Hundreds of automobile manufacturers and parts companies in more than 20 countries around the world have shut down and stopped production--

Under the epidemic, the pressure on the global automotive industry chain has increased

  Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Yang Zhongyang

  The new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought a lot of uncertainty, making the global automotive industry supply chain no longer stable, and the import and export are under pressure. As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is further consolidated, the resumption of domestic auto and parts production is gradually approaching or reaching normal levels, and the pressure on the supply chain of the automotive industry chain is also alleviating. Experts suggest that, while maintaining the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, the Chinese automobile industry must also master the core technology to form a competitive advantage in the upstream and downstream industrial chains.

  Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd. recently announced that Renault intends to transfer its 50% stake in Dongfeng Renault to Dongfeng Motor Group, and Dongfeng Renault will stop Renault brand-related business activities.

  Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the already sluggish automobile industry is even worse. From vehicle manufacturers to parts manufacturers and dealers, the global automotive industry chain is under tremendous pressure.

Global industry chain under pressure

  Automobile production involves tens of thousands of parts and components. Not only is the industry chain long, but also the degree of globalization is high. It is difficult to leave the support of the global industry chain.

  "Initially affected by the epidemic, some Chinese auto parts companies stopped production, impacting the global automotive industry chain." Li Yang, deputy director of the Industrial Investment Research Office of the CCID Think Tank Planning Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

  From the perspective of the global automotive industry chain, the companies that were previously heavily affected by the epidemic mainly include two types. One type is a multinational vehicle manufacturer that has a large dependence on Chinese parts imports, and the other type is a multinational parts supplier that has opened many factories in China.

  "As the domestic epidemic situation is basically controlled, and the epidemic situation in foreign countries is accelerating, this situation has reversed." Li Yang said: "Recently, many important parts manufacturers in Europe and the United States have stopped work, and the domestic related companies are facing the risk of supply cuts.

  Cai Ronghua, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that although most parts can be purchased domestically, there are still a few parts that need to be imported.

  "Imported parts inventory of auto companies generally ranges from 1 week to 2 weeks, but their Tier 1 suppliers and each upstream link will have a certain inventory reserve, plus transportation inventory, can basically guarantee car companies 1 month to 2 months "The safe production of vehicles." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, told reporters: "If the suppliers stop production for a long time, it will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the domestic automobile market."

  Also of concern with the risk of supply cuts for imported components is the obstruction of exports by domestic companies. Due to the spread of foreign epidemics, the product delivery time is facing greater uncertainty.

  "The situation in February was that overseas customers urged us to deliver, and since March it has become our urging customers to receive goods." A parts supplier reported to reporters: "Now we have fully resumed production and production, but overseas customers are mostly in The state of home office or suspension of work. The export goods arrive at the terminal but no one can pick them up, and the risk of detention is increased. "

  According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 100 automobile manufacturers and parts companies in more than 20 countries in the world have stopped production. Many uncertainties brought by the epidemic have made the global automotive industry supply chain no longer stable, and import and export pressures are two-way.

What is the risk of substitution

  After some OEMs in South Korea and Japan stopped production, there are reports that Hyundai Harness supplier Yojin Denso and Honda brake pedal supplier Weifu Technology have said that they will transfer some of their production capacity in China to South Korea, Southeast Asia and the Philippines. Factory. A report pointed out that it is necessary to pay close attention to the substitution and loosening risks of China's auto industry supply chain.

  Is this "de-Chinese" feasible?

  It is understood that there are currently more than 100,000 auto parts companies in China, producing more than 80% of auto parts worldwide. Experts said that it took China three or four decades to build a complete automotive industry chain, and it was only completed in the context of rapid market growth. Multinational auto companies can of course withdraw their production in the US, Japan and Europe, but the cost will remain high; moving to Southeast Asia and other countries, it is difficult to establish an industrial chain in the short term.

  Taking the Tesla Shanghai plant as an example, it is estimated that compared with the US supply chain, the input of raw materials and components of the domestic Model 3 is expected to save 10% to 20%, plus manufacturing costs and labor costs are greatly reduced to achieve parts After full localization, the total production cost of Model 3 will fall by 20% to 28%.

  Sun Xiaohong, Secretary General of the Automotive Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, said that as an important part of the world's automotive industry chain, China's status is still irreplaceable. From a micro perspective, companies have long negotiating cycles and large investments to replace single component suppliers. From a macro perspective, key components are in a stable position in the industry chain with low replaceability.

  "Vehicle manufacturers need to change suppliers for a long time in advance, especially the key parts have technical thresholds, and there is basically no feasibility in less than a year and a half." Cui Dongshu believes that as long as China's position as the world's largest automobile consumer market remains unchanged, The state of the global automotive supply chain focusing on China will not change.

  As the world's largest new car consumer market, China not only has a complete automotive industry chain, but also has become the most innovative region in the global automobile industry. The importance and attractiveness of the global automotive industry chain continue to increase.

  "Under the impact of the epidemic, we must have confidence and believe that there will be a longer future after the epidemic." BMW Group Chairman Qi Puze told reporters that the BMW Group has completed the new upgrade of the three major R & D centers in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenyang. Building the largest R & D network outside of Germany in China, "China, as an important market and innovation center for the BMW Group to promote future travel, will undertake more work."

Enhancing competitiveness is the key

  In response to the impact of the global epidemic on the Chinese automotive industry, Liu Changyu, a second-level inspector of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that China is paying close attention to the current problems in the automotive supply chain and guiding domestic auto companies to strengthen the production and supply monitoring of overseas suppliers. Large orders and inventory, formulate alternative plans, and rationally arrange production. At the same time, it guarantees smooth import channels for automobile core components, raw materials and R & D, production and testing equipment.

  As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is further consolidated, the resumption of domestic auto and parts production is gradually approaching or reaching normal levels, and the pressure on the supply chain of the automotive industry chain is also easing. At the same time, in order to encourage and stimulate automobile consumption, since February this year, central and local governments at all levels have stepped up policies to promote automobile consumption, and a number of policies to promote automobile consumption have been issued continuously.

  According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic automobile production and sales in the first quarter were 3.474 million and 3.672 million, respectively, down 45.2% and 42.4% year-on-year. Among them, in March this year, automobile production and sales exceeded 1.4 million units, reaching 1.422 million units and 1.43 million units respectively, up 4 times and 3.6 times sequentially.

  Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that as the company's production and operation gradually resumed, the overall production and sales in March were higher than previously expected. According to the latest statistics on the resumption and resumption of production of 23 enterprise groups controlled by the China Automobile Association, the vehicle production base is fully reinstated, the return rate of employees is 86%, and the resumption of production has reached 75% of the average level last year. The resumption of production of these leading enterprises will effectively drive the supply chain to "follow up".

  "At present, Geely's domestic supply chain risks are basically effectively controlled, and production capacity is steadily climbing. We do not adjust the 1.41 million sales target set at the beginning of the year, and we are still full of confidence for the annual target." Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group Say. But he also mentioned that the outbreak also exposed many risks in the supply chain. For example, the raw materials of a few parts and components cannot be produced locally, and they need to be imported from Europe, America, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia.

  Although Chinese auto parts contribute 80% of the global market, the upstream and downstream have been deeply embedded in the global supply chain, but most of the Chinese parts focus on the low-end field, and the added value is not high. High-end components such as engines and gearboxes still rely heavily on imports.

  "How can China's auto industry achieve better localization of some key parts and components, while maintaining the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, master the true core technology, and form the competitive advantage of the upstream and downstream industrial chains. The problem that must be solved to move towards a powerful automobile country. "Li Shufu said.

  "At present, the development of the Chinese brand auto parts industry is still lagging behind the whole vehicle, mainly due to the lack of key core technologies and foreign brands occupying the core parts product market." Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, suggested that companies should seize the new one The opportunities brought by the round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, around the future development trends and the reconstruction of the industrial chain, accelerate the supply chain of "electrified, intelligent, networked" technology reserves, breakthroughs in engineering technology, industrialization promotion and scale Application to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese automobile manufacturing in the global industrial chain.

  Yang Zhongyang