- Emmanuel Macron could address the issue of relocations in his address on Sunday. The subject has been regularly raised since the start of the coronavirus crisis and could be a solution to health problems and unemployment.
- But experts believe that industrial relocation is difficult in the context of a globalized economy, and that France cannot compete with countries where the cost of labor is much lower.
- The solutions to bring back the industry could be found in innovation and ecology.
"Rebuilding strategic sovereignty", "reducing our dependence on the outside", "producing more in France" ... Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, Emmanuel Macron has often mentioned the need for France to relocate its industry.
A wish supported and reiterated by Bruno Le Maire recently in the Renault dossier. Two days before a presidential speech which should address the subject, 20 Minutes interviewed three economists to understand the conditions necessary for these relocations.
Are calls for industrial relocations in France realistic?
"It is not something that can be decreed," explains Isabelle Méjean, professor at the École Polytechnique and specialist in foreign trade. The first question is whether we want to bring back the entire value chain or just the last stage of production to have the impression of consuming French. For the economist, who does not really believe in these relocations, it is above all a question of means that would be invested to develop the local industries.
Mireille Bruyère, researcher at the CNRS and member of the Terrified Economists, abounds: “We can announce the relocation of a company, but if it is integrated into a global value chain network [all stages of production of a product which provide a competitive advantage], it will be very fragile and may be relocated again within two years. It is therefore necessary to bet on the local, even at a regional level. And for economist Henri Sterdyniak, the crisis has shown that the model of many companies is fragile. They may be tempted to diversify or relocate. "Companies prefer to produce in low-cost countries, relocation could be done, but rather to the countries of eastern Europe. According to him, it would take a real proactive policy on the part of France and the European Union to bring back industries.
What would be the conditions for relocation to France?
The first of these conditions, for the three experts, is to show a proactive policy. The State must put in place the tools, such as subsidies or tax incentives, to allow the emergence of industrial companies, according to Isabelle Méjean: "It would especially require State orders to encourage domestic supplies and fill booklets of orders. "Faced with current and future climate challenges, Mireille Bruyère calls for ecological relocation:" We must produce goods that are repairable in a sustainable manner. According to her, by slowing down renewal, these quality goods would cost less in the end. She takes the example of the automobile and explains that France could produce a “sober” car, not clad in electronics like SUVs, because “anyway, we don't have the skills to do it. It would then be necessary to favor short circuits and thus benefit other sectors such as metallurgy. The economist also evokes the nationalization of essential companies, and takes the example of Airbus: “It is a sector that will never be green. But the company has great human skills. The state could rely on engineers to work on retraining and innovation. "
It is towards this same path that Henri Sterdyniak encourages relocation. The State could take this turning point by funding research and development "for hydrogen or electric cars" in exchange for keeping production in France: "But you have to choose the sectors well, it is useless to get started on the iPhone or the televisions, we are too late. According to him, it would also be possible to tax foreign products for ecological reasons, "a somewhat hypocritical way of protecting our industry" and to circumvent the principles of competition dear to Europe.
What would be the obstacles to these industrial relocations?
Bringing back certain industries to France would not be without consequences for the cost price of manufactured products. The cost of working in France is out of all proportion to that of emerging countries. Mireille Bruyère explains: “The error would be to relocate to become the best exporter like China or even Germany. The economist expresses the idea that if France enters into competition from a globalized industry, prices will remain lower elsewhere. Henri Sterdyniak abounds by advancing the risk for consumers' purchasing power: “It is complicated to convince the French to pay more for local when they are used to low prices from far away, even at lower quality. A question of means according to him. He takes the example of olive oil: "The upper classes will be able to afford it, but more modest families will not choose an oil from the south of France at 25 euros when they have one at 6 euros from from Tunisia. Unless you invoke the counterpart that patriotic consumption would represent, namely more jobs in France and therefore more social contributions for the system. "But it seems very difficult to me. "
If the three experts agree on the additional cost that would end up falling on the citizen, Isabelle Méjean puts forward something else: "If public money has to be used to modify productions, it is better to look towards diversification of suppliers. "In some sectors, a few companies share the entire market, for example in fiber optics:" All of our imports come from only one Chinese company. According to her, the problem does not come from globalization but from the concentration of productions, the interest being rather to diversify the sources.
Would industrial relocation create jobs?
At first glance, this seems obvious. But experts put a damper on this enthusiasm: automation. Isabelle Méjean explains: “We would probably see job creation, but at a low level. Companies currently produce in countries where low labor costs are more attractive than robots. It is possible that these labor intensive productions for China or India are more profitable with the machines in Europe. Henri Sterdyniak agrees. According to him, automation, which requires very little labor, would be the only way to face the current competition "unless you invest in innovation", otherwise the gain in employment would be minimal.
The solution, for Mireille Bruyère, would come from an ecological conversion that would lower general productivity: “We would obtain less productive employment but better quality of work and less use of energy. Productivity is not an end in itself. Only this economic choice would, she said, create jobs.
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- Covid 19
- Coronavirus
- Economy
- Emmanuel Macron
- Automobile
- Employment
- Iphone
- Bruno Le Maire
- Pharmaceutical industry
- Relocation