(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: "six stability" and then "six guarantees" China's economy strengthens the bottom line thinking
China News Agency, Beijing, April 20 (Reporter Wang Enbo) To ensure the employment of residents, the basic people's livelihood, the market body, the security of food and energy, the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, and the operation of the grassroots. Following the "six stability", the CPC Central Committee Politburo meeting recently proposed the "six guarantees" for the first time. What is the significance of this new expression?
The first quarter of this year was extremely unusual. The sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic had an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. From the meeting's judgment on the current economic situation, it is not difficult to see the current challenge.
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, pointed out that under the background of huge uncertainties in future economic shocks, targeting the "six guarantees" does not mean that the work pressure is reduced, nor is it a manifestation of lowering the target. The focus is on perseverance Bottom line thinking and bottom line management.
The above ideas can be seen in the intersection of "six stability" and "six guarantees" of employment.
During the epidemic, many industries were hit, which caused a series of difficulties in employment. Although the 5.9% unemployment rate in China ’s urban survey in March fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, Fu Linghui, deputy director of the National Bureau of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, bluntly stated that the current employment pressure is still high.
He introduced that in March, the unemployment rate in China ’s urban surveys was significantly higher than that in the same period of last year, and the size of employees fell by more than 6% compared with January, and about 18.3% of employees were not working. The employment pressure of key groups such as migrant workers and university graduates is relatively high, and the unemployment rate of the non-agricultural household registration population and 20-24 year old college graduates and above nationwide is significantly higher than the national average.
"Once the public health crisis leads to large-scale unemployment, it will not only be reflected as an economic crisis, but also as a social crisis." Liu Yuanchun emphasized that it is necessary to make job security and job security a policy goal at present, and must fully realize The severity of the task.
A solid economic foundation is the "chassis" of employment. In the face of impact, only by protecting residents, businesses, and governments from lasting harm can we maximize the ability to preserve economic regeneration. This is also the purpose of the "six guarantees".
As Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said, residents ’employment and basic livelihood issues must be protected before income can be stabilized, and there is room for follow-up consumption replenishment; companies do not leave the market due to bankruptcy due to the short-term impact of the epidemic, based on a stable industrial chain In the future, there will be no new obstacles to restoring supply in the future; under the circumstances of the epidemic bringing about a reduction in fiscal revenue, only the grassroots government can operate effectively to effectively solve the specific problems in resuming production and expanding domestic demand, and dredge economic reimbursement. Capillaries.
In addition, the "six guarantees" also mentioned food and energy security. Against the background of the global spread of the epidemic, stabilizing agricultural production to ensure food security and expanding strategic reserves to ensure energy security is also an important part of strengthening the bottom line thinking and maintaining economic regeneration capacity.
After the "six stability", there is the "six guarantees". How should the relevant goals and tasks be achieved? In this regard, the Politburo meeting gave an answer that combines strengths and weaknesses.
On the one hand, it is necessary to hedge the epidemic situation with greater macro-policy efforts. In terms of fiscal policy, the meeting clearly mentioned raising the deficit rate, issuing special anti-epidemic government bonds, and increasing local government special bonds, etc .; monetary policy proposed the use of means such as RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and refinancing to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and guide the loan market Interest rates are going down.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters that the "six guarantees" are the basis for the steady operation of the economy and society under the normal epidemic prevention and control, and the prerequisite guarantee for the realization of the "six stability". Therefore, the next stage of macro-policy should make greater efforts to implement counter-cyclical adjustment, improve the accuracy and effectiveness of fiscal policy, and effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy while maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
On the other hand, we must take the opportunity to promote reform, be good at using reform to solve problems in development, and improve the market-oriented allocation of factors and institutional mechanisms.
Not long ago, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued a document proposing to build a more complete system of market-based allocation of factors. Zhu Jianfang said that under the significant negative impact of the epidemic on the economy, both a counter-cyclical macro hedging policy is needed to stabilize the total demand, and further deepening of the market reform of factors is necessary to improve the supply structure and increase the potential level of economic growth and all factors. Productivity, which is also in line with the background of China's economic transformation and upgrading. (Finish)