National property market half-year test: V-type reversal of new house sales, "South is strong and North is weak"
In the first half of this year, affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China's real estate market experienced a lock-out and cliff-like decline. Later, as the epidemic was gradually controlled, the national property market was steadily repaired at a faster-than-expected rate, showing an overall "V" trend .
Looking forward to the property market in the second half of the year, industry insiders expect that the overall market will stabilize and the transaction volume will stabilize at the level of recent years, but the cities may continue to diverge, and under the premise of "no housing, no speculation", house prices will not appear sharp. rise.
New house "suppress first, then rise", luxury house first hot, just need to take over
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the total number of transactions in the 66 city new home market in the first half of 2020 decreased by 16% year-on-year, and the total transaction area fell by 14% year-on-year. With the epidemic situation under control, the transaction volume in the new home market recovered rapidly in the second quarter, but the number of transactions and area still fell by 5% and 4%, respectively, over the same period in 2019.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the first-tier cities in the first half of 2020 saw the largest decline in transaction volume in the new home market, of which the number of transaction sets fell by 25.9% year-on-year; the transaction area fell by 25.0% year-on-year; the number of transactions in second-tier cities fell by 16.6% year-on-year; the transaction area fell by 15.0% year-on-year ; The number of transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities fell 10.8% year-on-year; the transaction area fell 8.0% year-on-year. The first- and second-tier cities were greatly affected by the epidemic, but the recovery rate was faster. In the second quarter of stable epidemic, the transaction volume narrowed by 15-16 percentage points month-on-month; the third- and fourth-tier cities contracted by 12-13 percentage points month-on-month.
Judging from the transaction area rankings, Nanjing has the largest increase in the ranking of second-tier cities in the first half of the year, with the ranking increasing by 5 to 8th year-on-year. In addition, the cumulative transaction area of Chengdu, Suzhou, Wenzhou, and Hangzhou all maintained a year-on-year increase. According to statistics, the total transaction area in Hangzhou and Nanjing increased by more than 10% in the first half of the year, and the market recovered rapidly. It is worth noting that of the 9 cities that have risen in ranking, 4 are in the Yangtze River Delta region.
In the first half of the year, the luxury housing market was picking up before the market just needed, and the number of luxury housing transactions in some cities surged. According to the statistics of Creely, among luxury houses with a total price of 10 million to 20 million, the transaction volume of luxury houses in Hangzhou and Qingdao increased by 139% and 150% respectively year-on-year; and among luxury houses with a total price of 20 million to 30 million, Qingdao and Nanjing , Xiamen, Dongguan, the number of transactions increased by 367%, 100%, 500%, 139% year-on-year. In addition, the luxury housing markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing are still strong. For example, the number of luxury housing units with a unit price of over 150,000 yuan in Shanghai in the first half of the year increased by 131% year-on-year.
From luxury homes to the just-demand market, since May, cost-effective rigid-demand projects in Hangzhou, Chengdu and other places have frequently appeared in the "tens of thousands of people" to attract market attention and become a new feature of the new housing market.
Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, said: "Differentiation is the key word in the first half of the year. The differentiation between cities is obvious. The whole city shows a hot mansion in March and April. It just needs to take over in May. Some of the real estate sales are not smooth even if they are promoted, and the whole shows the phenomenon of "two days of ice and fire."
Significant differentiation among cities, Beijing and Shenzhen set new highs in trading volume in June
Like the new house market, in the first half of the year, the second-hand house market also showed a "v" shape. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, from the perspective of monthly transaction trends, transactions in the second-hand housing market began to recover significantly from March. The overall transaction volume of 18 second-hand houses monitored by its key monitoring sites was quickly repaired. The volume increased by 41.8%, and the growth rate in April and May reached 39% and 19% respectively. Although the transaction in June fell somewhat compared with May, it still increased by 21% year-on-year. The impact of the epidemic on the market is gradually fading.
According to CR data, the trend of differentiation in the second-hand housing market is obvious. Among them, the transaction volume of Beijing, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other cities has reached a new high of nearly two years in June, and cities such as Chengdu and Suzhou are still down more than 40% year-on-year. .
From the perspective of second-hand housing prices, under the epidemic, the average price of second-hand housing in key cities in the first quarter of this year generally fell from the fourth quarter of last year, and the average price in the second quarter rebounded generally as the market repaired.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the average price of second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai rose by 3.5% or more in the second quarter. The increase was the highest. The city with the largest decline in house prices was Wuhan, with a cumulative decrease of 3.5%. Compared with the same period of last year, the cities with the largest house price increase in the second quarter were Nanjing and Hangzhou, and the cities with the largest house price decline were Langfang, Tianjin, Qingdao and Jinan.
Forecast for the second half of the year: house prices will not rise sharply
Regarding the market trend in the second half of the year, the Shell Research Institute predicts that the performance of key cities in the second quarter is close to or has reached the level of the same period in 2019, the market repair process is basically completed, and the backlog of demand in the first quarter has been gradually released, while the investment environment after the epidemic has passed It will gradually stabilize and the demand side will also reallocate funds. It is expected that market transactions will not continue to rise sharply in the second half of the year. However, under the downward pressure of the economy, the real estate market as an important consumer market, its total amount will not drop significantly, it is expected that the whole year will stabilize at the level of recent years.
Ding Zuyu believes, "In the second half of 2020, the policy will continue to remain stable. Among them, the central policy still emphasizes stability. The local government may implement policies based on the actual situation in the city. The overall policy trend is still relatively loose, unless some cities have experienced substantial changes. Situation, such as rising prices and real estate speculation, otherwise there is not much need for policy contraction this year, mainly because of the overall situation this year, economic pressure is still huge.
Under this policy background, Ding Zuyu predicts that the sales scale of the real estate industry in 2020 is expected to decrease slightly by 5%. If the sales area drops by 5%, the annual sales amount will be about 16 trillion yuan, and the sales area will be about 1.6 billion square meters, which is still history. Relatively high area.
"In the second half of the year, the overall real estate market will fluctuate slightly, and the differentiation of cities and projects will further intensify. From the perspective of market transactions, I think there will be slight fluctuations in the second half of this year. In the third quarter, the transaction volume may fall back. There will be differentiation between projects and projects. Especially for some third- and fourth-tier cities in the non-Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao regions, the pressure of real estate demolition will be greater." Ding Zuyu analysis said.