In the first three months of the year, GDP decreased year-on-year, and the main economic indicators showed a rebound in March
How to see the economic data in the first quarter (new economic position)
Drawing: Bian Jihong (issued by Xinhua News Agency)
● The fundamentals of China ’s long-term economic growth have not changed: the “wind vane” is improving, and the recovery is expected to continue; the “rice bag” is sufficient, and there is food in hand; the adaptability is strong, the industrial system is complete and resilient; the fundamentals remain unchanged , China's economic vitality is full of potential
● The main economic indicators improved significantly in March, which was hard-won. Thanks to the efforts of the whole body, we coordinated the advancement of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. ; Turn crises into opportunities to show ability, enterprises break through to fight for wisdom;
On April 17, at the press conference of the State Council Office, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that after preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 206.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% at comparable prices. "In the first quarter, the main economic indicators fell significantly, but in March the main economic indicators showed a rebound and the decline narrowed significantly. Despite the severe impact of the epidemic, the basic livelihood of 1.4 billion people was well protected, the overall economic and social stability was stabilized, and the epidemic was promoted as a whole Prevention and control and economic and social development have achieved remarkable results. "Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
Full view
China has managed to control the epidemic relatively well and has to pay some short-term economic costs; the global economic and trade has fallen sharply, making it difficult for China to survive alone
GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, what do you think?
The sudden new pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, the whole country is united and in concert, taking the most comprehensive, thorough and strictest prevention and control measures, resolutely curbing the spread of the epidemic, and effectively protecting the lives and health of the people. health.
"The Party Central Committee insists on putting the people's lives and health in the first place. In a relatively short period of time, it has controlled the epidemic better, reduced millions of infections, and saved a lot of people's lives. Of course, we also have to pay some short-term economic costs. "Mao Shengyong said," This year's economic growth cannot be simply compared with conventional years. "
Looking at the economic data in a comprehensive manner, it should also be noted that the global economic and trade has fallen sharply, making it difficult for China to be alone. At present, the epidemic has spread in more than 200 countries and regions, and global cross-border investment, trade in goods, and personnel exchanges have decreased significantly.
Recently, international institutions have lowered their economic growth expectations for this year. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade will plummet by 13% to 32% this year, and the global economic growth rate will drop by at least 2.5%. The International Monetary Fund has made the largest growth in global economic growth this year. The downward adjustment of the global economy is expected to shrink by 3% this year, which is the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, while China's economic growth rate is 1.2%, which is the few positive growth in the world's major economies.
Dialectical look
As the epidemic prevention and control situation is further consolidated, the resumption of production and production is gradually approaching or reaching normal levels, and the main economic indicators in March have improved significantly
Dialectically, despite the negative economic growth in the first quarter, as the epidemic prevention and control situation is further consolidated, the resumption of production and production is gradually approaching or reaching normal levels, and the main economic indicators improved significantly in March.
Spring ploughing was successful. In the first quarter, the added value of agriculture (planting industry) increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the overall growth of winter wheat was better than that of the previous year and normal years. The growth rate of poultry eggs and milk output exceeds 4%, and the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry is 18.13 million tons.
Industrial production is recovering quickly. In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size fell by 8.4% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in March decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a sharp decrease of 12.4 percentage points from January to February. The output level of enterprises above designated size basically recovered to the level of the same period last year. Among the 41 industrial industries, 90% of the industries added value more quickly than that in January-February, and 40% of the industries increased year-on-year; from the statistics of more than 600 major industrial products, about 40% of the industrial products output increase.
Resumption of work accelerates employment stability. In the first quarter, 2.29 million people were employed in cities and towns across the country. In March, the national unemployment rate for urban surveys was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from February; the unemployment rate for the 25-59-year-old population survey was 5.4%, lower than the national urban survey unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points, and a decrease of 0.2 Percentage points. "Despite the severe impact of the epidemic, there have been no large-scale layoffs across the country, and the employment situation is generally stable," Mao Shengyong said.
Sufficient supply and stable prices. In March, the CPI rose 4.3% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the first-quarter CPI rose by 4.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from January to February. "The rise in consumer prices has fallen, indicating that food supply is relatively abundant and social logistics is relatively smooth." Mao Shengyong said.
In the long run
The fundamentals of China ’s long-term economic growth have not changed. The economy in the second quarter is expected to be significantly better than the first quarter. If the global epidemic situation is well controlled, the second half will be better than the first half
"The epidemic is a sudden public health event. Its impact on the economy is short-term and generally controllable. The fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed." Mao Shengyong judged.
——The “wind vane” is improving, and the upward trend is expected to continue.
Electricity consumption and railway freight volume have always been regarded as economic indicators and barometers. In March, the decline in electricity consumption of the whole society was significantly narrower than that in February, and the power generation of the whole society maintained a positive growth in early April; in March, the national railway cargo delivery volume reached 346 million tons, which was the same as last year and increased by 4.5 from February %. In the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics invested more than RMB 50 million in 11477 projects, an increase of 144 over the same period of the previous year, and sales of excavators hit a record high in March.
"From the perspective of current research and understanding, a series of policies issued in the early stage, including policies and measures to help enterprises overcome difficulties and help enterprises resume work and production, are continuing to show results." Mao Shengyong said, as the work resumed and accelerated More vigorous policies are constantly being introduced, and the economy is expected to be significantly better in the second quarter than in the first quarter. "If the global epidemic situation is better controlled, the second half of the year should be better than the first half."
——There are enough "rice bags", and there is food in my hands.
Affected by the epidemic, the food issue has recently attracted attention at home and abroad. "Chinese people hold rice bowls firmly in their hands, there is no problem!" Mao Shengyong said that in the past five years, China's grain output has been above 1.3 trillion catties, and grain output in 2019 reached a record high, and China's grain self-sufficiency rate Over 95%, the inventory is abundant. "In the first quarter, grain prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year and remained generally stable. The prices in some key epidemic prevention and control areas, including Wuhan, did not show major fluctuations, indicating that China's grain supply capacity is strong and the market supply and demand relationship is generally stable."
——Strong adaptability, complete and resilient industrial system.
110 million! In one month, China's mask production capacity has increased by more than 4 times.
500,000 pieces! In about a month, the daily output of China's protective clothing increased by about 27 times.
China's industrial production capacity is strong, supporting facilities also have a strong advantage, and repair and adaptability are both strong. In the first quarter, in the high-tech manufacturing industry, investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing increased by 3.2%. In the high-tech service industry, investment in e-commerce services increased by 39.6%, investment in professional technical services increased by 36.7%, and investment in transformation services of scientific and technological achievements increased by 17.4%. Investment in anti-epidemic related industries such as the manufacturing of biopharmaceutical products has maintained growth, and the construction of key epidemic prevention projects has advanced rapidly. These investments not only form an effective supply to meet the demand for consumption upgrades, but can also further improve the industrial structure.
"The industrial system has not been affected, and the production capacity has not been affected. The social production system is sound, the production capacity is sufficient, and the economic recovery of production capacity can be gradually released." Mao Shengyong said.
——The fundamentals remain unchanged, and China's economic vitality is full of potential.
Mao Shengyong said that the basic characteristics of China ’s large market, rapid growth, ample potential, and sufficient resilience will not change. From the perspective of factor support, the industrial foundation is relatively good, the supporting capacity is relatively strong, the labor force is relatively abundant, and human capital is constantly accumulating. These can effectively support the medium- and long-term economic growth. At the same time, continuous deepening of reform and opening up and promotion of innovation can continuously stimulate the endogenous power, potential and vitality of the economy.
Grasp with both hands
Promote the prevention and control of the epidemic situation and economic and social development as a whole, insist that the prevention and control of the epidemic situation is not loose, and the economic development is unshakable
The major economic indicators improved significantly in March, which was hard-earned. Thanks to the unremitting efforts, we coordinated the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
——Being proactive in preventing risks, macro-control is brilliant.
Since the beginning of this year, the tax cuts and fee reductions have been increased step by step. In addition to last year ’s policy tailwinds, it is expected that the entire year will reduce the burden on enterprises by 1.6 trillion yuan. 5881 million companies benefited from a special refinancing of 300 billion yuan. After the existing 500 billion yuan refinancing rebate amount is used up, another small and medium-sized bank refinancing refinancing amount will be 1 trillion yuan; as of March 24 On the day, 1.46 million enterprises enjoyed 22.2 billion yuan in stable returns ... A series of high-gold content, highly targeted policies and measures were quickly introduced, allowing the real economy to relieve the burden and rescue the difficulties.
——The ability to turn crises into opportunities and enterprises to break through and fight for wisdom.
"Cloud" interaction, "house economy" is in full swing; striving to be "Internet celebrity", live broadcast with goods to help counterattack sales; to break down the "wall", corporate orders, employees can share ... These new economic motivators are all walks of life The Chinese wisdom and Chinese forces that broke out in times and difficulties were overcome.
"Although the epidemic is serious and the prevention and control measures are normal, the industry has not been greatly affected, especially the new kinetic energy represented by new industries, new products and new business models has also grown against the trend." Mao Shengyong said.
New industries are booming. In March, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.9%, a significant increase of more than 20 percentage points from January to February. In the first quarter, the added value of the information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 13.2%, driving GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points.
The new format has grown rapidly. The new formats related to the Internet are active, and e-commerce, online learning, and remote consultations have developed rapidly. In March, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.9%, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the same period last year.
The growth of new products continues unabated. In the first quarter, the output of vending machines, ticket vending machines, electronic components, integrated circuits, and urban rail vehicles increased by 35.3%, 16.2%, 16.0%, and 13.1%, respectively.
——Poverty alleviation is not relaxed, and a comprehensive well-off society has quality.
Despite the outbreak of the epidemic, it did not relax to ensure the completion of the decisive battle and the goal of overcoming poverty. In the first quarter, 139.6 billion yuan of central poverty alleviation funds have been released, and more than 260,000 poverty alleviation projects in 22 provinces in the central and western regions have started construction. From the perspective of income, some provinces with a relatively large number of poor people, such as Sichuan, Guangxi, Tibet, Guizhou, and Qinghai, the per capita disposable income of residents in the first quarter increased by 5.3%, 4.6%, 9.5%, 4.8%, and 3.1% respectively. Higher than the national level. "The battle against poverty has won, the overall well-off society will be more quality, more historically tested, and more satisfying to the people." Mao Shengyong said.
Lu Yanan