Silver CIRC talk about the quality of bank assets, the impact of the epidemic:
an effective response to bad governance rebound Falsified Reports
After the central bank issued a document saying that later banks may face greater pressure for bad disposal, one of the focuses of the first press conference after the CBRC epidemic was also a problem of bank asset quality. At the press conference on June 4, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission emphasized that this year it is necessary to effectively respond to the rebound of banks' non-performing assets and resolutely govern various acts of whitewashing statements.
Some experts believe that "(bad banks) will increase slightly." Some interviewees said that the current monetary and fiscal policies are in place, which can buffer certain risks and pressure on bank asset quality, but do not need to be too pessimistic. .
How did the bank's NPL ratio perform in the first quarter?
The national non-performing rate is 1.91%, Beijing is only 0.6%
According to the disclosure by the China Banking Regulatory Commission in mid-May, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks (French population, the same below) was 2.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 198.6 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter; the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.91%, which was At the end of the quarter, it increased by 0.05 percentage points. According to the classification of loans, the balance of normal loans of commercial banks is 134 trillion yuan, of which the balance of normal loans is 130 trillion yuan, and the balance of special loans is 4.1 trillion yuan.
At the press conference on June 4, Li Mingxiao, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau, showed that the non-performing loan ratio of the Beijing banking industry was 0.6% at the end of the first quarter, and rose slightly to 0.61% at the end of April. "We are still leading in the country, with a provision coverage rate of 372%, showing strong resilience and risk resistance."
Banks face different pressures on asset quality due to different industries and customer structures of major customers. The Beijing News reporter visited some banks in Beijing last week. Among them, the relevant personnel of the small business department of the Bank of Beijing said that the key customer groups of the bank’s small and micro customers are technology and cultural small and micro enterprises. The overall operation of technology companies is relatively stable. Among cultural enterprises , Small and micro enterprises involved in the catering, cultural and tourism industries are affected by the epidemic, and the operating problems are more prominent. The bank provides financial support for these enterprises in various ways, and some of them help enterprises through some difficulties by expanding some credits. , Some have completed loan renewal through seamless connection to ensure the working capital turnover of enterprises. As of the end of 2019, the Bank of Beijing's non-performing loan ratio was 1.4%.
"Bank bad debts do have a lagging response, but not all banks' non-performing ratios are bound to rise." The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China told the Beijing News reporter that some companies encountered problems in the flow of funds for a while. Can live; some companies have high capital costs and thin profit margins. Give them lower capital costs and help them make some improvements. It may be able to survive. It is understood that ICBC North Branch is still recovering non-performing loans, and it is expected that the non-performing rate will remain stable this year.
But some banks have already been under heavy pressure on bad debts. For example, the non-performing loan ratio of Jilin Bank has been rising for four consecutive years since 2015 and reached 4.31% at the end of 2019, which not only approached the regulatory requirement of less than 5% of the standard value, but also exceeded the average value of the city commercial bank's non-performing loan ratio of 2.245% over the same period. The bank's provision coverage ratio has also been below the regulatory red line of 150% for two consecutive years since 2018. In response to this, Jilin Bank is also actively responding to it, through judicial collection, bad debt write-offs, increased loan restructuring, and the transfer of creditor's rights.
Will pressure on bank asset quality break out?
Expert: The current policy can buffer certain risks, and do not need to be too pessimistic about the quality of bank assets
In the face of the epidemic, the entity and the financial system are bound to work together. Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said recently that the quality of banks' credit assets is interdependent and influenced by the market entities' operating conditions and economic growth. If the market entities are allowed to fail, the economy may also stall and the quality of banks' credit assets Will deteriorate.
According to the government work report, the loan repayment policy for small and medium-sized enterprises will be extended to the end of March next year. The loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises should be extended, and loans for other difficult enterprises should be negotiated. But for banks, it means that they may face erosion of profits and bad pressure.
In this regard, Dong Ximiao, a special researcher of the National Finance and Development Laboratory and the chief researcher of Xinwang Bank, told the reporter of the Beijing News that it is not very significant to only talk about the trend of banks' non-performing loans. It depends on multiple factors, including the strength of the organization's own non-performing loan disposal, and is also related to the policy level. "If something must be said, I think there will be a slight increase."
In Dong Ximiao's view, the banking industry is not a new problem to prevent risks and resolve bad, because risk management is the eternal theme of the banking industry. "These tasks were originally the bank's daily'regulated actions', but now the pressure will be greater because of the impact of the economic down cycle superimposed on the epidemic. At present, there is no need for a special response plan, because there are always response plans."
Guo Tianyong, director of the Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that the epidemic affects more companies, and some loans are not allowed to be collected, so the pressure on asset quality of commercial banks in the future is still relatively large. But at the same time, due to the relatively strong monetary and fiscal policies, such as the creation of new tools by the central bank to increase the size of micro-enterprise credit, and the addition of 2 trillion yuan in financial aid for corporate relief, etc., it has a certain buffer against possible risks. Although the banks are under great pressure, they cannot be too pessimistic.
Huang Dazhi, a senior researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, said that the bad exposure of banks has a certain lag. For example, under normal circumstances, a loan is 60 days or 90 days overdue before it is included in the bad. During the epidemic, supervision has introduced a lot of deferred debt service. Supporting policies provides a longer buffer period, and the timing of risk exposure will be postponed.
In fact, the last round of the NPL outbreak in the banking industry is not far away now. After experiencing a golden decade of rapid development from 2003 to 2013, the banking industry has experienced a round of unfavorable rises around 2014. Some state-owned large banks' provision coverage also fell below the red line. However, in recent years, the banking industry's asset quality defense battle Good results. "With the development of financial technology, bank risk control methods have also become more complete. For example, many banks have established large data centers, more accurate post-loan management, and more tiered and tiered customers." Huang Dazhi said.
But the risk should not be taken lightly. Huang Dazhi said that in addition to the direct performance of credit loans as lagging repayments, mortgage loans may also face the problem of falling collateral asset prices. For example, the previous value of 1 million may now be only 700,000.
The current pressure on the banking industry to prevent risks and reduce non-performing loans is still great. Dealing with the stock of non-performing loans and curbing new non-performing loans has become a top priority. Dong Ximiao believes that in order to truly resolve the pressure on the quality of banks' credit assets, it is necessary to treat both the symptoms and the symptoms. It is necessary to adhere to the market-oriented reform orientation and promote industrial transformation and upgrading, especially to accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises and harden their budget constraints. At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the pace of financial reform, build a multi-level capital market system, broaden corporate financing channels, and reduce dependence on the banking system.
How to prevent and resolve major financial risks?
China Banking Regulatory Commission: Effectively respond to the rebound of banks' non-performing assets
This year is the year to close the battle to resolve major financial risks. Under the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the task is more complicated and arduous. Talking about the measures that will be taken this year to ensure the victory of the battle to prevent and resolve major financial risks, the first point mentioned by the China Banking Regulatory Commission is to effectively respond to the rebound of banks' non-performing assets.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that it will resolutely manage various acts of whitewashing reports, and urge banks to do solid asset classification, real bad exposure, and full provision. Unblock non-performing assets such as write-off of non-performing assets, bulk transfers, and disposal of debt assets, and guide banks to increase non-performing disposal in various ways.
In the financial system, small and medium-sized banks need special attention. Xiao Gang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out at the salons of the Beijing and Beijing Stock Exchanges that the capital strength of small and medium-sized banks is not enough, the ratio of non-performing assets is relatively high, and they also undertake the important task of increasing their support for small and micro enterprises. How to balance risks in this situation is more difficult for small and medium banks.
"We must supplement the capital of small and medium-sized banks through multiple channels." The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said it encourages the introduction of investors in a market-oriented manner, including foreign capital and private enterprises, and encourages legal and compliant mergers, reorganizations and equity investments. At the same time, it also actively promotes the enhancement of the bank's endogenous capital replenishment capacity and improves the efficiency of capital use. Support banks to broaden the channels for capital replenishment through the issuance of ordinary shares, preferred shares, unfixed-term capital bonds, and secondary capital bonds. Encourage local governments to raise funds in various ways to help small and medium banks replenish their capital.
In addition, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also proposed to deal with high-risk financial institutions in accordance with laws and regulations, persistently rectify shadow banking, promote the clearing of the Internet financial risk market, and severely crack down on financial corruption and crimes.
This edition is written and written by Beijing News reporter Cheng Weimiao Huang Xinyu