“Oil prices have become an important factor in supporting the ruble exchange rate, so the OPEC + meeting could not but have a short-term effect on the domestic currency rate. And now a lot depends on how the June 4 meeting ends, ”he said in an interview with FBA Economics Today.
According to him, if no agreement is reached, then oil prices could plummet. At the same time, the expert noted, the probability that the current level of restrictions will be extended until the end of the summer is estimated at 80%.
“That is, on the whole, ceteris paribus, it is not necessary to expect significant ups and downs from the ruble in the coming months. The exchange rate of the Russian currency will gradually consolidate at around 70 per dollar, ”he predicts.
For his part, FINAM Group analyst Sergei Drozdov, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, confirmed that the OPEC + ministerial meeting will be the most significant event for the ruble in June.
“There are two scenarios for the ruble in June. Optimistic amid the continued positive situation in the global financial and commodity markets suggests a breakdown of level 70 and consolidation in the range of 67.50 - 71.50 against the dollar, ”he said.
As the expert added, the pessimistic scenario implies a corridor of 70-73 rubles per dollar.
Earlier, Finam Group analyst Sergey Drozdov gave a forecast for the ruble exchange rate.