- With the departure of Gérald Darmanin from the Ministry of the Interior, Bruno Le Maire becomes the only heavyweight of the government to be in charge of Bercy. And also becomes the Minister of "Recovery".
- During the transfer of powers, this Tuesday, July 7, the minister insisted a lot on this point, which could reflect a change in economic policy during the coronavirus period.
- But at the same time, he also recalled that "we can do the recovery and remain concerned about public accounts", which questions some observers.
This is an a priori rather reassuring term in times of crisis. Renewed in the Castex government, Bruno Le Maire was not only Minister of the Economy and Finance, but also of "Recovery". “My roadmap is clear and simple. It will be the revival in the morning, the revival at midday and the revival in the evening ”, he insisted this Tuesday July 7, during the transfer of powers which records the departure of Gérald Darmanin to the Ministry of the Interior.
A minister taken at his word
While the return to school promises to be tough in terms of bankruptcies and job cuts, the government knows it is awaited new responses to the economic crisis. Would this new title confirm a particular generosity of its recovery plan, already awaited for several weeks? Secretary General of Force Ouvrière, Yves Veyrier took him at his word this morning on France Inter: "Since he is confirmed in the recovery, I want to say to him: Go ahead, Franco. We have to put the package on activity, employment, skills and wages ”. The union member also appreciates Bruno Le Maire's desire to "tax Gafa" and credits the minister for having "reacted recently to plans to cut jobs".
“What is interesting is that it comes from a minister who does not have this Keynesian and interventionist reputation. The question that will arise is the scope of this recovery. Either the games are really open, or it is just display, ”says Mathieu Plane. For the OFCE economist, assuming this term means continuing in the “whatever it costs”: therefore spending even more, even if it means increasing the debt expected to 121% of GDP by the end. of the year, in order to avoid a maximum of bankruptcies and a lasting depression of the economy.
Bloodless companies
"The counterpart to an ambitious recovery plan is debt," confirms the member of the OFCE. His observatory already estimates that the additional budgetary effort to devote to businesses to relieve their cash flow problems at 8 billion euros. However in mid-June, the executive specified that of the total of 463 billion euros mobilized, only 58 billion euros corresponded to fresh money, while 78 billion euros correspond to carryovers of payment deadlines, and therefore remain on the slates of companies. The remaining 328 billion euros are in reality loan guarantee measures granted by the State, which do not correspond to expenditure.
“There is the issue of corporate equity. Despite the measures, they have already lost more than 50 billion euros over four months. At the end of the crisis, they will have losses, debts and lower activity levels than before, "recalls Mathieu Plane.
Caution on recovery
For the moment, Bercy has been fussy about the idea of incurring new expenses, believing that it has already done a lot, especially with short-time working. Whether it's using VAT to stimulate consumption, increasing subsidized jobs, the answer has been the same so far: too expensive and not efficient. However, according to Mathieu Plane, it may be possible to trigger a VAT reduction in the non-relocatable services sector which would not accentuate the French trade deficit, while subsidized jobs may also stimulate consumption. "We have savings that are colossal, and simple confidence will not be enough to get households to consume," said the economist.
The tension on public finances has also been seen with regard to aid to businesses in addition to sectoral close-ups intended for the most troubled sectors. On June 29, when the third amending finance bill was presented, very small businesses did not, for example, obtain the cancellation of social contributions equivalent to those which concern sectors in difficulty (hotels, restaurants, tourism, etc.). ). The solidarity fund intended for them was only renewed for the month of June, to the regret of the SDI, a union representing very small businesses.
New boost for small businesses?
It remains to be seen whether Bruno Le Maire will remain on this line, or whether the appointment of Alain Griset, the president of the Union of Local Businesses (U2P) to the post of Minister Delegate for SMEs, will give rise to an additional boost. for small entrepreneurs still worried about their cash flow. He demanded, through his organization which represents craftsmen, traders, and liberal professions, the abolition of personal social contributions of the entrepreneurs and the maintenance until December of the solidarity fund. "It will be an economic recovery that will pay attention to the smallest," said Bruno Le Maire on Tuesday, describing the appointment of this former taxi driver as a "very strong political signal".
The "productive pact", which is part of the recovery plan, will also give an idea of the extent of the investments that the government will make to modernize the economy, and in particular French industry. For the moment, according to AFP, the government is betting on support for investment in production methods that emit less CO2, in particular via the robotization of SMEs, but also always on a reduction in production taxes that weigh on businesses.
France "addicted to public finance"
What can we expect from the Minister of the Economy today? Until his entry into the Macron government, the former Minister of Agriculture (2009-2012) under the Sarkozy era defended liberal positions: abolition of the ISF, reduction of unemployment benefits, capping of social assistance , abolition of subsidized contracts. Positions that he continued to hold once arrived in Bercy, claiming for example in June 2017 that France was "addicted to public spending". Still in May 2019, he claimed that the government had not renounced, by 2022, the objective of cutting 120,000 civil service positions.
And even in the midst of a crisis, he continues to recall it. “We can do the recovery and stay concerned about public accounts. (…) I see no contradiction between the two. (…) There is a real question about public accounts, about the level of debt, we will answer it. And there is no question that the economic recovery will come at the expense, in the long term, of the good performance of French public accounts, "he insisted on Tuesday.
"It is not a radical"
Words that do not fully convince Jonas Haddad, vice-president of the Concorde Foundation, a liberal economic think tank who fears, despite the precautions of Bruno Le Maire, that the debt will run out more given the absence of savings on public spending that could have been reused. “What makes us doubt is that there are a number of structural reforms that have not been made, on the public service, social fraud. Since entering government, the reduction in public spending has not been drastic and on industrial policy, there has been no huge quantitative or qualitative leap, "explains the lawyer, member of the Les Républicains party. .
Enough to question the economic positions of Bruno Le Maire, which have changed considerably since he entered government under the Macron era. "I wouldn't know where to put it. It is not a radical, ”recognizes Jonas Haddad. What the interested party also admits in his own way. "There would have been few people to bet that, three years later, we would be able to spend so much public money, that the state would support the French economy as powerfully. Spending tens of billions for our SMEs, our VSEs, our freelancers, our traders, if not to reinvent ourselves, I don't know what it's called! ", He recognized on June 29, before the deputies.
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- Jean Castex
- Bruno Le Maire
- Recovery plan
- Economy