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The covid-19 is going to make Spain lose this year practically everything it had gained in the six years of expansion since it emerged from the eurozone crisis in 2014. This is the opinion of the new economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) that have been made public this Wednesday.

Thus, Spain becomes, of the 18 major economies included in the study, the one that falls the most, tied with Italy: a spectacular 12.8%, which is also concentrated in the first half of the year. For reference, between 2014 and 2019, after the eurocrisis, GDP had grown by approximately 15%. The collapse of the activity that would be equivalent to eliminating at one stroke the most important industry in Spain, tourism, and which also affects public accounts. Thus, the State deficit will be, according to the Fund, at 13.9% of GDP, only behind Japan (14.7%), South Africa (14.8%) and the United States (23.8%) .

The output will also be slow. The Fund estimates a GDP growth of 6.3% in 2021 , which means that the expected reactivation after the end of the coronavirus will only allow less than half of what is lost to be recovered next year. In fact, in the fourth quarter of the year, the Monetary Fund estimates that GDP will be 11.4% in relation to the same period of the previous year. The reactivation of GDP will only be 6.3% next year. This means that the Fund has increased the collapse in 2020 by 4.8 percentage points (in April it predicted a growth collapse of 8%) and has only raised the forecast for 2021 by 2 points.

Likewise, the deterioration of public accounts is 1.9 points greater than the 9.5% forecast two months ago. These forecasts do not include the labor market, but in April, when they were less catastrophic, they already predicted an average unemployment of 20.8%. To achieve that figure, unemployment should rise in some quarters to possibly 30%. Now, with the worsening situation, the deterioration is expected to be even greater.

The IMF is already starting its report by stating that this is "a crisis like no other, with an uncertain recovery . " That applies to everyone. But more to Spain. The collapse of the GDP has few historical comparisons in developed countries in peacetime. To take one example, in the worst year of the Great Depression, 1932 - when the US president propped up the economy with a tax hike - that country's GDP fell just one tenth more than that of Spain in 2020 .

The problem for Spain is greater because many of its partners will also suffer an extreme collapse. Italy , as mentioned before, is the only country that falls as much as Spain; the second is France, with a decrease in GDP of 12.5%. The region of the world that falls the most is the Eurozone , followed precisely by Latin America , with which Spain maintains very significant economic and financial relations. The Latin American collapse of 9.1% is aggravated by the fact that this is the region that will have the slowest exit from the crisis in 2021, with an expansion of 3.7%.

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  • GDP
  • IMF
  • economy
  • Coronavirus
  • Covid 19

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