In June, the Russian currency showed mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange. In the first half of the month, the dollar and euro rates were steadily declining and at the moment reached 68 and 76.5 rubles, respectively. Values are the lowest since early March. However, by the end of June, the indicators began to grow and exceeded 71 and 80 rubles.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank as of July 1 is set at 70.44 rubles per dollar and 78.99 rubles per euro.
According to RT analysts surveyed, in the coming month, one of the key factors for the dynamics of the ruble will be the state of affairs in the global oil market. In June, the cost of raw materials of the reference brand Brent on the ICE exchange in London increased by almost 10% and is currently near $ 41-42 per barrel.
Experts explain the positive dynamics of quotations by the gradual restoration of the balance of supply and demand of hydrocarbons in the world market. So, in its latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) improved its forecast for oil demand in 2020.
According to the organization’s assessment, according to the results of the year, energy consumption in the world will decrease by 8.1 million barrels per day. Earlier, the IEA expected a decrease of 8.6 million.
“Against the backdrop of the abolition of quarantine measures in most countries, energy demand has grown markedly, while the implementation of the OPEC + transaction leads to a reduction in oil supply. According to our forecasts, in the near future, the price of a barrel of Brent may rise above $ 45, which will definitely lead to the strengthening of the ruble, ”Natalia Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, told RT.
According to analysts, the actions of the Central Bank will continue to play in favor of the ruble. On March 10, the Central Bank began proactive sales of foreign currency in the domestic market. Thus, the regulator artificially increases the demand for rubles. In total, over the past time, the volume of currency sales amounted to 915.9 billion rubles.
In addition, the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia to a historical minimum also remains an additional factor supporting the ruble. This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev.
“During the last meeting, the regulator cut the rate immediately by one percentage point, to a record 4.5% per annum. At the same time, the Central Bank hinted at the possibility of an additional decrease in the indicator in 2020. A decrease in the key rate over time makes investments in Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ) less profitable. Therefore, investors are trying to pre-purchase securities at a bargain price. As a result, the inflow of money in OFZ supports the national currency, ”Deev explained.
Meanwhile, some pressure on the ruble is exerted by news about the spread of coronavirus in a number of countries. According to Johns Hopkins University, in June the number of patients with coronavirus infection COVID-19 in the world increased by more than 4 million and currently exceeds 10.5 million.
“Experts do not exclude the possibility of a second wave of a pandemic. The lifting of restrictive measures provided substantial support to the ruble, but a new quarantine stage will lead to a decrease in consumer activity and energy demand, which may have a temporary negative effect on the Russian currency, ”said Natalia Milchakova.
At the same time, experts do not expect sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. As RT analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Group, Yevgeny Mironyuk, explained to RT, investors positively assess the high level of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, the positive balance of payments data, and the low inflation rate. According to him, these factors ensure the relative stability of the national currency.
According to Artyom Deev, in the event of an exacerbation of the global COVID-19 pandemic in July, the dollar and euro rates may rise above 72 and 82 rubles at the moment. At the same time, if countries manage to stop the second wave of coronavirus, rising oil prices and positive dynamics of the Russian debt market will allow the dollar to fall to 67-68 rubles, and the euro to 76-77 rubles.
According to the forecast of Natalia Milchakova, in the following months of 2020, exchange rates will continue to fluctuate over a relatively wide range.
“Until the end of the year, we expect the dollar to remain in the corridor of 65–74 rubles, and the euro at 73–82 rubles. The dynamics will depend on the situation with the global economy recovering from the crisis and overcoming the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, ”concluded Milchakova.