In April, the CPI returns to the 3rd era. Will there be "revenge consumption" in the second quarter?
Beijing News (Reporter Jiang Huizi) The National Bureau of Statistics released data on May 12, and consumer prices in April rose by 3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of one percentage point from the previous month, and returned to the "3 range". On average from January to April, the CPI rose by 4.5% over the same period last year.
Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has continued to decline. The National Bureau of Statistics said that this round of decline was mainly affected by multiple factors such as better prevention and control of the epidemic, warmer weather, and effective measures for ensuring stable production and supply of live pigs. With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, people are still looking forward to the arrival of "retaliatory consumption"? Will this trigger a new round of price increases?
Food prices are the main reason driving CPI down
Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that food prices are the main factor driving CPI to continue to decline. In April, food prices fell by 3.0% month-on-month, and the decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.7 percentage points.
Adequate supply is the main factor in the decline in food prices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the supply of fresh vegetables began to increase due to the warmer weather, and the price decreased by 8.0% compared with the previous month. The rate of decrease narrowed by 4.2 percentage points, affecting the CPI by about 0.23 percentage points; compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 3.7%. The decline was expanded by 3.6 percentage points.
Fresh fruit and eggs are in sufficient supply, and prices are both down 2.2% from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, the price of fresh fruit dropped by 10.5%, and the decline increased by 4.4 percentage points; the price of eggs changed from a rise of 2.1% last month to a decrease of 3.4%.
In addition, the price of livestock meat fell by 5.5%, affecting the CPI by about 0.42 percentage points. Pork and alternative meat prices have declined to varying degrees.
From the market point of view, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the "Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index" in April 2020 was 123.42, a decrease of 5.93 points from the previous month; an increase of 7.40 points year-on-year.
Hog production capacity recovery pork prices continue to decline
Pork prices have been receiving much attention and have shown a continuous downward trend recently. In April, prices continued to decline by 7.6% from the previous month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points; compared with the same period last year, pork prices rose by 96.9%, but the increase fell by 19.5 percentage points.
From the market point of view, on April 29, the price of pork (lean meat) in 36 large and medium cities was 29.92 yuan / jin, which fell below 30 yuan / jin for the first time since mid-October 2019, compared with the previous high Down 13.6%.
Affected by the decline in pork prices, alternative meats such as beef, lamb, chicken, and duck also began to loosen, with prices rising by 8.2% -20.5% year-on-year, but the increases have all declined.
Pork prices continue to fall, Dong Lijuan believes that the production capacity of live pigs is accelerating, and the continuous increase in pork supply is the main factor. Behind this is a series of policy measures to increase supply that have been promoted since the end of last year, and it is gradually showing results.
The reporter noticed that, on the one hand, the recent hog production situation has improved significantly. The data shows that the number of capable sows has rebounded for 5 consecutive months. In February, the number of new piglets in the pig farms with more than 500 pigs sold annually in the country was increasing for the first time; In total, nine batches of central frozen pork reserves were put in after the Spring Festival, which formed an effective guide to the price of fresh pork. The price of fresh pork has continued to decline since mid-February.
Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission and first-level inspector, said in March this year that under the current and future stable production of hog production, pork prices will fall.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and dean of the Institute, believes that the supply of pork will continue to increase in the future. As the policy measures for stable production and supply of pork are further implemented, and the weather is warming, the price of pork will fall further. fast.
Increased travel demand increased ticket prices by 5.6%
In terms of non-food prices, the month-on-month decline of 0.2% in April decreased by 0.2 percentage points, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.17 percentage points.
From the perspective of the prices of the seven major categories, only the price of medical care and health care increased, the prices of transportation and communications, housing, education, culture and entertainment decreased by 1.2%, 0.2% and 0.2%, respectively, and the prices of clothing, daily necessities and services, and other supplies and services all decreased by 0.1. %.
It should be noted that compared with the same period last year, the prices of transportation and communications, clothing and housing have also remained at a low level, falling by 4.9%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
However, due to changes in the international environment and epidemic situations, non-food subdivisions have different characteristics.
According to the data given by Dong Lijuan, on the one hand, due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas have dropped by 7.5%, 8.2% and 3.7%, respectively; Ticket prices rose by 5.6%. At the same time, the epidemic caused the price of medical supplies and services to rise, and the price of medical care rose by 0.2%.
Lian Ping believes that travel, medical and other aspects of the price increase due to changes in supply and demand, but only accounted for a small part of the CPI. On the whole, falling prices is a big trend.
Interpretation: CPI continues to fall, will the restart of consumption trigger a new round of price increases?
The reporter noted that since this year, the CPI has shown a downward trend. Since the CPI reached a high level in January this year, the CPI in February and March was 5.2% and 4.3% respectively, both of which have declined slightly.
The continuous decline of CPI is affected by many factors. Dong Lijuan said that on the one hand, the situation of prevention and control of the new domestic pneumonia epidemic situation has been further consolidated, and the order of production and life has been quickly restored. On the other hand, the warmer weather has led to an increase in the supply of fresh vegetables and more, and the recovery of hog production capacity has accelerated, and the increase in supply has caused prices to continue to fall. As for non-food products, fluctuations in international crude oil prices have led to a drop in the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas.
Lian Ping believes that the downward trend of CPI is expected by everyone, but the decline of 1 percentage point is still beyond expectations. Judging the trend in the second quarter, he believes that since this round of price increases is driven by pork, further declines in pork prices will also cause the CPI to continue to decline.
At the same time, because of the impact of the epidemic, the economy is facing downward pressure. At present, the resumption of production and the resumption of business and the resumption of the market have moved forward to a large extent, but there are still restrictions in certain aspects, resulting in consumer demand is not very strong, and CPI is difficult to rise significantly.
Will the expected "retaliatory consumption" come in the second quarter? Will it cause a new round of price increases?
In Lianping's view, the more reasonable statement of the so-called "revenge consumption" should be "restorative consumption". With the obvious relaxation of restrictions in various aspects, consumption recovery is gradually coming. However, deregulation is still prudent, and people are also worried. For example, tourism and the conference economy have not yet been restored. This situation is difficult to rebound rapidly and downward, but the overall trend is very clear.
"Consumption is a little slower than the recovery of industry, investment, etc., and the impact on CPI is relatively mild. It will not bring obvious pull, but continue to walk on the level of recovery." Lian Ping said.
The reporter noticed that in the 3.3% year-on-year increase in April, the price change last year had an impact of about 3.2 percentage points, and the new price increase had an impact of about 0.1 percentage point. The tail-lifting factor has a significant impact on prices.
"In the first half of the year, due to the high tailing factor of last year, the tailing factor will decline rapidly in the second half of the year, and the new price increase factor itself is very weak, so the year-on-year data may develop in the negative direction," Lianping reminded that for the second half of the year CPI, we must pay attention to the possibility of negative values.
Yan Pengcheng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's National Economic Integration Department, said on April 20 that, overall, the impact of the epidemic on consumer prices is short-term, and the foundation for stable price operations remains solid. With the further restoration of the production and living order of the whole society, the CPI increase is expected to continue to decline, and the whole year will show a trend of "before high and then low".