China News Service, Beijing, May 18 Question: Interview with Swiss Reinsurance Chief Economist: Optimistic about China's economic development resilience after the outbreak
China News Agency reporter Wang Enbo
Jérôme Jean Haegeli, chief economist of Swiss Re Group, recently said in a video interview with China News Service that he is optimistic about the resilience of the Chinese economy after the outbreak and will pay attention to the reform issues at the two sessions of China.
China's economic resilience remains despite the global recession
Under the impact of the epidemic, major international organizations and institutions have lowered their global growth expectations, even more pessimistic than the 2008 international financial crisis.
An Renli pointed out that the current global economic activity has shrunk and the rate of recession is twice that of the international financial crisis. It is expected that global GDP will drop by 3.8% this year. At the same time, the epidemic has also widened the global economic resilience gap, and some European economies have become more vulnerable under the impact. In comparison, although the Chinese economy has been severely affected, it is expected to soon rebound due to the first measures taken to mitigate the impact of the economic slowdown and empower development.
In response to the shock, some major economies have successively issued large-scale economic stimulus policies. There are views that these measures focus on boosting growth in the short term, which will bring more negative effects in the long run.
"Fiscal stimulus policies cannot prevent us from crisis, just as car airbags cannot prevent car collisions, they can only reduce the impact of collisions." An Renli bluntly said that these measures do make sense in the short term, but from the perspective of long-term development Insufficient, all parties should avoid repeating the mistakes of the international financial crisis, avoid relying too much on debt for stimulus, but promote structural reform.
Controllable supply chain risks facing China
The epidemic has exposed economic globalization to the new test of multiple "blocks" in the supply chain of the industrial chain, and China will inevitably be affected as a "world factory".
An Renli said that due to relative cost considerations, risk control requirements, long-term strategic considerations and preventing future trade disputes from affecting supply chain demand, the global supply chain may undergo structural adjustments after the outbreak. This may prompt the manufacturing industry to form multiple parallel supply chains, reducing the global economy's over-reliance on a single production base.
At the same time, he also noticed that China is currently working on enhancing the resilience of the supply chain after the epidemic. "As China's dependence on foreign direct investment in manufacturing is getting lower and lower, supply chain risks are manageable for China."
An Renli pointed out that China has a huge potential domestic market and is accelerating investment in "new infrastructure". These two points will help China transform into a consumer and digital economy. Overall, China has the best ability to stand out from the crisis, and it still has a competitive advantage in a series of basic indicators such as the labor market and infrastructure. The reform of the market-oriented allocation of factors promoted by the government will further strengthen this advantage.
Pay attention to GDP growth rate is worse than pay attention to reform dividends
In An Renli's view, the growth target is not as important as the reform. What is more urgent is to carry out structural reforms, consolidate the economic foundation, and optimize economic prospects.
An Renli told reporters that for the two sessions, he is more concerned about how the Chinese economy will strengthen its foundation, increase resilience, and optimize its structure, and continue to push forward reforms. "No matter whether the Chinese government announces a specific growth target or not, we will pay more attention to structural reforms and whether the government will continue to move in the right direction, which is very important for China and the world economy."
It is worth noting that from the intensive deployment of the central government to the market's active response, the "new infrastructure" has now been regarded as an important starting point for China to hedge the downward pressure on the economy and provide momentum for future growth.
"In the next ten years, 'new infrastructure' will activate the new momentum of China's economic transformation," An Renli pointed out that although the proportion of "new infrastructure" is still small in terms of overall investment scale, it helps to promote the overall national planning and improve The supply-side efficiency of China ’s economy and the mitigation of structural problems such as the decline in the demographic dividend will also help accelerate digital transformation, urbanization upgrades, regional economic integration, the development of strategic emerging industries, and support for coordinated urban-rural development. . (Finish)