(Economic Observation) China's foreign trade has improved in March
China News Agency, Beijing, April 14 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) China's import and export value in March narrowed year-on-year to 0.8%, compared with 9.6% in the first two months. Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and the director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said the impact of the epidemic was obvious, but it improved in March. Beijing scholars said in an interview with the China News Service that China ’s foreign trade situation in the second quarter is expected to be better than in the first quarter, but uncertainty remains.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 14th, China's imports and exports have achieved positive growth for two consecutive months in the middle and late March. Among them, the export decline in March narrowed to 3.5%, while the decline in January-February reached 15.9%; imports increased by 2.4%, reversing the decline in January-February. In the first quarter, China's trade balance turned from a deficit in the previous two months to a surplus of 98.33 billion yuan (RMB, the same below).
While the number is increasing, the quality of China's foreign trade is also improving. In the first quarter, the decline in imports and exports of general trade methods with a longer industrial chain, higher added value, and more reflecting the independent development capabilities of enterprises was relatively small, indicating that Chinese foreign trade enterprises still have strong competitiveness; new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce growth Faster, becoming a new bright spot in China's foreign trade development.
Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that China's foreign trade picked up for three main reasons. First, the spread of the local epidemic in China has been basically blocked. The resumption of production and production continues to promote the increase in the utilization rate of foreign trade enterprises, the decline in export supply capacity and the suppression of import demand. These two major problems have been significantly improved, helping to increase both export and import; Second, China ’s export commodities are more competitive, as evidenced by the upward trend in trade between China and ASEAN. Third, short-term exchange rate fluctuations. In order to stabilize the economy, many countries have recently offered large-scale stimulus policies, and the currency has been further loosened, which has led to a relative appreciation of the renminbi, which has led to a rebound in imports.
Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Cooperation Research Center of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce of China, believes that the continuous increase in the trade volume between China and the countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” in the first quarter has also provided support for China's foreign trade recovery.
Official data show that in the first quarter, China ’s imports and exports along the “Belt and Road” reached 2.07 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year, of which imports and exports to ASEAN and Russia increased by 6.1% and 5.7%, respectively.
At present, the global epidemic situation is still accelerating. According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, there have been more than 1.91 million confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide, and nearly 120,000 people have died. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said that due to the epidemic, the world economy will face its worst recession since the Great Depression this year. The WTO forecasts that global merchandise trade will shrink by 13% -32% in 2020, which is higher than the decline during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
Zhang Jianping said that how long it will take for China's major trading partners to control the epidemic, and whether it can be resumed in an orderly manner, is currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether China's foreign trade will continue to pick up momentum in the second quarter. At present, China should actively communicate with major trading partners on the progress of anti-epidemic work and strive to reduce unnecessary trade barriers.
In Zhao Ping's view, although the situation of China's foreign trade in the second quarter is still relatively severe, the overall upward trend is expected to continue. The trend of China's foreign trade in the whole year may be "low before high".
On the one hand, Europe and the United States have shown signs of resuming production. Thousands of stores across Austria reopened on the 14th, and shopping malls, large shops and hair salons will resume operations on May 1. The Spanish government has begun to design a plan to relax restrictive policies in the next phase, and states in the United States have also begun discussions on restarting economic activities.
"This all shows signs of recovery in foreign demand. The most difficult period for China's foreign trade is coming to an end, and we see the" dawn "," Zhao Ping said.
On the other hand, under the epidemic situation, the innovation capabilities and market development capabilities of Chinese foreign trade companies will be further enhanced, and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” will become an important support for stabilizing foreign trade. In addition, the effects of stimulus policies issued by various countries will gradually appear, which will help boost demand, stabilize the economy, and bring benefits to China's exports.
Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, also said that the difficulties facing China's foreign trade development should not be underestimated. However, China's foreign trade has strong resilience and competitiveness, and its enterprises' innovation ability and market development ability are also very strong. "I have confidence in stabilizing the basic foreign trade plate." (Finish)