This morning (April 20), the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2020-2029)", which is the seventh consecutive year that China has announced to the world. The supply and demand situation of China's major agricultural products market in the next 10 years Forecast and outlook.

In the next ten years, the supply of staple food will be greatly improved

　　The report believes that, despite the sudden impact of the new outbreak of new pneumonia in the first quarter of this year, our food production capacity has continued to grow steadily this year. In the next ten years, China's staple food supply capacity will continue to increase substantially.

　　The report analyzes that in 2020, China's agricultural planting structure will continue to be optimized, and rice and wheat will continue to adjust the variety structure, and the corn production capacity in the advantageous producing areas will be consolidated and improved. The sown area of ​​the three staple foods of rice, wheat and corn is nearly 1.42 billion mu. It is expected that the supply of major grain varieties will be sufficient in 2020, and the production volume will reach a relatively high level.

Xu Shiwei, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: like three varieties of rice, wheat, and corn, rice output can reach 209 million tons, wheat can reach 134 million tons, and corn can reach 266 million tons. It's still growing.

　　Analysis of the report: In the next 10 years, China's agricultural transformation and upgrading will be significantly accelerated, high-quality agricultural development will achieve significant results, and the level of agricultural modernization will increase steadily. The capacity to increase production and supply of major agricultural products such as grain has been greatly improved.

　　Due to the continuous increase in yield, it is expected that by 2029, the total output of rice will be stable at more than 200 million tons; the total output of wheat will reach about 135 million tons. The supply of staple food is safe, and part of the import of grain is mainly the demand for varieties in the market.

Xu Shiwei, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: The import of rice (2019) is only 2.35 million tons, and the import of wheat is only more than 3.5 million tons. Taken together, they account for 2.1% of the total (domestic) supply, so its imports are quite small.

　　The report analyzes that in the next ten years, due to the persistent price gap between domestic and foreign rice, imports will continue to grow. The import of rice in 2029 is expected to increase from 2.37 million tons to 4.45 million tons. Due to the production and demand gap of domestic special wheat, it is expected to increase from 3.9 million tons in 2020 to 5.83 million tons in 2029.

In the next ten years, pork supply and demand will shift from tight to balanced

　　Last year, a large area of ​​China was affected by the African swine fever epidemic, which led to a decline in pig production capacity and high pork prices across the country. The China Agricultural Outlook Report predicts that starting this year, domestic pork supply and demand will move from tight to a basic balance.

　　The report analyzes that in the first quarter of this year, the country's live pig production is in the recovery stage. Although the hog inventory and the number of capable sows have increased compared with the previous quarter, the hog inventory to the supply of commercial pigs takes about 5 months. Therefore, in the second quarter, the supply of hogs is still lower than the same period last year. In addition, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, it is expected that the pork consumption demand will decline to some extent in the first half of the year.

Zhu Zengyong, associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: By the third quarter of this year, the entire supply of commercial pigs will be recovering. The overall supply and demand situation will further improve, and it is expected that by the fourth quarter our entire hog and pork prices are expected to fall from a high level.

　　Analysis of the report: After 2022, China's live pig production capacity is showing a steady growth trend, and it is expected that pork production will reach 59.72 million tons in 2029. At present, China's per capita pork consumption is around 32 kg. It is estimated that by 2029, the per capita pork consumption will be around 42 kg.

Zhu Zengyong, associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: In the future, our entire pork import demand will gradually slow down. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of our entire pig (meat) is maintained at above 95%. It is expected that by 2029, the self-sufficiency rate of our pig (meat) will increase from the current 95% to 98%.

　　The report analyzes that in 2020, it is expected that the domestic pork production and demand gap will expand, and the import volume is expected to increase by 32.7% over 2019, reaching about 2.8 million tons. In the next ten years, import demand will continue to decline as China's pork production grows. It is expected that by 2029, pork imports will fall to about 1.2 million tons.

The pattern of imports of soybeans will remain unchanged in the next decade

　　Soybeans are the main source of edible oil and feed ingredients. "China Agricultural Outlook Report" predicts that China's total soybean consumption will continue to grow this year. In the next ten years, driven by domestic market demand, the pattern of soybeans relying on large imports will remain basically unchanged.

　　The report analyzes that this year, driven by the implementation of China's new round of soybean revitalization plan and market demand, it is expected that soybean planting area will continue to expand and production will increase accordingly.

Xu Shiwei, Director of the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: We expect soybeans (2019) to increase by at least 2 million mu on the basis of the planted area of ​​140 million mu (2020). Soybean output is about 3% higher than last year (18.1 million tons).

　　The report analyzes that in the next ten years, due to the large number of people in China, the population will continue to grow and the demand for soybeans will continue to increase. At the same time, soybean is the main source of edible oil and feed raw materials, and the development of animal husbandry has also driven the increase in demand. It is expected that the pattern of soybeans' long-term dependence on imports will not change, but the growth rate will slow down.

Xu Shiwei, Director of the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: Imported 88.59 million tons in 2019, with a trade dependence of 83%. In other words, 83% of our country's total consumption needs to be imported from abroad. Our analysis shows that in the next 10 years, soybean imports will increase at a rate of 0.8% per year, and the growth will be relatively slow. By 2029, soybean imports will be at a level of 99.52 million tons.