China News Service, Washington, April 14 (Reporter Shahanting) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new issue of the "World Economic Outlook Report" on the 14th. It is expected that the global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020 due to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. If the epidemic subsides in the second half of this year, the global economy will achieve 5.8% growth in 2021.
According to the report, affected by the epidemic, many countries have adopted a series of measures such as isolation and blockade to control the spread of the epidemic. These measures are having a serious impact on the economy. Therefore, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3% in 2020, and the degree of recession exceeds that of the financial crisis from 2008 to 2009. The baseline scenario assumes that the epidemic will subside in the second half of this year, the prevention and control measures can be phased out, and countries implement policy support to help restore the economy. The global economy is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2021. The IMF predicts that the epidemic will cause a cumulative loss of approximately US $ 9 trillion in global GDP in 2020 and 2021.
According to the report, the outbreak will cause advanced economies as well as emerging markets and developing economies to fall into recession at the same time. This is the first time since the Great Depression in the 1930s. In 2020, the economies of developed economies will shrink by 6.1%, and the economies of emerging markets and developing economies will shrink by 1.0%. In 2020, the US economy will shrink by 5.9%, the euro zone economy will shrink by 7.5%, and the Japanese economy will shrink by 5.2%.
The report predicts that if the epidemic subsides in the second half of this year, both developed and emerging markets and developing economies will see a certain degree of economic recovery in 2021. In 2021, the economies of developed economies will grow by 4.5%, and the economies of emerging markets and developing economies will grow by 6.6%.
The report also pointed out that if the epidemic does not subside in the second half of this year, global GDP in 2020 may be further reduced by 3% from the baseline forecast; if the epidemic continues into 2021, the growth next year may be further reduced by 8% from the baseline forecast.
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinat said on the same day that there are still significant uncertainties in the duration and economic impact of the new crown epidemic, and many countries are also facing public health crises, financial crises, and sharp declines in commodity prices. Multiple crises intertwined by various factors. Policy makers need to ensure that people ’s lives can be met during this period, and businesses can resume operations after the worst stage of the epidemic has passed. Multilateral cooperation is also crucial to curbing the spread of the epidemic and supporting the healthy recovery of the global economy. (Finish)