Covid-19: what impact on conflict zones?

Text by: Arnaud Jouve Follow

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is already having far-reaching and multiple consequences across the globe. As countries try to organize to cope, what is going on in conflict zones? How is the global health crisis expressed in countries at war and what can be the consequences? State of play in crisis zones.

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In the midst of a global health crisis, on March 26, the Director General of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Robert Mardini, launched an emergency appeal to help the populations of countries at war with coronavirus. " Countries at war must not be forgotten, " he told the French newspaper Le Monde , stressing not only the need to act as quickly as possible to combat the devastating effects of the coronavirus on these particularly vulnerable populations, but also to alert on the global repercussions that this could have.

This concern is shared by the Crisis Group analysis center, in the preface to one of their latest reports entitled “Covid-19 and conflicts: seven trends to watch out for” , which says that it is “ particularly concerned about the convergences between the issues global health and wars or political situations that could give rise to new crises or exacerbate existing crises . ”

On March 27, during a virtual press briefing from New York, the UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, declared: " The fury with which the virus is falling clearly shows that waging war is madness. This is the reason why I am calling today for an immediate ceasefire, everywhere in the world. "

After a bombardment in the Idlib province of Syria in May 2019. Abdulaziz KETAZ / AFP

The poor health supply in conflict zones

In devastated battlefields and in crisis zones, where protracted protests have taken place, health systems are no longer functioning or are considerably weakened and therefore unable to cope with the coronavirus.

In all these areas, the health supply is already lacking and extremely reduced when it still exists. In Yemen, for example , according to the ICRC, after five years of war, in a country where 24 million people are in need of humanitarian aid, 50% of health structures are not functional because their staff cannot go there and no longer receive a salary. The same situation prevails in Syria, where half of the hospitals and centers for women and children were no longer functioning before the pandemic, while the bombardments continue, particularly in Idleb, in the north of the country.

Whether we are talking about Afghanistan, Somalia or the Sahel, each crisis zone is confronted with problems of health responses often aggravated by multiple factors which can be as well due to poor crisis management, the corruption, only because of international sanctions.

In its latest report, Crisis Group cites several cases:

• Iran, severely affected while being the victim of sanctions imposed by the United States
• Venezuela, due to the confrontation between the Chavista government and the opposition which has put the entire health system in trouble
• Gaza, Palestine, where health systems weakened by years of blockade are struggling to acquire equipment and organize.
• This is also the case in Libya, where the Tripoli government, recognized by the UN, has pledged to devote around 350 million dollars to combat the impacts of Covid-19, whereas, as the study, it is difficult to know what will be used for this sum, because the health system collapsed after the departure of foreign doctors during the war.

In addition, when countries face serious security challenges, institutions are weakened and trust in governments and politicians can be eroded with serious consequences, as was the case during the Ebola epidemic in 2014. in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In a report at the time, Crisis Group noted on this epidemic that “ at first, the virus had spread uncontrollably, not only because of the limited epidemiological monitoring and the lack of capacity and reactivity of the health, but also because people remained skeptical of government declarations and directives ", adding retrospectively:" This questioning was partly linked to misinformation and bad advice from the governments involved regarding contagion, but it also stemmed from recurrent political tensions in a region marked by war during the last decade. "

During a distribution of sacks of flour at the humanitarian aid center of the port city of Hodeidah, June 14, 2018. REUTERS / Abduljabbar Zeyad

The difficulties of international aid

Faced with these disastrous situations and the inability of states in crisis to provide a response commensurate with needs, international aid is being organized and is trying to compensate for emergencies. Interventions that are always complicated to carry out even sometimes in times of serious epidemic crises, as we saw during the polio epidemic in Syria in 2013, 2014 or during the cholera epidemic in Yemen since 2016.

More recently, in 2019 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the World Health Organization (WHO) and international NGOs had great difficulty in containing an Ebola epidemic that was developing in the east of the country. Crisis Group notes that " despite the support of UN peacekeepers, violent local militias were blocking access to some of the areas affected by the epidemic and in some cases, fighters were targeting doctors and medical infrastructure. Even though the Congolese authorities and the WHO have apparently managed to end the epidemic in recent months, it has lasted longer and claimed more victims (in total 2,264 confirmed deaths) than if the epidemic had affected a stable region ”(a new case of Ebola death was revealed on April 10).

Beyond the difficulties linked to insecurity that risk hampering aid in these areas, the situation is particularly worrying for doctors and national and international humanitarian actors who could have difficulty obtaining aid for the populations. necessary also because of the pandemic. In Yemen for example, which risks being, with the besieged enclave of Idleb in Syria, among the current conflict zones most affected, international flights have been suspended to prevent the spread of Covid-19, as well as Sanaa only in Aden, when the hospitals are already very weak, there are serious water problems and the international rescue teams have kept only the essential members of their personnel on the spot.

General view of the Baga Sola refugee camp in southern Chad, which hosted more than 10,000 displaced people from Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad, due to the threat of Boko Haram. MICHELE CATTANI / AFP

The case of the displaced

As a result of the crises, displaced populations are among the most exposed to health risks. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, in 2019, the internally displaced represented more than 70 million people worldwide and we know that this number is already exceeded given the different conflicts in progress, does not if only in light of recent events in Syria.

However, history has shown that contagion problems are often multiplied among the internally displaced and in particular in the refugee camps, even if these camps have minimum health services.

In Bangladesh, as Crisis Group reports, in the Rohingya refugee camps, more than a million people live in overcrowded shelters with sanitation and care reduced to the bare minimum. In addition, the high rate of malnutrition and the inability of camp residents to have access to prevention messages, following the government ban on the use of mobile phones and the internet in the camps, may create a catastrophic situation if the Covid-19 arrives. Because it could spread like wildfire contaminating the camp and the people of the region.

Another worrying situation is the al-Hol camp in north-eastern Syria, where 70,000 people have fled, fleeing the Islamic State group. A population of men, women, Syrian and Iraqi children and more than 10,000 people from other countries, all in a state of total vulnerability. Crisis Group, in the fall of 2019, wrote about this camp: “ It is a scene of humanitarian tragedy, infested with disease. Residents lack food, clean water, and often lack access to medical services . ”

Finally, in the event of an outbreak of coronaviruses, displaced persons and refugees may also decide to move in order to find safety, and create movements that may worry states. On the American continent, for example, Brazil and Colombia initially welcomed those fleeing the crisis in Venezuela, then closed their borders to them. The administration of Donald Trump, who is trying to prevent refugees from Central America from entering the United States, has hardened its position, in particular with the development of the pandemic and the returns to host countries, which has led to the In mid-March, Guatemala and El Salvador closed their air borders to all those who were deported from the United States. Same problem in Mexico and in a whole already fragile Central America who see in these expulsions and the return of these refugees a risk of spreading the virus. Rejections which can aggravate violence and also generate new crises.

Somalia has been plunged into chaos since 1991, and in particular has had to face since 2007 the radical Islamist insurgents Shebabs, affiliated to Al-Qaeda. (Illustrative image) Getty Images

The impact of the pandemic on crises

It is impossible at this time to prejudge the impacts of the coronavirus on a global level and, in particular, in crisis zones which are all in a situation of extreme fragility, knowing that obviously the consequences will be considerable in multiple fields. As Crisis Group comments, " We do not yet know when and where the virus will hit the hardest and how the economic, social or political aspects will combine to trigger or worsen the crises. Nor is it certain that the consequences of the pandemic will be entirely or uniformly negative for peace and security. Natural disasters have sometimes calmed conflicts, when rival parties have been forced to cooperate, or at least maintain calm, to focus their attention on the protection and reconstruction of their societies . ”

The pandemic risks worsening certain international crises, but it could also be the occasion to stop others and to change the course of a history which seemed inevitable. The UAE and Kuwait’s proposal to send health aid to Iran hard hit by Covid-19 or the recent ceasefire request from Riyadh to Yemen may be among them already illustrations.

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