(Economic Observation) How far is China's exports from the recovery of multi-national economy unsealed?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, June 5 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Right now, more and more countries are starting to restart the economy, and gradually relax the control measures for people and logistics. However, the orders lost by Chinese export companies may not return immediately, and the task of stabilizing foreign trade remains arduous.

　　According to CCPIT statistics, as of June 1st, 28 countries including the Philippines, Thailand, Russia, France, Italy, and the United States have eased some control measures and initiated different levels of resumption of work and resumption of production; Germany, the Netherlands and other countries will allow some foreign countries Entry of people; some ports in Kazakhstan have resumed the opening of special channels for cargo exports to China, and Spain will also lift border restrictions from July 1.

　　However, analysts believe that the world economic recession under the severe impact of the epidemic is a foregone conclusion, and the probability of external demand continues to be weak, and China's foreign trade may be under long-term pressure.

　　According to the prediction of the United Nations, the global economic growth rate will shrink by 3.2% in 2020. Many of China's major trading partners are "severely hit areas".

　　In an interview with the China News Agency, Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said that European economic fundamentals were severely damaged during the epidemic, and people's consumption capacity declined, and the overall demand for Chinese exports is unlikely to rebound significantly. In addition, on the issue of reopening the border, it is difficult for EU member states to achieve synergy, and the EU's condition is that it must first open internally before opening to the outside world. This also means that it is difficult for China-EU trade to return to the pre-epidemic level this year.

　　China Merchants Securities macro analyst Xie Yaxuan said that although the epidemic in Europe and the United States has gradually stabilized and resumption of work has started, the epidemic will still reduce demand through unemployment and preventive savings. In addition, the current epidemic situation in emerging economies is still spreading, which will also prolong the time that Chinese exports are affected. Among the "troika" of investment, consumption and export, export is probably the most difficult to repair in China.

　　The weak recovery in external demand can be seen in some of the leading indicators. According to official data, the new export order index in the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in May was only 35.3, a far cry from the gloomy line 50, indicating that external demand is still quite sluggish.

　　The Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng also admitted on the 4th that China's foreign trade trend "has many uncertainties and uncertainties."

　　To hedge downward pressure on foreign trade, China is stepping up cooperation with neighboring economies such as Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN to promote market diversification, while seeking new breakthroughs for foreign trade through cross-border e-commerce.

　　Chinese Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said on the 4th that the ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea (10+3) special economic and trade ministers' meeting against the new crown pneumonia epidemic expressed willingness to expand cooperation in the fields of health care, smart manufacturing, e-commerce, 5G and other areas to explore regional trade New growth points for investment cooperation, and explore the establishment of more "fast-track channels" between countries in the region to maintain necessary economic and trade cooperation and smooth flow of personnel.

　　In terms of cross-border e-commerce, China has decided to add 46 new cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test areas, and it is clear in the government work report that it will accelerate the development of cross-border e-commerce.

　　Wei Jianguo, deputy chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that cross-border e-commerce has become a "vibrant cell" of China's foreign trade and will provide strong support for foreign trade to overcome difficulties. This year, China's cross-border e-commerce is likely to take the top spot in the world. (Finish)