China News Service Client, Beijing, July 9 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Pork, vegetables, and aquatic products have risen together. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 9th. In June, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June. This is an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

CPI rise chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics.

CPI year-on-year increase has expanded

  According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the resumption of production and the resumption of business continued, and the implementation of a series of policy measures to maintain supply and stabilize prices stabilized the overall market operation.

  From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 2.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose 11.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, affecting CPI rose by about 2.24 percentage points; non-food prices rose 0.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI rose by about 0.24 percentage points.

  "Supply was generally sufficient in June, prices remained stable, and the rise in pork prices drove the increase in CPI growth," said Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University.

  Specifically, in food, pork prices increased by 81.6%, beef and mutton prices increased by 18.5% and 10.9% respectively; aquatic product prices increased by 4.8%; fresh vegetable prices increased by 4.2%; fresh fruit and egg prices decreased by 29.0% and 15.8% respectively . Among non-food items, the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and healthcare increased by 1.9%; the prices of transportation and communications fell by 4.6%, with gasoline and diesel prices falling by 19.4% and 21.2%, respectively.

  "According to estimates, in June’s 2.5% year-on-year increase, the price change impact of last year’s price change was about 3.3 percentage points, and the effect of new price increases was about -0.8 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the CPI rose by 3.8% over the same period last year.” Dong Lijuan pointed out.

Data map: citizens select fresh vegetables. Sun Ruishe

Pork and vegetable prices rise

  In food, pork prices rose by 81.6% year-on-year, affecting the CPI rise by about 2.05 percentage points, which is still the main factor affecting the CPI rise.

  "Affected by factors such as slower slaughter of live pigs, stricter requirements for epidemic prevention deployment and reduced imports, pork supply is tight, while catering and group consumption demand has rebounded. Pork prices have changed from a decline of 8.1% last month to a rise of 3.6%." Dong Lijuan said.

  According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in June (the average wholesale price of white-striped meat) was 42.12 yuan/kg, up 4.1% from the previous month and up 95.1% from the same period last year.

  It is worth noting that on June 30, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 45.38 yuan per kilogram. Compared with the price at the end of last month, it rose by nearly 7 yuan a month, an increase of 17.4%. "Pork prices have risen by nearly 7 yuan per kilogram a month."

  In addition, as fresh vegetable prices rose by 4.2% year-on-year, Dong Lijuan said that floods occurred in many places in China, and there was a cluster epidemic in the new market in Beijing, which caused short-term supply of vegetables in some areas. The price of fresh vegetables decreased from a decrease of 12.5% ​​in the previous month. It was up 2.8%.

Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe

The price of pigs will rise, which will push up the CPI increase?

  According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from June 29 to July 5, the national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 1.2% over the previous week. The price of meat has risen, of which the wholesale price of pork is 46.3 yuan per kilogram, up 3.7% from the previous week.

  "Because the average price of live pigs in the country is still declining, the rebound in pork prices may only be a short-term phenomenon. With the increase in pig stocks leading to improved supply, the increase in pork prices will continue to narrow in the second half of the year." Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center Speaking to a reporter from ChinaNews.com.

  "The recovery of weak consumer demand such as tourism, catering, accommodation, and life services is a slow process. The price of non-food products may still be low, and it is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly in the future." Liu Xuezhi pointed out that overall judgment is expected in the second half of the year The increase in CPI will be significantly lower than in the first half of the year, and the average increase in CPI for the whole year will also be within 3%. "

  Guojin Securities believes that according to the current trend of pig prices, the July CPI will suspend the downward trend year-on-year under the influence of "lard resonance" and maintain at around 2.5%; thanks to the fall in pig prices and the end of oil price rebound, August-October The downward speed is accelerating; affected by the slowdown in pork prices, the downward pace of CPI growth from November to December will slow again. (Finish)