Small and long holiday property market "weak market rebound" Which cities are recovering fast?
After the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has stabilized, with the delayed demand entering the market, the property market has now picked up. Institutional data show that this year's "May 1" small holiday, Beijing's new house turnover nearly doubled year-on-year, Nanjing's new house turnover doubled year-on-year, but there are also Dalian, Huizhou and other cities where new house turnover fell more than half year-on-year. The differentiation is obvious.
This year's "May Day" small holiday is the longest "May Day" holiday since 2008. Because of the epidemic prevention and the lack of food sharing in the tourism industry, housing companies have come up with a lot of colorful promotional catalytic transactions.
Online, following the influence of online celebrities and stars, the sales of real estate companies have also moved from the background to the live broadcast room. The offline salesperson is "too busy to deal with", from receiving 3-5 groups of customers a day to more than a dozen groups, hesitating to shout his voice. So, how many points will the sales office face for the first "big test" in the property market since the business after the epidemic?
According to statistics from institutions, if the lagging effect of online signing is not taken into account, the turnover of new houses in Beijing during the May 1st period nearly doubled year-on-year, and the turnover of new houses in Nanjing doubled year-on-year. The degree of market recovery is clearly differentiated. It is worth noting that even though individual regions rose sharply year-on-year, in the industry's view, it is only a "weak market rebound".
Beijing, Nanjing and other new house sales increased
After the epidemic has stabilized, with the delayed demand entering the market, the property market has now picked up.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Property Search Data Research Center, the hottest cities in the property market during the “May Day” holiday were Beijing and Nanjing. The sales of new houses increased year-on-year and month-on-month, both of which increased year-on-year. The number of transactions in Nanjing's new homes has doubled year-on-year, nearly doubling in one holiday. At the same time, the turnover of new houses in Shanghai, Suzhou and Jinan during the “May Day” holiday was also significantly better than last year, up 146.6%, 89.3% and 211.1% year-on-year respectively.
In this regard, Zhuge housing analysts believe that this year's "May Day" holiday new house transaction level has shown a marked warming situation compared to last year. From the perspective of the overall real estate market environment, the current financial policies are slightly loose, mortgage interest rates are at a low level, market expectations are optimistic, and buyers are highly motivated to enter the market.
In addition, during the "May Day" period, the overseas epidemic situation is at its peak, and the domestic epidemic situation is still in the stage of prevention and control. Many home buyers give up overseas travel opportunities and instead move around the city to have more time to look at the house.
However, not all cities are showing uptrends. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Finding House Data Research Center, the transactions of new houses in Wuhan and Dalian have declined year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, mainly because Wuhan is a severely affected area. Although it has been “lifted”, the property market recovery will take time to digest. The turnover of new houses in Wuhan fell by 6.6% year-on-year during the "1" holiday; Dalian's property market was slightly weak this year, and the "May 1" holiday was no exception. The turnover of new houses fell by 63.6% year-on-year.
E-Research Institute China 100 cities inventory report related data also shows that during the "May Day" there are some cities that have fallen significantly, such as Huizhou's transaction volume fell by 59% in the first four days.
Although the May 1st property market recovery has become a consensus in the industry, market differentiation is also obvious. According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, the property market is generally picking up, and the market is better than expected. Among them, some cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta performed well, and some cities came out of the market trough and began to pick up. Especially in May, the active promotion of housing companies around the country also objectively drove the rebound in sales data. However, there are still many cities with a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, indicating that many cities still face resistance.
The average daily turnover of new houses in Shenzhen, Chengdu and other places is lower than the same period last year
Although the average daily transaction volume of newly built commercial housing rose during the “May Day” period in many cities year-on-year and continued to increase, the market showed no signs of rising from a quarter-on-quarter perspective.
According to the statistics of Jiancheng Shengye, during the May 1st long holiday period in 2020, the average daily transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in 15 cities including Beijing, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Suzhou, and Dalian was 1134 units. It is equivalent to 40% of the average daily level of newly built commercial housing in April, but the daily average volume of newly built commercial housing increased by 13.1% compared with the May 1st holiday in May (May 1-May 4).
According to industry insiders, the state-managed provident fund policy on April 15, 2019 was introduced, and the property market has been lowered since Xiaoyang Chun. In addition, a total of 4 days of holiday on May 1st in 2019 is the first time in the past ten years that it has been extended to 4 days. Because of the extended holiday period, many home buyers choose to travel, suspend viewing, and the slowdown of the update of some city trading systems. The transaction volume, which led to the May 1st transaction volume in 2019 became the lowest in the past six years. By 2020, the "May Day" holiday will be extended by another day, but the average daily transaction volume of newly built commercial housing will increase instead of falling. In this regard, Jiancheng Shengye analysis said that on the one hand, because of the epidemic, the demand for travel was not as good as in previous years, which promoted market transactions. On the other hand, it also showed that the property market in "May Day" is hot this year.
However, Yuan Chengjian, the co-founder of Jiancheng Shengye, also analyzed that the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in the majority of cities in the May Day holiday in 2020 was significantly lower than that in the same period in previous years except 2019, indicating that the current The increase in trading volume is a "weak market rebound".
Taking Nanjing as an example, the average daily turnover of newly built commercial housing during the “May Day” period in 2010 was 168, an increase of 164.9% from the average of 64 units during the “May Day” period last year, but a decrease of more than 50% from 2016 and 2018. Of cities are Suzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao, and Jinan. The average daily transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in Dalian and Putian during the "May Day" fell by more than 50% year-on-year, more than 70% from the previous few years.
Resumption of work in various places and backlog of demand to enter the market, the market will continue to recover in May
Regarding the market trend in May, Yuan Chengjian believes that the current recovery situation will continue, and Beijing, Shanghai and core cities will recover more quickly, but most cities are still relatively weak, and it is expected to return to normal under good conditions. Level.
Yan Yuejin also said that the pace of resumption of work in various regions in May will be further accelerated, which will objectively drive sales. In particular, the financial loan policy will be further relaxed, and it is expected that the potential house purchase demand will be actively released. Therefore, there will still be a possibility of rebound in subsequent market transactions. "Of course, due to the drag on sales data from February to March this year, it is expected that in the first half of this year, sales data in many cities will still decline year-on-year. If it turns positive, it will depend on the subsequent policy stimulus."
Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, predicted that a small spring similar to the beginning of 2019 will appear in May-June. He said that from the perspective of the May 1st long holiday market, the real estate market under the epidemic is recovering quickly, because the delayed demand for the epidemic began to promote transactions after entering the market. However, under the pressure of the policy of "no housing, no speculation", the market is not expected to fluctuate significantly.
Judging from the buyers ’willingness to buy a home, according to the online survey conducted by the Middle Index Institute during the“ May Day ”, more than 40% of the respondents believe that the first or the shortest purchase of the first house is needed most of the time. It will be the largest home buyer group in the coming year. However, this part of the group will be extremely sensitive to the total price due to the reduction in income.
To this end, the Central Index Research Institute believes that the current innovation of payment methods, ease the pressure on house purchases, and the creation of cost-effective products are critical to gain the favor of customers who just need them in the future.
Beijing News reporter Yuan Xiuli