"Trillion Club City" Real Estate Dependency Ranking: Zhengzhou Highest, Beijing Lowest

　　China-Singapore Jingwei client, May 14 (Zhang Meng) A few days ago, the National Information Center released the 2020 "Trillion Club City" real estate market trend judgment, and the dependence of real estate investment in 17 GDP trillion cities in 2019 will be released, Zhengzhou The highest, Beijing is the lowest.

Zhengzhou has the highest dependence on real estate investment and the lowest in Beijing

　　Data map. China-Singapore Jingwei Zhang Mengshe

　　The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client inquired about the statistics bureaus in various regions and found that as of the end of 2019, a total of 17 cities in China were shortlisted for the trillion clubs, namely: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Suzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing , Ningbo, Wuxi, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Foshan.

　　"Proportion of real estate development investment in GDP" is regarded as an indicator to measure the dependence of a local economic growth on real estate investment. The higher the proportion, the more severe the economy's dependence on real estate investment.

　　From the perspective of the dependence of real estate investment in various cities, the dependence of Zhengzhou and Hangzhou is relatively high, both exceeding 20%, especially in Zhengzhou reaching 28.9%. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Wuxi have low dependence, all of which are less than 12%. Among them, Beijing 10.9%, the least dependence on real estate investment.

　　In an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that from the perspective of the proportion of various cities, some cities have obviously accelerated land supply rhythm and high development intensity, so their proportion of development investment will be relatively The relatively high value also shows that development investment is favored by developers.

　　Yan Yuejin also suggested that a proper increase in the proportion of real estate development investment in GDP itself has no risks, but it is necessary to prevent various types of arbitrary land supply and blind land grabs, especially when financial policies are relaxed.

　　Guoxin Macroeconomics and Real Estate Research Group Gao Juhui analyzed that the high dependence of real estate investment in individual cities indicates that the dependence on investment is relatively high, and the GDP structure needs to be optimized by increasing industrial transformation and upgrading.

Land market continues to increase in popularity

　　New latitude and longitude in the data map

　　Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that from January to April, the nation's top 50 cities sold 1.22 trillion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year. Among them, the total land transfer in the 50 hotspot cities in April was 504.47 billion, which was also the first time in the year that it exceeded 500 billion in a single month. The average residential land premium rate in first- and second-tier cities in April was the highest since the second half of 2019. The average premium rate is as high as 15.54%, compared with 12.58% in March.

　　Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei that under the influence of policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, housing companies' enthusiasm for land acquisition has gradually increased, and land transactions with high premium rates have appeared again in many places. However, the difficulty of domestic financing has been reduced, and some companies' enthusiasm for land acquisition has once again increased.

　　Gao Juhui pointed out that since 2020, the real estate industry has been greatly affected by the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. The central and local governments have introduced relevant measures to stabilize the market. In real estate, the policy is mainly concentrated on the supply side, including tax relief or extension, plus The support of large loans, adjustment of the payment method and duration of land transfer price, relaxation of pre-sale conditions, postponement of completion and completion of production and implementation of contract performance, etc., these measures have played a positive role in alleviating the pressure on the enterprise's capital chain.

Expert: Demand-side housing market policy relaxation space is small

　　On May 10, the Central Bank issued the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the First Quarter of 2020", stating that it insists on the positioning of houses for housing, not speculation, and the requirement of "not using real estate as a short-term stimulus to the economy". Maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies.

　　In Zhang Dawei's view, the possibility of opening the door to real estate regulation and control in the future is unlikely. From the perspective of the current bailout policies, the policies to reduce down payment are basically all suspended, and the policies of loosening purchase restrictions will also be withdrawn. Policies have appeared in more than 10 cities nationwide. "Day trip".

　　Gao Juhui predicts that in 2020, the real estate regulation and control policy will continue to adhere to the principle of “no housing, no speculation”. The word stability will prevail, and the margin of loosening policy regulation will be mainly controlled on the supply side, in order to alleviate the operational difficulties of enterprises and the pressure of the capital chain But on the demand side, there is less room for policy relaxation, and no strong stimulus policy measures will be introduced. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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