai, Gansu, Inner Mongolia , CPI data of 17 provinces such as Beijing, Xinjiang, Ningxia and other provinces are lower than the whole country, among which, Ningxia has the lowest increase rate, only 0.9%.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In June, among the price increases of various goods and services, the national food, tobacco and alcohol prices rose by 8.8% year-on-year, which affected the CPI (Consumer Price Index) to rise by about 2.64 percentage points.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In terms of specific provinces, the consumption index of food, tobacco and alcohol residents in Sichuan, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Shandong, Yunnan and other five provinces increased by more than double digits year-on-year, respectively 14.2%, 12%, 10.8%, 10.3%, 10.2%, which is worth Note that Sichuan and Guangxi also have the highest CPI growth.
Among foods, pork prices rose by 81.6%. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that due to factors such as slower slaughter of hogs, stricter requirements for epidemic prevention and reduction in imports, pork supply is tight, and catering and group consumer demand have rebounded.
Tomatoes and cucumbers on supermarket shelves. China-Singapore Jingwei Zhang Mengshe
Expert: Pork prices have peaked
Vegetables will not rise sharply in the short term
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of aquatic products in June rose by 4.8% year-on-year, and the price of fresh vegetables rose by 4.2%.
In an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, the head of the macro regional research team of the Minyin Think Tank pointed out that the pork price in June turned to rise. On the one hand, because the previous pork price has experienced a three-month decline, the price leverage on pork demand It must have a stimulating effect. Second, the recent slaughter of live pigs and strict anti-epidemic requirements have severely affected the supply of pork. Third, the outbreak of overseas epidemics has led to a decline in the volume of imported pork. In the future, pork prices will be repeated in a short period of time. Historically, the decline in pork prices after reaching cycle highs is volatile, and it is expected that pork prices will fluctuate sideways.
Speaking of the increase in the prices of fresh vegetables, Ying Xiwen pointed out that mainly the rainy season entered the country. This year's rainfall has increased compared with previous years, and flood conditions in some areas have affected the supply of fresh vegetables. However, fresh vegetables mainly have short-term volatility effects on CPI. As bad weather passes, prices will soon recover.
It is expected that the CPI is still likely to decline in the second half of the year, mainly due to the obvious rise in the CPI base in the second half of last year.
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, predicts that the current pork prices have peaked and there is little room for further growth. Pork prices will start to rise in the second half of 2019, which will have a high base effect in the second half of 2020, and will not become a major factor in the CPI growth rate in the later period.
Speaking of the future trend of vegetable prices, Su Jian believes that due to seasonal factors, there will be no sharp rise in the short term, but compared with the same period in previous years, vegetable prices may be relatively high, or it may be the reason for the increase in CPI growth. One.
Zhuo Chuang Information told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the pork price was high and the resistance in the end market continued to increase. In addition, the central reserve pork was put on the market again, and the raw material procurement cost of the slaughtering companies may fall slightly. It is expected that the domestic white pork market may stop rising and callback sort out. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)
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