BOJ expects GDP to fall significantly this year

BOJ expects GDP to fall significantly this year 15:22 April 27

At the monetary policy meeting on the 27th, the BOJ showed a severe outlook that GDP for the current fiscal year will fall substantially negative. With the spread of the new coronavirus infection, exports, production, and consumption have declined across the board, indicating that the economy is "intensifying."

The latest outlook for the economy and prices announced by the BOJ on the 27th suggests that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the current fiscal year will fall in the range of -3% to -5%.

In order to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus infection, measures such as movement restrictions and suspension of sales and production activities have been taken inside and outside Japan, and economic activities will be severely constrained until they converge.

It is expected that it will fall to the same level as the minus 3.4% in fiscal 2008, which was affected by the Lehman shock, or a further decline.

Regarding the outlook, the Bank of Japan will increase its exports and domestic demand in the next fiscal year and FY2021 with the assumption that the influence of the spread of infection will soften globally in the latter half of the year, and GDP will increase from 2.8% to + 2.8%. It has recovered to the range of 3.9%, and it will be in the range of plus 0.8% to plus 1.6% in the next fiscal year and 2022.

However, the outlook for the Bank of Japan is extremely uncertain, and development of effective vaccines against viruses cannot be foreseen at this point in time. It is uncertain.

On the other hand, with regard to prices, the outlook for the consumer price index excluding fresh foods this year is in the range of minus 0.3% to minus 0.7%.

It is expected that it will be within the range of 0% to 0.7% in the next fiscal year and 2021 and from 0.4% to 1% in the next fiscal year and 2022, which will not reach the inflation rate of 2% a year set by the Bank of Japan. Has become.