The policy of stabilizing foreign trade continued to show signs of effectiveness—
Export growth in April was better than market expectations
Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Gu Yang
In April, China's foreign trade export growth was better than market expectations. The export growth rate rebounded sharply by 19.6 percentage points, indicating that China's exports have shown a recovery growth. This is due to the continued efforts of a series of foreign trade stabilization policies and the accelerated pace of resumption of production and domestic production. With the positive results of the trade diversification strategy, China's imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” have also shown a bucking trend. For some time to come, China's foreign trade will still be under pressure, and we need to make every effort to stabilize the basic foreign trade market——
Thanks to the continued efforts of a series of foreign trade stabilization policies, China's foreign trade export growth in April was better than market expectations. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China ’s foreign trade imports and exports reached 2.5 trillion yuan in April, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year; of which, exports were 1.41 trillion yuan, up 8.2%; imports were 1.09 trillion yuan, down 10.2 %; Trade surplus was 318.15 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6 times.
In the first four months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 9.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, exports were 4.74 trillion yuan, down 6.4%; imports were 4.33 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; trade surplus was 415.7 billion yuan, down 30.4%.
"In April, the monitoring data showed that exports have shown a recovery growth." Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said in an interview that the current situation facing China's foreign trade is not optimistic. Preparations, but China's foreign trade has sufficient resilience and long-term development trend has not changed.
Import and export of foreign trade rebounded obviously
In the first quarter, although China's imports and exports fell by 6.4%, the decline was significantly narrowed by 3.1 percentage points from the previous two months. In April, the overall growth rate of foreign trade rebounded by 5.7 percentage points from the first quarter, while the export growth rate rebounded sharply by 19.6 percentage points.
"Benefiting from the accelerated pace of resumption of production and domestic production, as well as the early backlog of foreign trade orders delivered, since March, China's foreign trade imports and exports, especially exports, have rebounded significantly." Xu Deshun, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that overall, March Since the foreign trade has been improving year by year, the weak external demand is still the main factor affecting foreign trade, especially the epidemic of new overseas pneumonia is still spreading. The foreign trade industry must be prepared to deal with various complex and difficult situations.
Compared with the rapid recovery of exports, the growth rate of imports was lower than market expectations. In response, Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Everbright Bank ’s Financial Market Department, said that under normal circumstances, the recovery of domestic residents ’activities lags behind the industrial manufacturing sector, and the recovery of domestic demand requires a process. In the past two months, domestic industrial manufacturing inventories have increased significantly, and many companies have slowed down the pace of imports. At the same time, the overall price of commodities fell in April compared with the same period of last year, which dragged down import performance to a certain extent.
"Currently, as China's epidemic situation is effectively controlled, domestic residents' lives are gradually returning to normal, and domestic demand will enter a stage of steady expansion. From the perspective of the" May Day "holiday consumer market performance, China's domestic demand recovery prospects are more optimistic." Zhou Maohua said.
However, the momentum of the accelerated spread of overseas epidemics continues, global economic activity has contracted sharply, and the uncertainty brought to the import and export market has also increased. The difficulties and challenges facing China's foreign trade continue to increase. The data shows that China's manufacturing PMI fell 1.2 percentage points to 50.8% in April compared with March. Among them, new export orders fell sharply again, and new orders were relatively weak. This should be closely watched.
Growth along the “Belt and Road” against the trend
With the positive results of the trade diversification strategy, China's imports and exports to the countries along the "Belt and Road" have shown a trend of contrarian growth. According to statistics, in the first four months, China's total imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" route reached 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9%, accounting for 30.4% of China's total foreign trade, and its proportion increased by 1.7 percentage points.
This situation is also confirmed by the operating data of China-Europe trains. In the first four months of this year, China-Europe trains opened a total of 2,920 trains and sent 262,000 TEUs, up 24% and 27% year-on-year, respectively, and the overall heavy container rate was 98%. Among them, in the month of April, the total number of China-Europe trains, the number of outbound trains, and the number of return trains set a single monthly record.
"China and the countries along the" Belt and Road "have strong economic complementarities and broad space for foreign trade development. The joint construction of the" Belt and Road "is of great significance for promoting market diversification and stabilizing China's basic foreign trade." Li Kuiwen said.
Following the replacement of the EU to become China's largest trading partner in the first quarter, the import and export of foreign trade between China and ASEAN continued to maintain rapid growth. According to statistics, in the first four months, the total trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7%, accounting for 14.9% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, China's exports to ASEAN reached 740.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9%; imports from ASEAN reached 608.51 billion yuan, an increase of 8%; trade surplus with ASEAN was 132.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5%.
At the same time, China's imports and exports to the European Union, the United States and Japan have declined. According to statistics, in the first four months, China's total trade with the EU, the United States, and Japan was 1.23 trillion yuan, 958.46 billion yuan, and 665.68 billion yuan, down 6.5%, 12.8%, and 2.1%, respectively.
Significant growth in new formats
"In the past April, the 1421 cross-border e-commerce parcels sold from the Nanjing (Longtan) Comprehensive Protection Zone were 1.2 times more than in March, and the average daily inspection was nearly 500 tickets." Jinling Customs, a subsidiary of Nanjing Customs Kang Zheng, deputy director of Jiangbei Office, said.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, foreign trade in the traditional way has experienced a significant drop, but cross-border e-commerce and other new formats have grown significantly, becoming one of the "weapon" for stabilizing foreign trade. According to statistics, the import and export trade completed through the customs cross-border e-commerce management platform in the first quarter of this year increased by 34.7%.
On May 6, the State Council announced a list of new cities that set up comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zones, with 46 cities including Hebei Xiong'an New District, Shanxi Datong and Inner Mongolia Manzhouli shortlisted. So far, the number of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test zones after five enlarging has reached 105, covering 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government.
"Accelerating the development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce will help alleviate the current pressure on foreign trade companies, on the other hand, it can better meet domestic consumer demand and promote consumption expansion and quality improvement." Xu Deshun said.
The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the stabilization of foreign trade, and have held many meetings to deploy and stabilize the foreign trade from the central level. They have issued a series of policy measures such as financial support, tax reductions, transformation and development of processing trade, and online "Canton Fair". Maintain the stability of the supply chain of the global industrial chain and help foreign trade enterprises overcome difficulties.
Experts said that in the future, China's foreign trade will still be under pressure, but China's foreign trade has grown up from the market storm and has strong resilience and potential. Coupled with the country's package of foreign trade policies, "combined boxing" continues to exert strength. On the basis of stabilizing the basic foreign trade, the pace of transformation and upgrading of the entire industry is expected to continue to accelerate.