The second half of China's economy is worth looking forward to (Ruijing)

　　Our reporter Wang Junling

　　Not long ago, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the updated content of the World Economic Outlook Report, it believed that the world economy was facing the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s. The IMF also said: "It is estimated that by 2020, the only major economy that can achieve positive growth is China." This judgment has aroused great concern at home and abroad about the trend of the Chinese economy.

　　Many analysts pointed out that in the face of the sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China has laid a solid foundation for resuming production and economic recovery with effective response. At the same time, a series of targeted "six stability" and "six guarantees" and policy measures related to deepening reforms and expanding opening up are also providing strong support for China's economic recovery. Therefore, whether in the short or long term, China's "second half" of the economy is worth looking forward to.

　　Important indicators frequently show positive signals

　　Why can the Chinese economy give people confidence again? Positive changes in many important data are evidence.

　　For example, in May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country reached 582.34 billion yuan, which decreased from a 4.3% year-on-year decrease in April to an increase of 6.0%. In another example, the electricity consumption of the whole society in May was 592.6 billion kWh, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year The national power generation is growing at a faster rate. In early June, the national full-caliber power generation increased by approximately 9.1% year-on-year. In another example, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.9%, and both supply and demand continued to pick up. Non-manufacturing business activities The index is 54.4%, which has rebounded for 4 consecutive months...

　　Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out in an interview with this reporter that recent important indicators of China's economy have frequently shown positive signals, which fully reflects China's tremendous results in the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.

　　"On the one hand, China has a super-large market, abundant human resources, and strong factor guarantee conditions; on the other hand, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is the most important factor affecting economic and social operation. In the face of the epidemic, China has adopted timely and decisive prevention Control measures, scientific prevention and control of epidemic situation, orderly resumption of production and production, and at the same time strengthen the'six stability' and six guarantees' measures in production, distribution, exchange, consumption and other fields, thus laying the foundation for economic recovery in the first half of the year. Said Zhang Liqun.

　　Sergey Lukonen, an economist at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicts that although the indicators are not high, China will still be the fastest-growing country among the major economies this year, while East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region will also It is the fastest growing region in the world.

　　Steady policies are expected to continue to improve

　　Since the beginning of this year, a series of effective policies have brought a significant positive impact on the Chinese economy.

　　In terms of targeted poverty alleviation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office and other four departments have introduced initiatives to further expand the target of microcredit support for poverty alleviation and extend the repayment period of microfinance poverty alleviation affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. In terms of aspects, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Transfer of Exported Products to Domestic Sales” to help foreign trade enterprises better penetrate the domestic market through ten specific measures; in terms of financial support, this year the central government approved two new deficits and special national bonds. "Trillion yuan" to support local implementation of measures to help small, medium and micro enterprises, self-employed industrial and commercial households and people in need, which are most affected by the epidemic, and strengthen public health and other infrastructure construction and anti-epidemic expenditures...

　　Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that real estate investment and infrastructure investment will take the lead in the second quarter, and consumption will also be more significantly covered from the third quarter, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year. Therefore, under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, driving economic growth will be coordinated by consumption and investment.

　　"On the investment side, under the force of counter-cyclical policies, the monthly infrastructure has turned positive year-on-year, and the construction of new infrastructure has also been steadily advancing; on the consumer side, retail sales of enterprises above designated size have been significantly restored to close to the growth rate of the same period last year, and online retailing continues High-speed growth. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we expect personal consumption, government investment, and corporate investment to continue to rise in the context of fiscal easing and credit expansion." said Yang Ling, general manager of Xingshi Investment.

　　Active transformation and development with higher quality

　　The "second half" of China's economy is worth looking forward to, not only in economic figures, but also in the conversion of growth momentum and the improvement of development quality.

　　"The digital economy is fully accelerating, intelligent and technological products are growing rapidly, remote offices, online education, online consultation and other rapid expansions, and new models such as unmanned retail and live broadcasts are constantly emerging, which will effectively support economic development." The country Statistics Bureau spokesman Fu Linghui said while analyzing the new economic momentum.

　　For example, Guan Qingyou, Dean of the Financial Research Institute, believes that in the medium and long term, the Chinese economy needs to release the vitality of production factors such as land, labor, capital, technology, and big data. "I believe that if this round of market-oriented reform of production factors is effectively implemented and truly implemented, it will be a great boost to China's long-term economic growth potential, and China will take the lead out of recession among the major global economies. To take the lead in offsetting the impact of the epidemic."

　　"A series of targeted policies on the supply side and the demand side simultaneously embody the strategic thinking of the Party Central Committee and the State Council of "based on the domestic great cycle and smooth the domestic and international dual cycle." Zhang Liqun said.

　　Zhang Liqun further pointed out that in the short term, the task of the second half of the Chinese economy lies in properly responding to the impact of the epidemic, effectively boosting effective demand, avoiding enterprises from falling into the "supply oversupply" predicament, and helping all economic entities return to their normal state to the greatest extent; long-term In view of this, it is necessary for all parties to accelerate the improvement of the socialist market economic system in the new era, deepen the supply-side structural reforms, and solidly boost key items such as infrastructure construction investment and residents' consumption. Zhang Liqun said that as long as "the combination of length and short-term quality and quality is improved", it will surely inject strong momentum into the "second half" of the Chinese economy.