Price data for June and the first half of the year will be announced soon. Analysts believe that under the influence of multiple factors such as pig prices and falling tails, the national consumer price index (CPI) in the second half of the year will continue to narrow year-on-year, and the annual price will show a trend of high and low, generally within a reasonable range . In the second half of the year, the year-on-year decline in the national producer producer price index (PPI) is expected to narrow, showing a slow recovery.
"Pig Cycle" peaks and falls
Live pig inventory is a leading indicator of pork prices. Xie Yunliang, the chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that due to multiple factors such as the obstruction of the slaughter of pigs during the Spring Festival, pigs will quickly make up for the slaughter, and the price of pigs may fall rapidly in the second half of the year.
According to Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, the "pig cycle" has peaked and dropped. In the medium term, the supply of the hog industry chain has continued to pick up, and the number of sows and hogs has been growing for several months. In the context of the high base of pig prices last year, the pull of pork prices on CPI will gradually weaken.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as pig prices and falling tail factors, the CPI increase is expected to continue to narrow in the second half of the year.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said recently that there are more conditions for the overall price stability or stable decline in the later period: first, China's grain production is generally stable, and summer grain harvests are in sight, laying a solid foundation for stable food prices; second, live pig production Increased pork prices have reduced the effect of pushing up CPI. Third, the prices of industrial products are operating at a low level. The price of international commodities has dropped significantly, and the transmission of consumer goods prices has been weak. Fourth, the impact of tailing factors is also falling. The impact of factors on CPI will decline quarter by quarter. "Consumer prices have been steadily decreasing throughout the year, and there is a greater possibility of'being high before being low'."
PPI "dark moment" has passed
Looking forward to the trend of PPI, Li Chao believes that the price of industrial products will show a low slope repair trend in the second half of the year. "The "dark moment" of PPI has passed, crude oil prices have bottomed out, overseas economies have restarted one after another, and the prices of industrial products have begun to phase out, and the year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to narrow." Li Chao said that commodity prices do not yet have a rapid upward trend. basis.
Guosheng Securities report believes that terminal demand continues to recover, and the PPI decline will continue to narrow, the lowest point of the same period has occurred, and the subsequent PPI will slowly rebound. Considering that the current inventory level is relatively high, it is difficult for PPI to rise substantially.
Ni Mingya